The rumors started as whispers in late 2024, but by early 2026, the reality is staring the world in the face. Honestly, the bond between North Korea and Russia has moved way past simple "photo op" diplomacy. It’s a full-blown, boots-on-the-ground marriage of necessity.
You’ve probably seen the headlines about North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region. But do you know the specifics? In September 2025, Vladimir Putin stood next to Kim Jong Un in Beijing and publicly thanked him. He wasn't just being polite. He was acknowledging the thousands of North Korean special forces who helped Russia push back Ukrainian incursions.
The "Permanent" Pact
On January 9, 2026, Kim Jong Un sent a letter to Putin that basically said their friendship is "permanent and unconditional." That’s a heavy word in geopolitics. Permanent.
This isn't just about two leaders liking each other's style. It’s rooted in the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which officially kicked in on December 4, 2024. This thing is the strongest deal they've had since the Cold War. Article 4 is the kicker: it says if one gets invaded, the other has to provide military help "with all means in its possession without delay."
Soldiers, Shells, and Shovels
The scale of this is kinda nuts. According to General Valery Gerasimov, who finally broke Russia's silence in April 2025, North Korean troops have displayed "heroism" in battle. We're talking about four brigades—roughly 12,000 soldiers.
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And it’s not just combat.
- Ammunition: Millions of 152mm artillery shells.
- Hardware: 170mm howitzers and KN-23 ballistic missiles.
- Labor: 5,000 military builders and 1,000 combat engineers sent to rebuild the Kursk region.
There's even a memorial being built in Kursk right now to celebrate this "combat brotherhood."
What is North Korea getting out of this?
Kim isn't doing this for free. He’s smart. While the West worries about troops, Kim is looking at the stars—and what’s underneath the ocean.
In late December 2025, Kim was spotted inspecting a massive 8,700-tonne nuclear-powered submarine. Experts like Dr. Edward Howell from Chatham House note that while North Korea does the heavy lifting in production, they need Russia's "brain power." We're talking about satellite tech, re-entry physics for ICBMs, and nuclear sub designs.
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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently warned that Moscow is likely sharing advanced space technology that could make North Korea's missiles much harder to stop. Basically, Russia is helping North Korea fill the technological gaps that years of sanctions were supposed to keep open.
The China Factor
It’s not a simple two-way street. China is watching this like a hawk. For a while, Beijing was acting "lukewarm" because they didn't like how close Kim and Putin were getting. It felt a bit like a rowdy younger brother hanging out with a bad influence.
But things shifted in September 2025. Kim showed up for China's Victory Day parade. He stood with Xi Jinping and Putin, signaling a "trilateral alignment." They aren't a formal "Triple Alliance" yet, but they’re definitely checking the moves of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan.
Why the world is on edge in 2026
The 9th Party Congress is coming up in Pyongyang this February. Kim is expected to double down on his "hostile two states" policy toward South Korea. With Russia at his back, he feels emboldened.
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South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and U.S. President Donald Trump have expressed interest in talking, but Kim's price has gone up. He’s no longer just looking for a seat at the table; he wants recognition as a permanent nuclear power.
Actionable Insights for the Path Ahead
Understanding the North Korea and Russia dynamic requires looking at the "second-order effects." It’s no longer just a regional issue.
- Monitor Technology Transfers: Watch for North Korean satellite launches in the first half of 2026. Success here is the "smoking gun" for Russian technical assistance.
- Watch the Labor Exports: Russia's labor shortage is severe. The influx of North Korean workers into Russian military factories is a key indicator of how long Russia can sustain its industrial output.
- Regional Defense Shifts: If you're tracking markets or security, keep an eye on South Korea's "phased support" for Ukraine. If North Korea sends more special forces, Seoul might finally start sending lethal weapons to Kyiv, which changes the whole math of the war.
- Energy and Food Flows: Russia is now a primary provider of oil and grain to the North. This effectively neuters the UN sanctions regime, making North Korea more resilient to economic pressure than at any point in the last decade.
The alliance is real, it’s funded, and it’s fighting. The "hidden chapter" is over—now we're just reading the main text.