If you’ve been keeping an eye on the ticker today, you already know the vibe. NVDA stock closed at $187.14 today, January 16, 2026. That’s a decent little bump—about 2.18% up from where it started.
It's funny how we've all become amateur semiconductor analysts over the last few years. Honestly, a few years ago, most people couldn't tell you the difference between a GPU and a hole in the ground. Now? We're tracking capital expenditure reports from Taiwan like they’re the Sunday night football scores.
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Today's action wasn't just random noise, either. There's a lot moving under the hood.
What Actually Drove the NVDA Stock Close Today?
Most of the "smart money" is pointing a finger at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC). Since they’re basically the ones actually baking the chips that Nvidia designs, their earnings are like a crystal ball. TSMC just knocked their Q4 results out of the park, reporting a massive earnings beat.
They also dropped a bit of a bombshell regarding their 2026 plans.
They’re planning to spend up to $56 billion on capital expenditures this year. Think about that. That is an insane amount of money to spend on factories and equipment. You don't spend that kind of cash unless you know for a fact that your biggest customer—which is Nvidia—has a backlog of orders a mile long.
Basically, the "AI is a bubble" crowd took another hit today. If the world’s biggest chip foundry is doubling down, it's hard to argue that demand is drying up.
The Numbers That Matter Right Now
While the closing price of $187.14 is the headline, the intraday high actually touched $189.70. It flirted with that $190 mark before settling back down.
Here’s a quick look at how the day shook out:
- Open: $186.50
- Day’s Low: $186.33
- Market Cap: Holding steady around $4.59 trillion
- 52-Week Range: $86.62 – $212.19
You’ve got to admire the resilience. Even with Chinese customs reportedly being "kinda" difficult about H200 chip shipments lately, the market seems to be looking past it. The focus is squarely on the upcoming Rubin platform and the massive rollout of Blackwell cloud instances on Microsoft Azure and AWS.
Is the Current Valuation Actually "Cheap"?
This is where things get controversial.
Some analysts, like Chris Caso over at Wolfe Research, have actually been calling Nvidia a "laggard" lately. It sounds crazy, right? The stock is up over 1,000% in three years, but compared to some other AI-adjacent names, it's been a bit of a slow mover in the last few months.
Caso put NVDA on his firm’s "alpha list" earlier this week. His logic is pretty straightforward: the stock is trading at about 23 times estimated 2026 earnings. When you compare that to its five-year average of 35 times, it actually looks... affordable?
Sorta.
It’s all about the "Rubin" superchip coming in the second half of this year. If the specs are true—specifically that it can handle AI inference workloads 5x faster than Blackwell—then Nvidia’s competitive moat isn't just a ditch; it's an ocean.
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Why Some People Are Still Nervous
Not everyone is ready to go all-in at these levels. There are real concerns.
- Export Controls: The back-and-forth with the Trump administration and Beijing over GPU exports is a headache.
- Custom Chips: Big tech companies like Google (with their TPUs) and Amazon are trying to build their own silicon to avoid paying the "Nvidia tax."
- Sustainability: Can companies keep spending $500 billion on data centers every year?
Moody’s Ratings seems to think so. They recently estimated that $3 trillion will be dumped into data center infrastructure over the next five years. If that’s even half right, Nvidia stays the king.
Looking Ahead to February 25
If you're holding NVDA, circle February 25 on your calendar. That’s when the actual Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report drops.
Management has already guided for revenue around $65 billion for the quarter. If they beat that—and let’s be real, they usually do—we might see that 52-week high of $212.19 get challenged again pretty quickly.
For now, today’s close at $187.14 serves as a reminder that the AI train hasn't left the station yet; it's just refueling.
Your Next Moves
If you're looking to play this, keep an eye on the $181.46 support level. Options traders are pricing in a volatility swing of about ±$4.33 for the immediate future. If you're a long-term investor, the focus shouldn't be on the daily price but on the "Vera Rubin" launch window.
Monitor the 10-K filings coming out next month for any updates on the China export situation, as that remains the biggest wildcard for the first half of 2026.