New York City politics is basically a blood sport. If you've lived here long enough, you know the vibe. But the 2025 cycle? That was something else entirely. We saw a sitting mayor, Eric Adams, deal with federal charges that looked like a plot from a gritty TV drama. We saw the return of Andrew Cuomo, trying to claw back into relevance as an independent. And then, there was the guy who actually won: Zohran Mamdani.
Honestly, looking back at the NYC mayoral election polling, most of the "experts" were scratching their heads for months. They kept waiting for the "Cuomo comeback" or for the Republican side to consolidate. It didn't happen. Instead, Mamdani—a 34-year-old Democratic Socialist—tapped into a level of frustration that the polls only started catching in the final weeks.
The numbers tell a story of a city that was tired. Tired of the scandals, sure, but mostly tired of not being able to afford a one-bedroom in a neighborhood that doesn't require a two-mile hike to the subway.
Why the Polls Kept Shifting (and Why They Mattered)
Early on, if you looked at the NYC mayoral election polling from organizations like Quinnipiac or Marist, Andrew Cuomo looked like a titan. Back in March 2025, when he first announced he was running, some polls had him leading the Democratic pack by double digits. People remember the name. They remember the daily COVID briefings.
But name recognition is a double-edged sword.
While Cuomo had the "I know that guy" factor, his favorability ratings were, well, kinda terrible. A March 2025 Quinnipiac poll showed that while he led the field with 31% support, a massive chunk of the city still held a "very unfavorable" view of him. You can't run a city on nostalgia if half the people don't want you in the room.
The Eric Adams Collapse
You can't talk about the polls without talking about the incumbent. Eric Adams hit a record low. We are talking 20% approval rating territory. That is historically bad. By the time he suspended his campaign in September 2025, the writing wasn't just on the wall; it was a neon sign.
Polls from the Manhattan Institute in early 2025 showed he was underwater in almost every borough except Queens. Even in Brooklyn, his home turf, the disapproval was hovering around 53%. When a sitting mayor loses his base, the shark scent is in the water.
The Mamdani Surge
Zohran Mamdani’s rise was the "shock" that shouldn't have been a shock. He wasn't just a progressive candidate; he was the affordability candidate. While Cuomo talked about "experience" and Curtis Sliwa talked about "crime," Mamdani talked about freezing rents.
The polling started to reflect this shift in June 2025 during the primary.
- Primary Result: Mamdani pulled 56.39% of the vote against Cuomo’s 43.61% in the final round of ranked-choice voting.
- The Independent Pivot: Cuomo didn't take the hint. He launched an independent bid, thinking he could pull moderate Democrats and Republicans.
The General Election: A Three-Way Mess
By October 2025, the NYC mayoral election polling was starting to stabilize, and it wasn't looking good for the old guard. Marist released a poll on October 30 that had Mamdani at 48%, Cuomo at 32%, and Sliwa trailing at 16%.
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What was interesting was the "enthusiasm gap."
Mamdani's voters were ready to run through brick walls. About 56% of his supporters said they were "very enthusiastic" about their choice. For Cuomo? Only 28%.
When you have a three-way race where one person has a fired-up base and the other two are splitting the "anyone but him" vote, the math is pretty simple.
Breaking Down the Boroughs
If you want to understand NYC, you look at the neighborhoods. The 2025 results showed a city deeply divided by geography and age.
- Brooklyn & Manhattan: These were Mamdani strongholds. He was pulling over 50% in the polls here. Young professionals and long-time residents in gentrifying areas were all-in on his "Rent Freeze" platform.
- Staten Island: This remained the island of the GOP. Curtis Sliwa and Cuomo fought over this territory, with Cuomo actually leading in several polls there because he was seen as a "safer" bet than a socialist.
- The Bronx & Queens: These were the true battlegrounds. These boroughs are more working-class and often more moderate. Cuomo’s focus on crime played well here, but Mamdani’s focus on the cost of living—specifically free buses—ended up winning the day.
What Most People Got Wrong About the Numbers
The biggest misconception was that Mamdani was "too radical" for the city. People kept saying New York is a moderate town at heart. But the polling showed something else. It showed that "moderate" doesn't mean much when you can't pay your ConEd bill.
Another mistake? Thinking the Republican vote would stay with Sliwa. In the final weeks, a lot of GOP voters actually flipped to Cuomo in the polls. They weren't voting for Andrew; they were voting against Zohran. But even that "strategic voting" wasn't enough to bridge a 10-point gap.
Real-World Outcomes vs. Polling Predictions
On November 4, 2025, the actual results mirrored the final polls almost perfectly.
- Mamdani: 50.78%
- Cuomo: 41.32%
- Sliwa: 7.01%
The turnout was the real story. Over 2.2 million New Yorkers voted. That’s the highest turnout since 1993. Why? Because the polls showed a close-enough race that people felt like their vote actually mattered for once. Usually, the primary is the whole game in NYC, and the general is a formality. Not this time.
The "Trump Effect" in Local Polls
Wait, why does Trump matter in a NYC mayor race? Well, Cuomo actually got an endorsement from Donald Trump (which Cuomo declined, funnily enough). This created a bizarre ripple in the polling. It helped Cuomo with some Republicans in Staten Island, but it absolutely killed him with independent voters in Manhattan who wanted nothing to do with that brand.
Actionable Insights for the Next Cycle
If you're a political junkie or just a New Yorker trying to figure out what's next, here’s the deal.
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- Watch the Rent Guidelines Board: Mamdani’s victory was built on housing. If he can't deliver on his rent-freeze promises, the 2029 polling will look very different, very fast.
- Follow the Young Voter Data: The 18-34 demographic turned out at record levels. If this group stays engaged, the "center-left" of the NYC Democratic party is effectively dead.
- Don't Trust Name ID Alone: Cuomo proved that being famous isn't a platform. Future candidates will need more than a familiar face; they'll need a specific solution to the "cost of living" crisis.
- Look at Ranked-Choice Dynamics: Even though the general was a standard vote, the primary was decided by RCV. Understanding how voters list their 2nd and 3rd choices is now more important than knowing their 1st.
The 2025-2026 transition has been wild. Mamdani was inaugurated on January 1, 2026, and the city is already watching his every move. Whether you love the new direction or you're already looking for the next challenger, one thing is certain: the NYC mayoral election polling was the most accurate map we had for a city in the middle of a massive identity crisis.
To stay ahead of the next political shift, you should monitor the monthly Quinnipiac "Mood of the City" reports. These are the gold standard for tracking whether the mayor's honeymoon period is ending or if his "Relentless Improvement" agenda is actually sticking with the people who put him there.