People usually think of the Midlands derby as a standard mid-table scrap, but honestly, that’s just lazy. When you look at the recent clash on January 3, 2026, it was anything but routine. Aston Villa walked away with a 3-1 victory at Villa Park, but the scoreline hides a much more chaotic story than the pundits like to admit.
It was freezing. The kind of Birmingham cold that makes the ball feel like a brick.
For the first 44 minutes, Sean Dyche’s Forest side—yes, Dyche is firmly in the hotseat there now—looked like they’d parked a literal bus. They were stubborn. Frustrating. Villa had 72% possession but were doing absolutely nothing with it. Then, Ollie Watkins happened.
The Nottm Forest vs Aston Villa Dynamic Has Shifted
Villa are legitimately chasing a title in 2026. Under Unai Emery, they’ve transformed from a "big club" in name only to a tactical machine that actually scares the big six. The win over Forest moved them into second place, trailing only Arsenal. That’s a massive shift from where these two teams stood just a few years ago when they were both grinding it out in the Championship.
The tactical battle between Emery and Dyche is basically a clash of ideologies. Emery wants control; Dyche wants to make your life miserable. In that January match, Dyche almost pulled it off.
John Victor, the Forest keeper, was having the game of his life until he wasn't. Football is cruel like that.
Why John McGinn is the Heartbeat
You’ve got to love McGinn. He isn't the flashiest player on the pitch, but he’s the one who shows up when the weather is rubbish and the stakes are high. He bagged a brace—his first-ever in the Premier League.
The first was a tidy finish from a Matty Cash cross. The second? Total madness. John Victor rushed off his line like he’d left the stove on, and McGinn just strolled past him to slot it into an empty net.
- Ollie Watkins (45+1')
- John McGinn (49', 73')
- Morgan Gibbs-White (61')
Gibbs-White’s goal for Forest was actually a beauty, a composed finish after some decent work from Dilane Bakwa. For about ten minutes, it felt like Forest might actually steal a point. They didn't.
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Historic Weights and Modern Realities
Historically, this fixture is massive. We’re talking about two European Cup winners. Not many "derbies" can claim that. But the head-to-head record is heavily skewed toward the Villans. They’ve got 64 wins to Forest’s 40.
Most people forget that Forest haven't won at Villa Park since 1994. Think about that. Bill Clinton was in the White House. "The Lion King" was just hitting theaters. It’s been a long, long road for the Tricky Trees when they travel to B6.
Even that legendary 5-5 draw back in 2018—the game where Tammy Abraham scored four goals—showed that when these two meet, logic usually goes out the window.
What This Means for the 2026 Table
Right now, Villa are sitting on 43 points from 21 games. They are level with Manchester City. Let that sink in for a second. Forest, on the other hand, are sitting in 17th with 21 points. They are surviving, but only just.
The difference in quality is basically down to the bench. Look at Villa's substitutes: Jadon Sancho and Donyell Malen. When you can bring that kind of heat off the bench in the 69th minute, you’re playing a different game.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you’re looking at the return fixture at the City Ground on April 11, 2026, keep these things in mind:
- Watch the Goalkeeper Positioning: John Victor’s tendency to sweep high is a massive risk against Villa’s long-ball accuracy.
- The Gibbs-White Factor: He is Forest's only real creative outlet. If Villa shuts him down, Forest becomes one-dimensional.
- Home vs Away Form: Villa is a juggernaut at home, but Forest at the City Ground is a different beast under the lights.
The gap in the table is wide, but the gap on the pitch is often narrowed by the sheer intensity of this rivalry. It’s not just a game; it’s a Midlands power struggle.
To stay ahead of the next meeting, monitor the fitness of Morgan Rogers, who picked up a slight thigh knock in the recent clash. His ability to progress the ball from midfield is exactly what opened up the Forest defense in the first place. You’ll also want to track the integration of Douglas Luiz back into the Forest lineup, as his familiarity with Villa’s system could be the tactical edge Dyche needs for the rematch.