Politics in New York usually follows a script. You have the established incumbent, the big-name challenger, and the scrappy outsider who makes some noise but eventually fades.
Except this time, the script got shredded.
If you looked at nyc mayor race polls early in 2025, you would have bet your last subway fare on a comeback story for former Governor Andrew Cuomo or a steady, if embattled, second term for Eric Adams. But by the time January 2026 rolled around, New Yorkers were watching Zohran Mamdani take the oath of office as the city's youngest mayor in over a century.
How did the numbers miss the mark so wildly? Well, they didn't exactly miss—they just shifted so fast that by the time people processed one "frontrunner," another had already sprinted past.
The Early Dominance of Big Names
Back in March 2025, the vibe was very different. An Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill survey had Cuomo sitting pretty at 38% support in the Democratic primary. At that point, Zohran Mamdani was barely a blip on the radar with just 10%. Eric Adams, who was already dealing with legal clouds, was trailing at 8%.
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People were basically asking if Cuomo could actually pull off the ultimate political "I'm back" move. The polls showed he had a massive firewall: Black and Hispanic voters. In those early stages, 47% of Black voters and 45% of Hispanic voters were backing him. It looked like a lock. Cuomo’s pitch was experience. He leaned into the idea that the city was a mess and needed a "grown-up" in the room.
But then, the legal drama surrounding City Hall reached a fever pitch.
The Fall of the Incumbent
Eric Adams eventually pulled a move nobody saw coming. In April, he announced he was ditching the Democratic primary to run as an independent. By September, things got even weirder—he dropped out of the race entirely.
When Adams exited, the nyc mayor race polls went into a tailspin. You’d think those votes would just slide over to Cuomo, right? He was the other "moderate" in the race.
Honestly, that’s not what happened.
A Quinnipiac University poll from early October 2025, right after Adams left, showed Mamdani jumping to 46%. Cuomo was stuck at 33%, and Curtis Sliwa, the Republican staple, was holding onto 15%.
Why the Shift?
It turns out that Mamdani wasn't just some niche progressive candidate. He was building a coalition that the "experts" didn't think was possible. He absolutely dominated the youth vote. We're talking 62% of voters aged 18 to 34.
He also managed to flip the script on who "owns" the city's diverse boroughs. While Cuomo held on to the Bronx (49% in June), Mamdani started eating into his leads in Brooklyn and Manhattan.
The Final Sprint: Numbers You Can't Ignore
By late October, just days before the election, the momentum was undeniable. A Marist Poll released on October 30, 2025, showed Mamdani leading Cuomo by 16 points among likely voters.
| Group | Mamdani Support | Cuomo Support | Sliwa Support |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Likely Voters | 48% | 32% | 16% |
| Registered Democrats | 63% | 31% | 4% |
| Independent Voters | 34% | 36% | 21% |
| Age 18-34 | 64% | 20% | 7% |
| Age 65+ | 33% | 39% | 19% |
What’s wild is the enthusiasm gap.
Mamdani’s supporters weren't just "planning" to vote; they were fired up. 90% of them said they were either "very" or "somewhat" enthusiastic. Cuomo's voters? Only 69% felt that way. In New York, where turnout is usually pretty pathetic, that enthusiasm is the difference between winning and just "running a good campaign."
What Really Happened on Election Day
On November 4, 2025, the polls were finally validated. Mamdani didn't just win; he broke records. He became the first mayoral candidate since 1969 to pull in over one million votes.
The final tally:
- Zohran Mamdani (D): 50.78% (1,114,184 votes)
- Andrew Cuomo (I): 41.32% (906,614 votes)
- Curtis Sliwa (R): 7.01% (153,749 votes)
It was the highest turnout the city had seen since 1993. Why? Because young people actually showed up. Over 2.2 million New Yorkers cast a ballot, a massive jump from previous years.
Why Does This Still Matter?
If you're looking at nyc mayor race polls to understand what's next for the city in 2026 and beyond, you have to look at the issues that drove these numbers.
People weren't just voting for a person; they were voting on "rent." Mamdani’s promise to freeze rents on rent-stabilized units resonated with 76% of his supporters. Cuomo, meanwhile, was the "crime" candidate. 53% of people who cared most about public safety went for him.
The divide is basically "Can I afford to live here?" versus "Is it safe to live here?"
Actionable Insights for NYC Voters
If you're trying to make sense of the new political landscape in the city, here's the reality:
- Watch the Youth Vote: It’s no longer a myth. They showed they can decide an election if the candidate speaks to housing costs.
- Independent Lines are Tricky: Both Adams and Cuomo tried the independent route. Both found that without the "D" next to their name in the general, the math is incredibly hard to solve.
- Favorability is King: By the end, Cuomo’s "unfavorable" rating was 54%. Mamdani’s was only 35%. You can’t win if people know you but don’t like you.
The 2025 race proved that New York isn't as predictable as the pundits think. The polls weren't wrong about Cuomo's early lead, but they correctly caught the moment the city decided it wanted someone completely new.
Moving forward, any candidate who ignores the 18-49 demographic—which Mamdani carried with a whopping 69%—is basically lighting their campaign budget on fire.
The city has changed. The polls finally caught up. Now, the new administration has to actually deliver on those million-plus votes.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
To keep a pulse on how the new administration is polling against these original promises, check the monthly Marist New York City tracker or the Quinnipiac University city-resident surveys. These will be the first indicators of whether the "Mamdani Coalition" is holding together or if voter remorse is setting in.