Honestly, Oakland politics feels like a fever dream lately. Just when you think things are settling down, the town throws a curveball that leaves everyone scrambling for their voter guides. If you’ve been following the news, you know that 2025 was a total whirlwind. After Sheng Thao became the first mayor in Oakland history to be successfully recalled back in November 2024, the city went through a revolving door of interim leaders—Nikki Fortunato Bas for a minute, then Kevin Jenkins—before landing on a special election in April 2025.
Barbara Lee won that special election. The legendary Congresswoman, who has spent nearly three decades in D.C., decided to come home and steer the ship. But here is the thing: because that was a special election to fill the remainder of Thao's term, we are doing this all over again in November 2026.
The 2026 race is basically the "sequel" that might end up being more intense than the original.
The Heavyweights Reassembling for 2026
You’ve probably seen the names on lawn signs for years. It's kinda funny how the same circle of people keeps showing up, but the stakes have never been higher. Oakland is staring down a massive budget deficit—we're talking nine figures—and public safety remains the "elephant in the room" that nobody can ignore.
Barbara Lee is the incumbent now. She’s 79 years old, which some critics point to, but she has the kind of political "clout" and fundraising machine that makes her incredibly hard to beat. She ran on the idea of being the "elder in the room" to stabilize a chaotic City Hall. But being the incumbent in Oakland is a double-edged sword. Every pothole, every budget cut, and every crime statistic now lands squarely on her desk.
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Then there is Loren Taylor. The guy just won't quit, and his supporters love him for it. He lost to Sheng Thao by a razor-thin margin of about 677 votes in 2022. Then he lost to Lee in the 2025 special election by roughly 5 points. He’s a biomedical engineer by trade and brings a very "data-driven" approach to the table. He’s basically the favorite of the Oakland Hills and the business community, focusing heavily on "zero-based budgeting" and accountability.
Why This Race Isn't Just a Two-Person Show
While Lee and Taylor get the most airtime, the 2026 field is likely to be crowded. Oakland uses Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV), which fundamentally changes how people campaign. In a standard "winner-take-all" system, candidates attack each other to be #1. In RCV, you actually want to be the "second choice" for your opponent's supporters. It creates some weird alliances.
Take a look at the "outsider" or progressive candidates who keep the conversation spicy:
- Renia Webb: A former staffer for Sheng Thao who turned into one of her vocal critics. She brings a "whistleblower" energy to the race that resonates with people tired of City Hall insiders.
- Carroll Fife: While she declined to run in the 2025 special election to avoid splitting the progressive vote against Barbara Lee, 2026 is a different story. As a sitting Councilmember and a leader in the "Moms 4 Housing" movement, she represents the far-left flank of Oakland politics.
- The "Wildcards": You’ve got people like Elizabeth Swaney (yes, the Olympic skier who became a meme) and Peter Liu, who always adds a level of unpredictability to the debates.
The Issues That Will Actually Decide the Vote
Basically, if a candidate doesn't have a plan for the $100M+ budget deficit, they aren't serious. Oakland is broke. Like, "contemplating selling the Coliseum to pay the bills" broke.
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Public safety is the other big one. In the 2025 special election, the candidates were split. Taylor leaned more into "hard choices" and supporting the police department's staffing levels. Lee took a more "holistic" approach, trying to balance police funding with social services, though even she has had to get tougher on crime as the city's mood shifted.
- The Budget: We’re looking at potential layoffs for city workers.
- Housing and Homelessness: The encampments under the 880 or near Wood Street are constant reminders of the crisis.
- Retail Theft: It's why your local Target or CVS has everything behind plexiglass.
Most people get the "Oakland CA mayoral candidates" narrative wrong by assuming it's a battle between "Progressives" and "Moderates." In reality, it’s a battle between people who think the city is fundamentally broken and people who think it just needs better management.
What You Should Do Now
The 2026 election might feel far away, but the "invisible primary" is happening right now. Candidates are already filing paperwork and, more importantly, looking for donors. If you live in Oakland, your "power" isn't just in the ballot you'll cast in November.
Check your registration status. Since the recall and the special election, some polling places have shifted. Ensure you’re still registered at your current address via the Alameda County Registrar of Voters website.
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Follow the money. Look at the campaign finance disclosures that come out every few months. Who is funding these candidates? Is it local grassroots donors or big-money PACs from outside the city? That usually tells you more about how a mayor will govern than any stump speech.
Attend a City Council meeting. It’s boring, I know. But seeing how potential candidates like Carroll Fife or Kevin Jenkins handle actual policy decisions right now will give you a much better "vibe check" than a 30-second campaign ad.
Oakland is at a crossroads. We’ve had three mayors in as many years if you count the interims. Whether we stick with Barbara Lee's experience or pivot to a new direction like Taylor or a progressive challenger, 2026 is going to be the year that determines if Oakland finally finds its footing or stays in this cycle of political whiplash.