Northrop Grumman is having a moment. If you've looked at the ticker today, January 16, 2026, you'll see a lot of green, but the numbers only tell half the story. Honestly, the defense sector has been a wild ride lately. Between geopolitical shifts and massive tech breakthroughs, Northrop Grumman (NOC) is sitting right at the center of a very expensive, very high-stakes map.
The stock is currently hovering around the $653 mark. That’s a decent jump from where it started the year. Just a few weeks ago, back on January 5, we saw a massive surge across the board for defense equities. Why? Basically, because the "Donroe Doctrine" and U.S. movements in South America sent investors into a buying frenzy. Everyone wanted a piece of the "Arsenal of the Americas," and Northrop was a primary target.
What is Driving Northrop Grumman Stock News Today?
The big news hitting the wires right now isn't just about the price—it's about the options. There is a specific $640 call option expiring today that has seen some serious volume. When you see traders piling into options like that, it means they’re expecting a move. Or, at the very least, they’re hedging against something big.
Analysts are currently leaning toward a "Hold" or "Buy" consensus, but it’s a split camp. Zacks currently has them at a Rank #3 (Hold), while other firms like UBS have set price targets as high as $770. That’s a huge gap. It kinda shows that nobody is quite sure how fast the company can scale its newest toys.
The B-21 Raider and the 2026 Ramp-Up
If you want to understand why people are obsessed with this stock, you have to look at the B-21 Raider. This isn't just a plane. It’s a flying computer that happens to carry nukes.
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The U.S. Air Force confirmed that they are getting their first operational Raiders this year. 2026 is the "scale-up" year at the Palmdale plant. We're talking about a $10.3 billion budget for this program alone in fiscal year 2026. Out of that, about $4.5 billion is specifically for cranking up production.
- Production Status: Low-rate initial production (LRIP) is in full swing.
- The Digital Twin: Northrop used "digital engineering" to build this thing. This means they fixed the bugs in a simulation before they even touched a piece of metal.
- The Goal: The Air Force wants at least 100 of these, but there’s talk of 145 or even 200.
Investors love the B-21 because it's a "franchise" program. It provides decades of guaranteed revenue. However, there’s a catch. Last year, Northrop took a $477 million charge related to production costs. It turns out, building the future is expensive, even when you do it digitally.
Contracts, Drones, and Hypersonic Defense
It’s not all about the big bombers, though. Just last week, on January 8, Northrop and Kratos landed a $231.5 million deal for the Marine Corps. They’re building "loyal wingman" drones. These are the MUX TACAIR drones that fly alongside manned jets.
Then there’s the Navy contract from January 7. Northrop got $94.3 million to work on rocket motors meant to stop hypersonic missiles. If you’ve been following the news, you know everyone is scared of hypersonics right now. Being the guy who builds the shield is a very good business to be in.
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The company also just had a successful first flight of its redesigned ICBM target vehicle on January 8. This helps the Pentagon test the "Golden Dome" missile defense shield. Every time one of these tests goes well, the stock gets a little more "de-risked" in the eyes of Wall Street.
Earnings: What to Expect on January 27
We are less than two weeks away from the Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings report. Mark your calendars for Tuesday, January 27, 2026, before the market opens.
The whisper number is looking for an EPS of roughly $6.99. For context, they smashed the last quarter with a $7.67 EPS, which was an 18% surprise to the upside. If they beat again, we could see the stock test those all-time highs near $670 or $700.
- Revenue Forecast: Analysts are looking for about $10.08 billion for the quarter.
- Cash Flow: This is the metric to watch. Last time, free cash flow was a bit of a disappointment ($637 million vs the $1.13 billion expected).
- New CFO: John Greene just took over as CFO on January 7. This will be his first big show.
Dividends and the "Long Game"
For the income-seeking crowd, Northrop remains a bit of a "Dividend Aristocrat" in the making. They’ve raised dividends for 22 years straight. The current quarterly payout is $2.31 per share.
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The next ex-dividend date is coming up on March 3, 2026. If you want that check in March, you’ve got to be on the books by then. The yield is about 1.41%, which isn't going to make you rich overnight, but it’s remarkably safe. They have an A+ dividend safety rating for a reason.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're holding NOC or thinking about jumping in, here is the ground truth. The stock is sensitive to two things right now: the B-21 production schedule and the January 27 earnings call.
Watch the operating margins. Northrop has guided for low-to-mid 11% margins for 2026. If they can show they're controlling costs in Palmdale, the stock has plenty of room to run. But if they announce another "charge" or "cost adjustment," expect a dip.
Also, keep an eye on the Marine Corps drone program. The "loyal wingman" concept is the future of air warfare. If Northrop can prove their autonomy software—called "Prism"—works better than the competition, they could own that entire market segment.
Before the earnings date, check the implied volatility on the February options. It’ll tell you if the "smart money" is bracing for a beat or a miss. Right now, the market is pricing in a lot of optimism, so the bar for a "beat" is actually quite high.
To get ready for the upcoming earnings, you should review the company’s 2025 Third Quarter results to see where the revenue gaps were, particularly in the Space Systems segment, which saw a 12% decline last year. Comparing those old numbers to the January 27 release will be the quickest way to see if the company has actually turned the corner on its lagging divisions.