New York City in January is basically a giant game of meteorological roulette. You wake up thinking it’s a "puffy coat" kind of morning, and by 2 PM, you're sweating in the subway while carrying that same coat like a dead weight. If you’re checking the NYC weather next 30 days, you’re probably looking for a straight answer on whether we’re actually getting a real winter or just another month of "slushy rain" disappointment.
Honestly, the outlook for the next month—mid-January through mid-February 2026—is looking a bit chaotic. We aren't in a deep freeze yet, but the patterns are shifting.
The Immediate Forecast: A Weekend Tease
Right now, as of January 16, 2026, the city is sitting in a weird pocket of "overcast and annoyed." But that’s about to change.
Forecasters at the National Weather Service are tracking a system for this coming weekend that has everyone on "snow watch" again. It's not going to be a blockbuster. Don't go buying out all the bread and milk just yet. We’re looking at a light wintry mix starting late Friday night into Saturday.
The problem? Temperatures are hovering right around that 32-degree mark.
One degree higher and it’s just a miserable, cold rain that ruins your suede boots. One degree lower and we get a "snow globe" vibe in Central Park. Expect Saturday to be the wildcard day, with highs near 40°F, which likely means any morning snow turns into a drizzly mess by the afternoon. Sunday will feel sharper, with temps dipping back into the low 30s.
NYC Weather Next 30 Days: The February Shift
When we look deeper into the NYC weather next 30 days, the long-range models—including the ones the Farmers' Almanac and NOAA use—suggest a tale of two halves.
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The rest of January is staying pretty "on brand" for a weak La Niña year. That means we’re seeing temperatures that are slightly below average, with more days in the 30s than the 40s. It's cold, but it’s a dry kind of cold.
But then February hits.
February 2026 is actually trending warmer than usual. The "Atlantic Corridor" long-range forecast suggests February might see temperatures about 5 degrees above the historical average. We're talking daytime highs reaching into the mid-40s or even low 50s during the second week of the month.
What about the snow?
Everyone asks this. If you want the real data, the "snowiest" window for the next 30 days is likely the very end of February.
- Late January: Sunny and cold, but mostly dry.
- Early February: A warm-up. Rain is more likely than snow during the first two weeks.
- Late February: This is when the "clash of the air masses" happens. There is a projected snowstorm risk around the last week of February as colder air tries to fight its way back in.
Why the "Feel Like" Temp Matters More
In New York, the actual temperature is a lie. The wind tunnels between skyscrapers like the One Vanderbilt or the canyons of Wall Street can make a 35-degree day feel like 15.
During the next 30 days, we're expecting the wind to stay pretty consistent out of the Northwest. If you’re walking across the Brooklyn Bridge or standing on a subway platform, that "RealFeel" index is going to be your best friend (or worst enemy).
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Average vs. Reality
Usually, NYC averages a high of 39°F in January. This year, we’re seeing a lot of 32°F and 34°F days. It’s a subtle difference, but it’s enough to keep the ice from melting on the sidewalks.
Survival Tips for the Next Month
If you're living here or just visiting for Fashion Week (which is coming up in February), you need a strategy.
Layers are non-negotiable. The subway is basically a sauna in the winter. You'll go from 28 degrees on the street to 75 degrees on the 4 train. Wear a base layer that breathes.
Watch the "Slush Puddles." New York puddles are deceptively deep. That corner of 42nd and 8th? It might look like an inch of slush, but it's a six-inch deep lake of freezing gray water. Waterproof boots are the only way to survive the next 30 days.
Moisturize. The humidity drops significantly in late January. Your skin will notice before you do.
What to Expect Week-by-Week
The pattern for the NYC weather next 30 days looks something like this:
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The current week (Jan 16-23) stays chilly with that potential snow tease this weekend. After that, we enter a "deep freeze" period where night-time lows could hit the teens.
By the first week of February, the "January Thaw" arrives—just a little late. We’ll see more rain and cloud cover, which is sort of depressing but at least you won't need the heavy-duty parka every single day.
The biggest takeaway? Don't trust a sunny morning. This time of year, the sky can go from bright blue to "Ominous Gray" in the time it takes to grab a bagel.
Keep an eye on the local radar, especially on Saturday mornings. The transition from snow to rain is the most dangerous part of NYC winter—it makes the stairs to the subway incredibly slick.
If you're planning any outdoor activities like the Bryant Park ice rink, aim for the last week of January. The ice holds up better when the temps stay below 35, and the crowds usually thin out after the New Year's tourists finally head home.
Actionable Insight: Check the wind speed before you leave the house. A 40-degree day with 20 mph winds is significantly more brutal than a 30-degree day with no wind. Invest in a good neck gaiter; it’s the most underrated piece of NYC winter gear.