New York City politics moves fast. One minute you’re looking at a four-way slugfest, and the next, the incumbent is out and a 34-year-old Democratic Socialist is moving into Gracie Mansion. Honestly, if you haven’t checked the nyc mayor live polls since last summer, you’ve missed a total seismic shift in how this city operates.
Zohran Mamdani didn't just win; he essentially reshaped the electorate.
By the time the dust settled on November 4, 2025, Mamdani secured roughly 50.8% of the vote. That’s a massive deal for a guy who started the race with 1% name recognition in some early Emerson College surveys. He beat out heavyweights like former Governor Andrew Cuomo and the red-beret-wearing Republican Curtis Sliwa. But the road there was messy. It involved federal investigations, a late-stage withdrawal from Eric Adams, and some of the most lopsided favorability ratings we've seen in decades.
The Numbers That Defined the Race
Early on, it felt like the "Andrew Cuomo Comeback Tour." In May 2025, Marist polling had Cuomo leading the Democratic pack with 37% of the first-choice votes. People were betting on experience. They wanted someone who knew where the levers of power were, even with the baggage.
Then the momentum shifted.
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Mamdani’s ground game was relentless. By September, he had jumped to 45% support among likely voters. He wasn't just winning the "progressive" lane; he was cleaning up with Asian American voters (67% support in some polls) and young people under 50.
Why the Incumbent Dropped Out
It’s rare for a sitting mayor to just... stop. But Eric Adams saw the writing on the wall. By March 2025, his approval rating hit a rock-bottom 20% in Quinnipiac polls. That is historically bad. More than 60% of New Yorkers disapproved of his job performance, largely fueled by those federal corruption charges and concerns over community safety.
When Adams finally pulled the plug on September 28, 2025, his supporters didn't all flock to one person. Cuomo picked up a chunk of them, but it wasn't enough to bridge the gap.
Breaking Down the Mamdani vs. Cuomo Rivalry
The general election basically turned into a two-man race after Adams left. It was "Fight and Deliver" (Cuomo’s independent line) against the "Working Families Party" energy of Mamdani.
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- The Youth Gap: In the final weeks, Mamdani held a 29-point lead over Cuomo among voters under 50.
- The Experience Factor: Cuomo’s biggest selling point was that 73% of voters believed he had the right experience.
- The Trust Factor: Conversely, 54% of voters in October polls flat-out said Cuomo was "not ethical."
Mamdani played the "change" card perfectly. He focused on a Department of Community Safety and ending Gifted and Talented programs for toddlers—policies that might sound radical in the suburbs but resonated in a city frustrated with the status quo.
What the "Live" Data Shows Now
Now that we're in early 2026, the "live" part of the polling has transitioned from "who will win" to "will this actually work?"
The city is still feeling pretty pessimistic. Recent Marist data suggests 66% of New Yorkers feel the city is still heading in the wrong direction. Mamdani is in the honeymoon phase, but he’s inherited a city where 43% of families say their finances are worse than they were a year ago.
His first big test? That 2% tax on New Yorkers earning over $1 million. Polls show 66% of the city supports it, but the business community is already pushing back.
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Key Takeaways for New Yorkers
If you're trying to make sense of the current political landscape, here’s the reality:
- Watch the "Undecideds": Even in the final head-to-head polls, about 13% of voters remained unsure until the very end. This group eventually broke for Mamdani, choosing the "unknown" over the "well-known."
- Safety is the Metric: Despite all the talk about taxes and housing, safety remains the number one issue. If Mamdani’s new community safety initiatives don't show results by the 2026 midterms, that 50% support will evaporate.
- Independent Lines Matter: Cuomo’s 41% showing as an independent proves that New Yorkers are willing to ditch the traditional party lines if they don't like the nominee.
The best way to stay ahead is to keep an eye on the quarterly Siena and Quinnipiac "Mood of the City" reports. They’ll tell you if Mamdani is keeping the coalition that put him in Gracie Mansion or if the "wrong direction" numbers are starting to catch up with him.
Check the New York City Board of Elections official site for the final precinct-level breakdowns to see exactly how your neighborhood voted. It's often the best indicator of which local issues will get prioritized in the next budget cycle.