You’ve probably stepped outside today in New York and thought, "Wait, is it actually January?" It feels a bit weird. Usually, we’re dodging slush or shivering in a subway draft, but today the air has this unseasonably mild quality that messes with your internal clock.
According to the latest data from the National Weather Service in Upton, we’re currently sitting at 44°F as of Tuesday evening, January 13, 2026. If you look at the ny weather forecast hourly charts, you’ll see we hit a high of 48°F earlier. That is significantly above the historical average for mid-January. Honestly, it feels like a trick. New Yorkers know better than to trust a 40-degree day in the middle of winter.
The atmosphere is basically in a holding pattern right now. We have a southwest flow bringing in that warmer air, but don't get too comfortable. A cold front is currently lumbering toward the East Coast. It's going to change everything by Thursday.
The Breakdown: NYC Hourly Outlook for Tonight and Wednesday
If you're planning your commute or a late-night run to the bodega, here is exactly what the sensors at Central Park and the surrounding metro airports are telling us.
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Right now, it’s cloudy. Humidity is hovering around 48%, which is why the air feels a bit heavy but not exactly "wet" yet. The wind is coming from the south at about 9 mph, though we’ve seen some gusts up to 20 mph throughout the day.
- Tonight (Late Tuesday): We are looking at a low of 33°F to 40°F depending on how far into the boroughs you are. There’s a slight 10% to 20% chance of rain after midnight. It won't be a washout, just a nuisance.
- Wednesday Morning: Expect more clouds. The temperature will climb back up toward 48°F. It’s the last "warm" day of the week.
- Wednesday Night: This is when the transition starts. The chance of rain jumps to 60% after midnight. As that Arctic front hits, the wind is going to shift from a gentle southerly breeze to a sharp western gust.
Why the Forecast Keeps Shifting
You might notice that different apps give you different numbers for the ny weather forecast hourly updates. Why? Because New York City is a microclimate nightmare for meteorologists.
The "Urban Heat Island" effect is real. Manhattan’s concrete jungle holds onto heat much longer than the suburbs in Westchester or the fields of New Jersey. On a night like tonight, Central Park might stay at 44°F while a spot in the Hudson Valley drops to 35°F.
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Also, the proximity to the Atlantic Ocean acts as a giant thermostat. That south wind we’re feeling right now? That’s the ocean keeping us warm. But once that front crosses the Appalachian Mountains, the ocean won't be able to save us from the Arctic air mass trailing behind it.
What’s Really Happening Thursday?
Thursday is the day everyone is talking about in the local weather circles. It’s a "falling temperature" day. This means the high for the day will likely happen at 8:00 AM, and it’ll just get colder every hour after that.
We’re looking at a transition from rain to a light snow mix as the cold air rushes in. The NWS is currently forecasting a 20% chance of precipitation for Thursday morning. Don't expect a blizzard—we're talking about a dusting or maybe an inch in higher elevations like the Tug Hill region upstate, but for the city, it’s mostly just going to be a cold, slushy mess.
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By Thursday night, the wind chill is expected to drop into the single digits. That is a massive swing from the 44°F we are seeing right now.
Survival Steps for the Next 48 Hours
Don't let the mild Tuesday evening fool you into leaving your heavy coat at home tomorrow. Here is the move:
- Wednesday Gear: Layers are your friend. You'll want something water-resistant for the rain that’s likely to start Wednesday evening.
- Thursday Morning: This is the danger zone. The roads will be wet from Wednesday night’s rain, and as the temperature plunges Thursday morning, that water could flash-freeze. Watch your step on the subway stairs.
- Wind Prep: Secure any loose items on balconies or patios. Those western gusts on Thursday could reach 25 mph, which is enough to send a plastic chair flying.
The mild "January Thaw" is ending. By Friday, we’ll be back to a high of only 30°F, reminding us all that winter in New York isn't over just because we had one nice Tuesday.
Keep an eye on the barometric pressure; it's currently at 29.98 in and falling. That’s the classic sign that the stable weather is packing its bags. Enjoy the 40s while they last.
Next Steps:
Check your local transit apps on Wednesday evening, as the rain-to-snow transition often causes signaling delays on the MTA. If you're driving, ensure your tire pressure is topped off, as the sudden 20-degree drop on Thursday will cause your "low pressure" light to pop on.