North Carolina has always been a bit of a political enigma. It's a place where you can find a Prius with a "Save the Whales" sticker parked right next to a lifted Ford F-150 sporting a "Come and Take It" flag. Honestly, the North Carolina 2024 election was the ultimate expression of that split personality.
If you just looked at the top of the ticket, you’d think the state had gone full MAGA red. Donald Trump didn't just win; he cleared the field by over 180,000 votes, taking 51% of the total. But then you look at the Governor’s race, and things get weird. Josh Stein, a Democrat, absolutely crushed his opponent, Mark Robinson, winning by nearly 15 points.
How does that even happen? How do millions of people walk into a booth, pick Trump for President, and then immediately pivot to a Democrat for Governor?
Basically, North Carolina voters are the kings and queens of the "split ticket."
The Trump Factor and the Rural Surge
Trump has now won North Carolina three times in a row. He’s the first person to do that in the modern era. While the national media was obsessing over "Blue Walls" in the Rust Belt, Trump was quietly fortifying his base in places like Randolph, Johnston, and Union counties.
The math for the GOP was simple but effective. They didn't need to win Charlotte or Raleigh—they just needed to make sure those cities didn't outvote the rest of the state. And they didn't. In fact, urban turnout in 2024 actually dropped from 33% of the electorate in 2020 down to just 27%.
Meanwhile, the "rural surge" was real. In Bladen County, for example, Trump gained 3 points compared to 2020. This wasn't just about Republicans showing up; it was about Unaffiliated voters leaning right. About 50% of North Carolina’s massive block of independent voters went for Trump, leaving Kamala Harris with just 48% of that crucial group.
People were feeling the pinch at the grocery store. It sounds like a cliché, but as Republican strategist Chris Woodhouse famously put it, women in America were buying groceries more often than they were thinking about social policy. For many in the Tar Heel state, the 2024 election was a referendum on the price of eggs and gas.
💡 You might also like: Passive Resistance Explained: Why It Is Way More Than Just Standing Still
Why Josh Stein Won Big (and Robinson Didn't)
While Trump was riding a wave of economic frustration, the Republican candidate for Governor, Mark Robinson, was sinking under the weight of his own rhetoric.
There's no polite way to put it: Robinson's campaign was a train wreck.
After reports surfaced about disturbing comments he’d allegedly made on a pornographic forum years ago—including calling himself a "Black Nazi"—the wheels came off. His staff resigned en masse. Even Trump, who had previously called Robinson "Martin Luther King on steroids," suddenly found himself too busy to mention him at rallies.
The Stein Strategy
Josh Stein didn't just sit back and watch the fire. He raised a mountain of cash—so much that he was able to cut checks to other Democratic candidates down-ballot. Stein ran on a platform that felt safe to moderate North Carolinians:
- Protecting reproductive rights (specifically IVF and preventing a 6-week ban).
- Funding public schools.
- Addressing housing affordability.
He ended up with 54.9% of the vote. That means hundreds of thousands of Trump voters looked at the Governor's race and decided Stein was the "adult in the room." It was a classic case of North Carolina choosing "competence over chaos," a phrase Stein used repeatedly on the trail.
The Registration Shift Nobody Noticed
Here is a detail that kinda flew under the radar until recently: for the first time in modern history, there are now more registered Republicans in North Carolina than Democrats.
As of January 2026, the GOP holds a narrow lead of about 2,000 voters. To give you some perspective, back in 2016, Democrats had an advantage of over 645,000 people. That is a massive demographic shift. It’s not just that people are moving here from New York and Florida; it’s that long-time rural Democrats are finally changing their registration to match how they’ve been voting for years.
📖 Related: What Really Happened With the Women's Orchestra of Auschwitz
Down-Ballot Drama: Breaking the Supermajority
The biggest "win" for Democrats wasn't actually at the top. It was in the General Assembly.
Since 2022, Republicans had a "veto-proof supermajority." Basically, they could pass whatever they wanted, and Governor Roy Cooper couldn't stop them because they had enough votes to override his veto.
In 2024, that changed.
Democrats managed to flip just enough seats—specifically in the House—to break that supermajority.
- Republicans kept control of the Senate with 31 seats.
- Republicans lost their 3/5ths edge in the House by a single seat.
- This means Governor Stein will actually have some leverage.
Because of this one-seat shift, the GOP will now have to actually talk to Democrats if they want to pass major legislation or override a veto. It forces a level of bipartisanship that hasn't existed in Raleigh for a couple of years.
The Hurricane Helene Effect
We can't talk about the North Carolina 2024 election without mentioning Hurricane Helene. The storm devastated Western North Carolina (WNC) just weeks before the polls opened.
There were fears that the destruction would crater turnout in Republican-heavy mountains. But the opposite happened. Mountain voters were incredibly resilient. In Buncombe County—a blue dot in a red sea—turnout remained high. In deep-red Haywood County, Trump won every single precinct.
👉 See also: How Much Did Trump Add to the National Debt Explained (Simply)
The state Board of Elections did a decent job of setting up "super sites" and allowing people in disaster zones to vote, and the voters responded by showing up in droves despite the mud and the debris.
Actionable Insights for the Next Cycle
If you're trying to make sense of where North Carolina goes from here, keep these points in mind.
Watch the Unaffiliateds
They are now the largest group of voters in the state. They don't care about party loyalty; they care about results. If you want to win NC, you have to win the middle, which Harris failed to do.
The Urban/Rural Gap is Widening
The "Two North Carolinas" are real. Democrats are increasingly a party of the "Research Triangle" and Charlotte, while Republicans have a lock on the other 80+ counties. If Democrats can't figure out how to talk to rural voters about the economy, they will continue to lose the state at the presidential level.
Candidate Quality Matters
The 2024 Governor’s race proved that North Carolinians will reject "extremism" even if they like the guy at the top of the ticket. A bad candidate can still lose a "safe" seat in this state.
Prepare for the 2026 Midterms
With the registration gap closed and the supermajority broken, the 2026 midterms are going to be a street fight for control of the state legislature.
To stay engaged with the shifting landscape, you should verify your voter registration status now through the North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE) portal, as many districts were redrawn leading up to the last cycle. If you're interested in the granular data, download the official "Voter History" files from the NCSBE website to see how your specific precinct performed compared to the 2020 benchmarks.