North Texas weather forecast: What Most People Get Wrong About This Winter

North Texas weather forecast: What Most People Get Wrong About This Winter

If you’ve lived in the DFW Metroplex for more than a week, you know the drill. You wake up in a parka and by lunch you’re looking for a short-sleeve shirt and a shaded patio. Honestly, the north texas weather forecast right now is a perfect example of why we can’t have nice, consistent things.

We are currently staring down a weekend that is basically a giant reset button on the spring-like warmth we just had.

The cold front reality check

So, here is the deal. A massive cold front just finished its sweep across the region. We went from those weirdly comfortable 70-degree afternoons earlier in the week to a Saturday where the high is struggling to hit 46°F.

It’s a shock to the system.

The wind is the real story today, though. We’re looking at sustained northeast winds around 17 mph, and if you’re out near the lakes or in open areas like Frisco or Denton, those gusts are going to make it feel significantly colder than the thermometer says. It’s that biting, "dry" cold that North Texas specializes in during January.

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Is it actually going to snow?

Everyone sees a drop in temperature and immediately starts panic-buying milk and bread at H-E-B. Kinda funny, but also understandable given our history.

The official data for today, Saturday, January 17, 2026, shows a very slim 5% chance of precipitation. While the Texas Panhandle might see some actual flakes, for the Metroplex, we are looking at a "partly sunny" day that stays mostly dry. The humidity is sitting at a crisp 24%, so there’s just not enough moisture in the air to give us the winter wonderland some people are hoping for (or fearing).

Tonight is when things get serious for the gardeners.

We are forecasting a low of 24°F under clear skies. That is a hard freeze. If you haven't covered those sensitive plants or disconnected your hoses, you've got a very short window left to do it.

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Why this January feels so weird

You might have noticed that the first half of this month was basically a fever dream. Some parts of North Texas were running 12 to 15 degrees above normal for the first two weeks of 2026. According to the Climate Prediction Center, we’ve been dealing with a La Niña pattern that usually favors these warmer, drier stretches.

But La Niña is a fickle beast.

It doesn't mean it won't get cold; it just means the cold comes in these sharp, violent bursts rather than a long, sustained season. Meteorologists like Michael Autovino have been tracking this "temperature rollercoaster" for days. We are on the downward slope of that track right now.

Looking ahead: The bounce back

The good news? This isn't an "Arctic Apocalypse."

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By Monday, we start the upswing again. Highs will creep back into the 50s and then likely the 60s as we head toward the middle of next week. We are also watching a potential system for next Wednesday or Thursday that might actually bring some much-needed rain to the parched North Texas soil.

Basically, enjoy the "crisp" Saturday while it lasts.

Actionable steps for the next 24 hours:

  • Protect the pipes: With a low of 24°F tonight, make sure your outdoor faucets are covered.
  • Check the tires: Rapid temperature drops like this cause tire pressure to plummet. If your "low air" light came on this morning, it’s not a glitch; it’s just physics.
  • Layer up: The wind chill today is the real hazard, not the actual temp. A windbreaker over a hoodie is your best friend today.