The 2025 New York City mayoral race was, for lack of a better word, a circus. If you were glued to NYC mayor polls Real Clear Politics aggregates or refreshing Marist and Quinnipiac every morning, you probably thought you knew exactly how this was going to end. Everyone did. We all expected a battle of the titans between a sitting mayor and a former governor trying to claw back into the light.
Then everything changed.
The data we saw on Real Clear Politics through much of the year told a story of establishment dominance. But on November 4, 2025, that story was shredded. Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Democratic Socialist from Astoria, didn't just win; he obliterated the traditional playbook, becoming the city’s first Muslim and South Asian mayor.
What the Polls Got Wrong (And Right)
Early on, the numbers were practically a shrine to Andrew Cuomo. When he first entered the race in March 2025, seeking a political resurrection after his 2021 resignation, he was the runaway frontrunner. Poll after poll showed him leading the Democratic field by double digits. People like name recognition. It’s comforting, or at least familiar.
But the NYC mayor polls Real Clear Politics tracked started to show a weird, quiet shift by early summer.
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On June 24, the primary results hit like a lightning bolt. Mamdani didn't just compete; he ousted Cuomo and City Comptroller Brad Lander in what many pundits called a "major upset." Even after that, the general election polling remained tight. A late October 2025 Quinnipiac poll had Mamdani at 43% and Cuomo—who had pivoted to an independent run under the "Fight and Deliver" banner—at 33%.
What the pollsters missed was the sheer volume of the "youth quake." Young voters didn't just show up; they practically broke the system. Turnout topped 2.2 million, the highest since the early '90s.
The Eric Adams Collapse
You can't talk about the 2025 polling without talking about the incumbent. Honestly, the numbers for Eric Adams were a slow-motion train wreck. By February 2025, even with federal charges being dropped by the second Trump administration, his approval rating was stuck in the basement—around 26% according to Marist.
He eventually dropped out in September 2025. It was a wild moment. He stayed on the ballot because it was too late to scrub his name, but he was effectively a ghost candidate. His exit left a vacuum that the NYC mayor polls Real Clear Politics showed being filled largely by Cuomo, who scooped up the moderate and older voters Adams left behind.
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The Real Numbers on Election Night
When the dust settled, the "tight race" wasn't actually that tight. Mamdani secured 50.8% of the vote—over 1.1 million ballots. Cuomo, despite a massive independent war chest and a centrist platform focused on crime, finished with 41.3%. Curtis Sliwa, the Republican staple, trailed at 7%.
The final numbers looked like this:
- Zohran Mamdani (D/WFP): 1,114,184 votes
- Andrew Cuomo (IND): 906,614 votes
- Curtis Sliwa (R): 153,749 votes
Mamdani’s coalition was fascinating. He won four out of the five boroughs. Cuomo only held Staten Island. It turns out that a platform of freezing rents on rent-stabilized units and taxing millionaires resonates more with a city in an affordability crisis than a comeback tour from a former Albany power broker.
Why You Should Still Care About the Data
Even though the "upset" felt like a shock, the NYC mayor polls Real Clear Politics did hint at the underlying tension. There was a massive "Wrong Track" sentiment—66% of likely voters in late 2025 felt the city was heading in the wrong direction. When people are that unhappy, they don't vote for the status quo. They vote for the person who wants to flip the table.
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Mamdani promised a "relentless improvement" agenda. He was sworn in on January 1, 2026, by Bernie Sanders in a freezing ceremony that felt more like a rock concert than a political inauguration.
How to Use This Information Moving Forward
If you're looking at future political trends in New York, don't just look at the top-line "Who would you vote for?" numbers. You've gotta dig into the enthusiasm gaps.
Actionable Insights for the New Political Era:
- Watch the Youth Vote: The 18-34 demographic in NYC is no longer a "maybe" group; they are the kingmakers.
- Don't Discount Independent Runs: Cuomo getting 41% as an independent is actually a massive historical anomaly. It shows the Democratic party is deeply fractured between its progressive and moderate wings.
- Affordability is Everything: Any candidate not talking about rent and taxes is basically invisible to the average New Yorker right now.
The 2025 cycle proved that the "establishment" is a lot more fragile than the spreadsheets suggest. Keep an eye on the city's special elections and the upcoming Council races in 2026 to see if Mamdani's "Working Families" coalition can hold its ground or if the centrist pushback begins.
For now, the city is Mamdani's. The polls are history. The work is just starting.
If you want to track how the new administration is actually performing against those campaign promises, keep a close watch on the Mayor's Management Report (MMR) updates coming out this spring. It's the best way to see if "relentless improvement" is a policy or just a punchy slogan.