Politics in New York City is basically a blood sport, and if you've been following the nyc mayoral primary polling lately, you know the numbers have been doing backflips. It's wild. Honestly, just a few months ago, the conventional wisdom said Andrew Cuomo was the inevitable comeback kid, sweeping the five boroughs with name recognition and a massive war chest.
Then June happened.
The 2025 Democratic primary didn't just break the mold; it smashed it. Zohran Mamdani, an Assemblymember from Queens who many "experts" dismissed as a niche progressive, didn't just win—he fundamentally reshaped the city's electoral map. While early polling from firms like Marist and Emerson showed Cuomo with a double-digit lead in the spring, the actual primary results told a different story. In the final round of Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), Mamdani pulled off a massive upset, securing 56.4% of the vote to Cuomo's 43.6%.
It turns out, being well-known isn't the same as being well-liked.
Why NYC Mayoral Primary Polling Didn't See the Upset Coming
Pollsters have a hell of a time with New York. You’ve got a massive population, a dizzying array of languages, and a primary system that feels like it requires a PhD to navigate.
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Most early nyc mayoral primary polling focused on "first-choice" preferences. In May 2025, Marist had Cuomo at 37% and Mamdani at a distant 18%. But RCV is a game of alliances. While Cuomo was the first choice for many, he was the last choice for almost everyone else. His "unfavorable" ratings were consistently north of 50% in Siena and Quinnipiac polls.
When candidates like Brad Lander and Adrienne Adams were eliminated in the early rounds of the June 24 primary, their supporters didn't just vanish. They flocked to Mamdani.
The Breakdown of the June Primary Results
The raw numbers from the Board of Elections show exactly where the polls missed the mark. Looking at the first-round votes:
- Zohran Mamdani: 43.8%
- Andrew Cuomo: 36.1%
- Brad Lander: 11.2%
- Adrienne Adams: 4.1%
The "Cuomo lead" that showed up in March and April was based on a field that included Eric Adams, who later dropped out to run as an independent (and then basically stopped campaigning altogether). Once the field narrowed, the progressive block consolidated with surgical precision.
The "Invisible" Voters of the Outer Boroughs
If you only read the Manhattan-based pundits, you’d think the race was decided in brownstone Brooklyn. You'd be wrong.
Mamdani’s surge was fueled by a massive uptick in Latino and Asian American support that pollsters initially missed. By June, Marist noticed Mamdani’s support among Latino voters had doubled to 41%. This wasn't just a "vibes" shift. It was a ground game that turned "undecideds" into "likely voters" in places like Astoria and Sunset Park.
Cuomo, for his part, held onto the Bronx (49% in early polls) and parts of Queens, but his path narrowed when he couldn't break into the youth vote. Quinnipiac’s data was brutal on this front: 62% of voters aged 18-34 backed Mamdani. You just can't win a primary in this city anymore if the under-40 crowd is actively campaigning against you.
What the Polls Told Us About Issues
It wasn't just about personalities. The nyc mayoral primary polling throughout 2025 showed a massive disconnect between what the media talked about and what voters cared about.
- Housing vs. Crime: Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa (running on the Republican side) hammered the crime narrative. But for Mamdani voters, affordable housing was the #1 issue by a landslide—76% cited it as their top priority in Quinnipiac's October surveys.
- The Trump Factor: A staggering 72% of Democratic primary voters wanted a mayor who would explicitly oppose the federal administration. Mamdani leaned into this "bulwark" role, while Cuomo’s "Fight and Deliver" brand felt, to some, like a relic of a different era.
- The Incumbency Trap: Eric Adams’ approval rating hit an all-time low of 20% in March 2025. This created a "change" vacuum. Any candidate associated with the status quo was essentially DOA.
Looking Toward 2026 and Beyond
So, where does this leave us? The primary is over, and Mamdani is currently sitting in Gracie Mansion after defeating Cuomo (who ran as an independent) and Sliwa in November. But the polling lessons are already being applied to the 2026 legislative cycles.
Brad Lander, who finished third in the mayoral primary, has already launched a 2026 bid for NY-10 against Dan Goldman, backed by the same "Mamdani coalition" of the Working Families Party and progressive heavyweights like Bernie Sanders.
The most important takeaway? nyc mayoral primary polling is only as good as its ability to track the "transfer" of votes in an RCV system. If a poll isn't asking about second and third choices, it's basically useless.
Actionable Insights for the Next Election Cycle
If you're trying to make sense of the next round of NYC political data, don't just look at the top-line number. Do this instead:
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- Check the "Unfavorable" Ceiling: In NYC, a candidate with a 50%+ unfavorable rating almost always loses in RCV, because they can't pick up transfers from eliminated candidates.
- Watch the "Enthusiasm" Gap: In September 2025, 56% of Mamdani's supporters said they were "very enthusiastic," compared to only 34% for Cuomo. Enthusiastic voters show up; name-recognition voters stay home if it rains.
- Ignore "All Voter" Polls: New York is a deep blue city. The only poll that matters for the mayoralty is the "Likely Democratic Primary Voter" screen.
- Monitor the Borough Splits: A candidate who wins Manhattan and Brooklyn but loses the Bronx and Queens is in trouble. Mamdani won by building a bridge between the "activist" base in Brooklyn/Manhattan and the immigrant working class in Queens.
New York's political landscape is shifting. The era of the "celebrity executive" might be giving way to the era of the "organizer-in-chief." Whether that holds for the 2026 midterms is anyone's guess, but the numbers suggest the old playbook is officially in the shredder.