Barack Obama stepped onto the inaugural stage in 2009 with a massive 69% approval rating. People were excited. It was a "honeymoon" period in the truest sense of the word. But honestly, if you look at the Obama approval rating over time, that number was never going to stay in the stratosphere.
Politics is messy. The economy was in a tailspin when he took over, and by the time he left in 2017, the country felt fundamentally different. His final average sat at 47.9%. That sounds kinda low, right? Especially when you compare it to someone like Kennedy, who averaged 70.1%. But averages are tricky. They hide the drama of the peaks and the slog of the valleys.
Obama's numbers tell a story of a country becoming deeply, almost stubbornly, divided. He didn't have the wild swings of George W. Bush, who hit 90% after 9/11 and then crashed to 25% during the Great Recession. Instead, Obama stayed in a relatively narrow 31-point range. He never hit 70%, but he also never tanked into the 20s. He was remarkably steady, even when the world felt like it was falling apart.
The Long Slide and the Midterm Blues
By 2010, the honeymoon was officially over. The Affordable Care Act (ACA)—or "Obamacare"—was the big culprit here. While it eventually became more popular, its birth was painful. Republicans hated it. 85% of them disapproved of the law according to Pew Research. This polarization is the "new normal" we live in now, but it really solidified during those first two years of his term.
His approval dropped below the 50% mark early in his second year. It stayed there for a while.
👉 See also: Casey Ramirez: The Small Town Benefactor Who Smuggled 400 Pounds of Cocaine
Key Low Points
- August 2011: 38% (The debt ceiling crisis and a sluggish recovery).
- October 2011: 38% (Continued economic frustration).
- September 2014: 38% (Midterm election pressure and foreign policy concerns).
The 2014 midterms were a "shellacking," as he famously put it. Voters were frustrated. The recovery from the 2008 crash felt slow for a lot of people in the Rust Belt and rural America. You've probably seen the maps—the blue wall was starting to show some cracks long before 2016.
The Bin Laden Bump and Re-election
It wasn't all downward slides. In May 2011, U.S. Navy SEALs took out Osama bin Laden. Predictably, his rating jumped to 52%. It was a rare moment of national unity, but it was fleeting. These "rally-round-the-flag" effects don't last like they used to. Within weeks, the numbers drifted back down to the mid-40s as the focus shifted back to gas prices and unemployment.
Re-election in 2012 was another peak. He managed to climb back to 52% or 53% right around the time he defeated Mitt Romney. It’s a pattern we see often: a president's base gets energized, the campaign spends millions on positive messaging, and the numbers move. But as soon as the second term started, the "second-term curse" seemed to kick in. Gridlock in D.C. became the defining feature of his final four years.
Why the Final Year Changed Everything
Something interesting happened in 2016. As the race to succeed him heated up, Obama’s approval started climbing again. By the time he left office in January 2017, he hit 59%. That’s actually one of the highest exit ratings in history. Only Bill Clinton (66%) and Ronald Reagan (63%) left on a higher note in the modern era.
✨ Don't miss: Lake Nyos Cameroon 1986: What Really Happened During the Silent Killer’s Release
Why the late surge? Kinda simple, actually. The economy was finally humming. Unemployment was under 5%. Also, let's be real: for many people, the choice between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton made them look back at the Obama years with a bit of nostalgia.
The Polarization Gap
The most shocking stat isn't his average; it's the gap between parties.
- Democrats: 83% average approval.
- Republicans: 13% average approval.
- The Gap: 70 points.
Before Obama, the average party gap was about 34 points (from Eisenhower to Carter). Obama basically doubled the level of partisan disagreement in the polls. It wasn't necessarily just about him—it was about the era. We stopped looking at "the job" and started looking at "the team."
What We Can Learn From the Data
Looking at the Obama approval rating over time isn't just a history lesson; it's a roadmap for how modern presidencies work. You're never going to see 80% approval again. It's just not happening in a world of fragmented media and social media echo chambers.
🔗 Read more: Why Fox Has a Problem: The Identity Crisis at the Top of Cable News
Actionable Insights for Following Polling Trends:
- Look at the floor, not just the ceiling. A president's "floor" (the lowest they go) tells you how loyal their base is. Obama's floor was high (38%), suggesting a very loyal core.
- Ignore the one-week "bumps." Events like the Bin Laden raid or a good State of the Union usually fade within 21 days.
- Economic lag is real. The public often takes 6 to 12 months to "feel" an improving economy in their approval of the president. Obama's best economic years (2014-2015) didn't show up in his approval ratings until late 2016.
- Watch the Independents. They are the only ones who actually move the needle. Partisans are locked in from day one.
If you want to understand where a president is going, don't look at the national average. Look at the specific disapproval numbers in swing states and among independent voters. That is where the real story of the Obama years—and every presidency since—is actually written.
To get a better handle on how these numbers compare to the current political climate, you should track the "Net Approval" (Approval minus Disapproval) rather than just the top-line number. It gives a much clearer picture of whether a leader is gaining or losing the room. Check out historical data on the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center to see these charts in real-time.