It’s January 2026, and if you feel like you’ve seen this movie before, you’re not alone. The headlines are basically a time machine. We’ve got Donald Trump back in the White House talking about how he’d “love to meet” Kim Jong Un, calling him "sort of a nuclear power," and hinting at more summits. Meanwhile, Pyongyang is busy launching hypersonic missiles and pretending the U.S. doesn't exist.
Honestly, it’s easy to look at the tweets—or whatever we’re calling them now—and think we’re headed for a 2018 redux. But the ground has shifted. Hard.
If you’re waiting for a "Grand Bargain" or another historic handshake at the DMZ, you might be waiting a long time. The relationship between North Korea and the US isn't just stuck; it’s evolved into something much colder and more dangerous than the "fire and fury" days.
The "Hanoi Hangover" is Still Very Real
You've probably heard experts talk about the failed 2019 Hanoi summit like it was just a bad date. For Kim Jong Un, it was more like a public trauma. He took a slow train across China, expecting to trade a piece of his nuclear program for sanctions relief, and he got sent home with nothing.
He hasn't forgotten that. Since then, his "love letters" to Trump have been replaced by a "hostile two states" policy. In late 2025, while Trump was touring Asia and floating the idea of a new meeting, Kim didn't even bother to respond. Instead, he spent his time inspecting a massive 8,700-ton "nuclear-powered" submarine and telling his people to focus on "domestic patriotism."
Basically, North Korea is done asking for a seat at the table. They’re building their own table now, and it’s reinforced with solid-fuel ICBMs.
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What’s Actually Happening on the Ground in 2026?
To understand why the North Korea and the US dynamic is so weird right now, you have to look at the math. In 2025, North Korea actually launched fewer missiles than they did in the crazy years of 2022-2024. Does that mean they’re playing nice?
Nope.
They’re just getting more efficient. Instead of firing dozens of old rockets, they’re testing things like the Hwasong-16B—a solid-fueled beast with a hypersonic glide vehicle. On January 4, 2026, they fired one of these from Pyongyang, hitting a target 900 km away.
The timing wasn't a coincidence. It happened just hours after U.S. Special Forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas. Pyongyang’s message was loud and clear: "We aren't Venezuela. We have nukes. Don't even think about it."
The Russia Factor: The Game Changer
This is the part most people ignore. North Korea doesn't need the U.S. like it used to.
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- The Ukraine War Connection: Pyongyang has been shipping ballistic missiles and millions of shells to Russia. In return? They’re getting food, oil, and—most importantly—space and missile tech.
- The Sanctions Loophole: Russia literally vetoed the UN panel that monitors sanctions. It’s like firing the security guard at a mall and then wondering why the stores are being looted.
- A New Alliance: Kim and Putin signed a mutual defense treaty. If the U.S. hits North Korea, Russia is technically obligated to step in. That changes the risk assessment for Washington entirely.
The Trump Strategy: "Sort of a Nuclear Power"
Trump’s current approach to North Korea and the US is, well, very Trump. During his October 2025 Asia trip, he used the phrase "sort of a nuclear power." That’s a massive deal. Usually, U.S. presidents insist on "Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Denuclearization" (CVID).
By calling them a nuclear power, Trump is basically acknowledging reality. It signals that he might be willing to settle for a "freeze"—letting Kim keep his current nukes if he promises not to build more or sell them to Iran.
But here’s the kicker: Kim might not even want that anymore. Why freeze your program when you’re already getting everything you need from Moscow and Beijing?
Common Misconceptions (Let's Clear These Up)
"North Korea is just trying to get attention."
Maybe in 2010. In 2026, they’re trying to build a survivable nuclear triad. They want to be able to hit the U.S. from land and sea so that no one ever tries a "regime change" on them.
"Sanctions will eventually break them."
Sanctions are hurting, sure. But North Korean IT workers are currently stealing billions in cryptocurrency—about $2 billion in 2025 alone, according to the State Department. They’ve become world-class hackers. They’re funding their nukes with Bitcoin, not just coal exports.
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"China will help the US stop Kim."
China isn't happy about Kim's "bromance" with Putin, but they’re more afraid of a North Korean collapse that brings U.S. troops to their border. Xi Jinping has promised to consolidate ties "no matter how the international landscape may evolve."
Why This Matters to You
If you're living in the U.S., this isn't just some far-off drama. The Hwasong-19 ICBM, which North Korea tested in late 2024, can technically reach any city in North America.
We’re moving toward a world where we simply have to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea. The dream of a "denuclearized" peninsula is basically dead, even if diplomats are too scared to say it out loud.
What’s Next? (The Reality Check)
Keep an eye on the Ninth Party Congress in Pyongyang, likely happening in February 2026. This is where Kim will lay out his five-year plan. If he doubles down on "military modernization," expect more tension.
Also, watch for a potential Trump-Kim summit around April 2026, possibly near Trump's planned visit to Beijing. If it happens, don't expect a "peace in our time" moment. It’ll likely be a messy negotiation about lifting specific sanctions in exchange for a partial testing halt.
Actionable Insights for the Curious:
- Follow the Tech, Not the Tweets: Don't get distracted by the name-calling. Watch the "solid-fuel" developments. Solid-fuel missiles can be launched in minutes, making them way harder for the U.S. to intercept than the old liquid-fuel ones.
- Monitor the "Axis of Three": The relationship between Pyongyang, Moscow, and Beijing is the new "quad." If they stay tight, the U.S. has almost zero leverage.
- Watch the Cyber Front: The next big conflict between North Korea and the US probably won't be a missile; it'll be a massive hack on a financial system or a power grid.
The "Love Story" might be over, but the relationship is just getting started. It's just a lot more complicated than it looks on a teleprompter.
Check the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT) updates for the latest on North Korean cyber-theft tactics if you're in the tech or finance sector.