Politics in New York usually feels like a scripted drama where the incumbent wins, the machine hums along, and the voters mostly just watch. But the 2025 cycle? Honestly, it was a total fever dream. If you’ve been following the nyc mayoral race odds, you know the script didn’t just get flipped—it got shredded and thrown into the East River. We went from an indicted sitting mayor to a Democratic Socialist 34-year-old taking the keys to City Hall.
Basically, nobody saw Zohran Mamdani coming until he was already in the lead.
How the odds shifted when Adams stepped out
Early in 2025, the betting markets were a mess. Eric Adams was fighting a federal indictment involving bribery and fraud, yet some analysts still thought the power of incumbency would carry him through. In late 2024, firms like Honan Strategy Group were still calling him the favorite. But then the funding dried up. The New York City Campaign Finance Board denied him millions in matching funds, and by September 2025, Adams officially threw in the towel.
The nyc mayoral race odds instantly went into a tailspin.
With Adams out, the vacuum was filled by a three-way brawl:
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- Zohran Mamdani: The Democratic nominee who ran on a "tax the rich" platform.
- Andrew Cuomo: Running as an independent on his "Fight and Deliver" line.
- Curtis Sliwa: The Republican staple who, as usual, campaigned on a heavy public safety message.
By August 2025, Mamdani’s win probability on platforms like ForecastEx had surged to 77%. By the time we hit November, the markets on Polymarket and Kalshi were effectively calling it a done deal, giving him a massive 90% chance of victory.
Why the polling and betting markets got it right
Most people think polls are always wrong these days. But in the final weeks of the NYC race, the data was actually pretty consistent. A late October poll from Emerson College showed Mamdani with a 25-point lead over Cuomo. He wasn't just winning; he was dominating the under-50 demographic with nearly 69% support.
Cuomo, meanwhile, was leaning hard into his "experienced leader" brand. It sort of worked with older voters, where he was neck-and-neck with Mamdani (31% to 39%), but he couldn't bridge the gap with the younger crowd. Even a last-minute endorsement from Elon Musk for Cuomo didn't move the needle. In fact, some pundits called it a "kiss of death" in a city that’s deep, deep blue.
The final result on November 4th reflected that. Mamdani pulled 1,114,184 votes (50.9%), becoming the first mayoral candidate since 1969 to break the million-vote mark. Cuomo finished with 41.4%, and Sliwa trailed at 7%.
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The surprising stats behind the 2025 win
It’s easy to look at the nyc mayoral race odds and just see numbers, but the demographics tell a weirder story. Mamdani didn’t just win progressives; he made massive inroads with Asian American voters, pulling 67% of that group according to Quinnipiac data.
- Age Matters: The generational divide was a chasm. Mamdani had 62% of the 18-34 vote.
- The Cuomo Ceiling: Despite being a former Governor, 58% of voters viewed Cuomo unfavorably by the end of the race.
- Voter Turnout: We saw a massive jump here. Turnout hit 43.47%, the highest since the early 90s.
People were energized—or maybe just terrified. Depends on who you ask.
What does this mean for the city's future?
Now that the race is over and the odds have settled into reality, the focus is on what a Mamdani administration actually looks like. He’s the youngest mayor since 1892. His big pitch? A $1 billion Department of Community Safety to send mental health workers to the subways instead of just more cops.
It’s a huge gamble.
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If you’re watching the markets now, the "odds" are shifting toward whether his policies will actually pass the City Council. Skeptics like former Comptroller Scott Stringer have already labeled some of his housing plans as "campaign fodder," but with over a million votes in his pocket, Mamdani has a mandate that’s hard to ignore.
Actionable insights for following NYC politics
If you want to keep track of where the city is headed post-election, don't just look at the headlines.
- Monitor the City Council's "Progressive Caucus" size: This determines if Mamdani’s rent freeze and tax hike proposals have a prayer.
- Watch the MTA's budget reports: Mamdani promised big transit changes; the math will tell you if they're happening.
- Check the 2026 state legislative priorities: NYC's biggest moves often require Albany's permission.
The 2025 election proved that New York isn't as predictable as we thought. The nyc mayoral race odds started with an incumbent and ended with an upset that will change the city's trajectory for the next four years.