If you thought the AI hype cycle was going to fizzle out by 2026, Goldman Sachs clearly has other ideas. Honestly, watching Nvidia’s stock over the last few years has been like watching a rocket that refuses to run out of fuel. Just when everyone thinks the valuation is getting a bit too "to the moon," a fresh analyst note drops and reminds us that the plumbing of the global economy is being ripped out and replaced by Nvidia's silicon.
The latest Nvidia price target increase Goldman Sachs analysts pushed out isn't just a minor tweak to a spreadsheet. It’s a massive vote of confidence in what Jensen Huang is building with the new Rubin architecture. We aren't just talking about faster chips anymore; we’re talking about "AI factories" that are becoming the standard for every major tech player on the planet.
Why Goldman Sachs Just Upped the Ante
Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari and his team have been some of the most consistent voices on the Street, and they just moved the goalposts again. They’ve raised their price target for NVDA to $250 (and in some recent modeling, even hinting at a path toward $350 as we look deeper into the year).
Why the sudden jump? Basically, it’s about visibility.
Investors used to worry that Big Tech—the "hyperscalers" like Microsoft, Google, and Meta—would eventually stop buying GPUs once they finished their initial training runs. Goldman’s research suggests the opposite is happening. We are moving from a "build" phase to an "inference" phase. Every time you ask an AI to write an email, generate a video, or debug code, it’s running on a chip. That "usage" requires a staggering amount of compute power that doesn't just go away.
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The Blackwell and Rubin Factor
You can't talk about the Nvidia price target increase Goldman Sachs issued without mentioning the hardware.
- Blackwell: This was the "it" chip of 2025. It’s currently in full-scale deployment, and the demand is still outstripping supply.
- Rubin: Announced at CES 2026, this is the next frontier. It uses HBM4 memory and is designed to slash the cost of running AI models by 10x compared to previous generations.
Goldman’s logic is simple: if Nvidia can make AI 10 times cheaper to run, the number of companies using it will grow 100 times. It’s a classic case of Jevons Paradox—where increasing the efficiency of a resource actually leads to more consumption of that resource, not less.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Valuation
"It’s too expensive." You’ve heard it. I’ve heard it. Your neighbor who just discovered Robinhood has probably said it.
But look at the numbers. Nvidia is on track to pull in roughly $213 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026. That is a 50% jump from the previous year. When a company is growing that fast, a high P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio is actually quite normal. Goldman points out that while the stock price is high, the earnings are catching up so fast that the "forward" valuation—what the stock is worth based on future profits—is actually cheaper than many smaller, slower-growing software companies.
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Current data shows Nvidia’s data center revenue hitting around $51.2 billion in just one quarter. To put that in perspective, that’s more than the annual revenue of many Fortune 500 companies, earned in just 90 days.
The Trump Era and the China Wildcard
There’s a political layer here that Goldman Sachs is also baking into their projections. With the current administration's stance on tech, there was a lot of fear about export bans to China. However, Nvidia has been cleared to sell its H200 chips in the Chinese market, which opens up a massive revenue stream that many analysts had previously written off as "zero."
Goldman notes that this regulatory "thaw" provides a safety net. If US demand ever dips—which doesn't look likely—the demand from Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent is waiting to pick up the slack.
Is There Any Risk Left?
Look, it’s not all sunshine and green candles. Goldman did mention some caution regarding "sovereign" AI and startup volatility. If a bunch of AI startups that are currently burning VC cash suddenly go bust, that could lead to a temporary dip in demand.
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Also, the competition isn't sitting still. AMD is still nipping at their heels with the MI350 series, and companies like Google and Amazon are trying to build their own "in-house" chips to save money. But so far? Nobody has been able to touch Nvidia’s software ecosystem (CUDA). It’s the "moat" that keeps developers locked in.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
If you're looking at this Nvidia price target increase Goldman Sachs has put forward and wondering what to do, here are a few expert-level takeaways:
- Watch the $185 Support Level: The stock has shown a lot of strength around the $180-$185 mark. If it dips there, analysts typically see it as a "buy the dip" opportunity before the next leg up to that $250 target.
- Focus on Data Center Revenue: This is the only metric that truly matters right now. If data center growth stays above 60% year-over-year, the bull case remains intact.
- Don't Ignore the "Old" Chips: Jensen Huang recently noted that as new chips like Rubin come out, the price of older chips (like the H100) drops, making them accessible to smaller businesses. This "secondary market" is a huge growth lever that most people ignore.
The bottom line? Goldman Sachs isn't just guessing. They are looking at a backlog of orders that stretches into 2027. When the smartest guys in the room tell you the price target is going up, it’s usually because they’ve seen the receipts.
Keep a close eye on the Q1 2026 earnings call. If Nvidia beats the $57 billion revenue mark they set in late 2025, that $250 target might actually end up looking conservative.
Immediate Next Step: Review your exposure to the semiconductor sector and check if your portfolio is balanced to handle a potential 20% move in NVDA over the next two quarters. If you're over-leveraged, consider using stop-losses near the 50-day moving average to protect gains while the stock chases Goldman's new target.