Honestly, if you're standing on the sand at Waimea right now, the ocean looks like a moving mountain range. It’s heavy. Today, Friday, January 16, 2026, the North Shore of Oahu is coming off the back of a massive peak, and the north shore wave height today is holding in that "dangerously fun" to "just plain dangerous" territory. We are seeing faces in the 18 to 30-foot range (Hawaiian scale 12 to 18 feet) as a powerhouse NNW swell slowly begins to taper off.
The National Weather Service (NWS) still has a High Surf Warning in effect until 6:00 PM tonight. Don't let the "subsiding" part of the forecast fool you. A "dropping" swell of this magnitude still carries enough raw energy to sweep the Kam Highway if a rogue set decides to show up.
Understanding the North Shore Wave Height Today
The numbers can be confusing because Hawaii uses its own math. While a mainland report might call a wave 25 feet, a local will look at that same wave and call it 15 feet. Why? Because they measure from the back, and honestly, they're just tougher than the rest of us.
Right now, the primary energy is coming from a NNW swell at 15 seconds. That 15-second period is the secret sauce. It means the waves have traveled thousands of miles across the Pacific, grooming themselves into long, organized lines of pure power. Longer periods usually mean more water moving—and more water moving means much stronger rip currents.
- Waimea Bay: Expect sets to occasionally close out the bay or at least wash through the lineup. It’s massive.
- Pipeline/Backdoor: This is for the pros only today. The swell direction (320-340 degrees) is hitting the reef hard, making for heavy, hollow barrels that are as beautiful as they are life-threatening.
- Sunset Beach: With the NNW angle, Sunset is a playing field of shifting peaks. It's "shifty" as the locals say, meaning you could be in the perfect spot one second and under a three-wave set the next.
Winds and Water Conditions
The winds are actually being somewhat kind today. We've got NE trades blowing around 10 to 20 mph. This provides that classic offshore "spray" off the back of the waves, keeping the faces clean and glassy. It’s a stark contrast to the "slop chop" we sometimes see when the winds turn onshore.
However, the air is a bit cooler than usual. We’re looking at a high of around 72°F. If you’re planning on sitting on the beach to watch the show, maybe grab a hoodie. The salt spray in the air (the "North Shore mist") will chill you faster than you think.
Is It Safe to Swim?
Short answer: No.
Long answer: Absolutely not.
When a High Surf Warning is active, the shoreline becomes a treadmill of moving sand and white water. The "shorebreak" at places like Waimea or Ehukai can snap a surfboard—or a bone—in half. Even if you aren't in the water, stay off the wet sand. A "sneaker wave" can and will reach further up the beach than the last ten waves did.
Lifeguards are on high alert. If you see them moving the yellow tape or putting up new signs, listen to them. They aren't trying to ruin your vacation; they're trying to make sure you have a tomorrow.
What to Do Instead of Surfing
If you aren't an expert, today is a "spectator day." It’s one of those rare opportunities to see the raw power of the Pacific from the safety of the grass.
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- Turtle Bay: Sometimes the protected coves here offer a bit more shelter, but even then, the surge will be noticeable.
- Haleiwa Town: Grab a shave ice from Matsumoto’s and walk the shops. The vibe in town when the swell is up is electric.
- Laniakea: Good for watching turtles, but keep your distance. The waves will be pushing way up into the rocks.
The Forecast for the Weekend
The swell is predicted to drop significantly by Saturday morning, likely falling into the 8 to 14-foot face range (5-8 Hawaiian). That's still big by most standards, but it’ll feel like a pond compared to what’s happening right now. By Sunday, a new NW swell is expected to start building again, potentially hitting the 10 to 18-foot face range by midday.
Basically, the North Shore is in its peak winter rhythm. One swell leaves, another arrives.
Before you head out, always check the latest updates from the NWS Honolulu and the Surf News Network. Conditions on the North Shore change faster than a tourist loses their flip-flops in the shorebreak. If the water looks "scary but doable," it’s probably just scary.
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Stay on the dry sand, respect the power of the ocean, and enjoy the show. There is nothing on earth quite like a January day on the Seven Mile Miracle when the swell is truly pumping.
Check the live cams at Waimea or Pipeline before you make the drive up from Waikiki to ensure the roads are clear and the view is worth the traffic. Bring binoculars; the best action is often further out than it looks from the shore.