Honestly, if you’re looking at the nj weather 30 days outlook and expecting a simple answer, you’re probably going to be disappointed. New Jersey in late January is basically a meteorological mood ring. One minute you're seeing a high of 40°F and thinking the worst of winter is over, and the next, the National Weather Service is dropping advisories for four inches of snow in Morristown. It’s messy.
Right now, we are staring down a very specific, stubborn pattern. If you’ve stepped outside today, January 16, you already know the vibe: it's 30°F, but with the 8 mph south wind, it feels more like 21°F. Mostly cloudy skies are the default setting. But the real story is what happens over the next few weeks as we transition from this weak La Niña into something else entirely.
The weekend snow trap
Everyone is obsessing over the "pair of systems" hitting us this weekend. It’s classic Jersey. We have two chances for snow, but neither is a "blockbuster." Saturday, January 17, is the main event for most of us. We're looking at a high of 40°F, which sounds warm, but don't let it fool you. Rain and snow are likely to mix, especially in North Jersey where Sussex and Warren counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory starting at 1 a.m.
If you’re in Sussex, you might see a few inches. If you’re in Newark or Jersey City? You’ll probably just get a "thin coating" that turns the Turnpike into a skating rink. It's that annoying kind of weather where it's just cold enough to be dangerous but not snowy enough to build a snowman.
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Why the 30-day outlook is shifting
The "dead of winter" has officially arrived. Chief Meteorologist Dan Zarrow has been pretty vocal about this "big cooldown." We’re basically stuck on the cold side of the fence for the foreseeable future.
Looking at the nj weather 30 days trajectory, the models are favoring consistent cold through the end of January and well into February. We aren't just talking about "chilly." We are talking about days like Tuesday, January 20, where the high is 20°F and the low is 15°F. That’s the kind of cold that makes your car struggle to start and your heating bill skyrocket.
Beyond the first ten days
Most people look at the 10-day and stop. Big mistake. The long-range trends for the "Atlantic Corridor" (that's us) suggest that while January might end on a sunny but colder note, February is looking "rainy and warm" in comparison.
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- Jan 21-24: Mostly sunny but brutal. Expect highs in the low 30s.
- Jan 25-26: A brief "milder" blip. We might see some rain as temperatures creep back toward the 40s.
- Late January: Sunny and colder again. The "bitter" stuff returns.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is actually calling for January temperatures to be about 2° below average overall. If you’re waiting for a spring-like thaw, you’re going to be waiting a while. Honestly, the only thing "mild" about this forecast is the occasional 40-degree day that immediately gets slapped down by a northwest wind.
The La Niña factor
There’s a 61% chance we transition to "ENSO-neutral" between now and March. What does that mean for your weekend plans in Jersey? It means predictability goes out the window. Weak La Niña years are notorious for these "nickel and dime" snow events—small storms that happen every few days rather than one giant blizzard.
Meteorologists like Drew Montreuil are pointing out that even reaching 25 degrees again in late January might be a stretch for some parts of the region. This isn't just a "cold snap." It’s an established pattern.
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Practical survival for the next month
If you're living through this nj weather 30 days stretch, you need to stop trusting the "high" temperature on your phone. If it says 34°F but the wind is coming from the West at 12 mph, you’re feeling 20°F.
Check your tire pressure now. These 20-degree swings between day and night (like we’ll see on Monday, Jan 19, going from 35°F down to 17°F) will trigger that annoying "low pressure" light on your dashboard.
Also, keep the salt bucket by the door. With the humidity hovering around 52-65% and these frequent "light snow" chances, we’re going to see a lot of black ice on those Monday morning commutes. Stay safe out there, Jersey. It’s going to be a long, gray climb to March.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Audit your emergency kit: Ensure you have a sturdy ice scraper and a bag of grit or salt in your trunk before the Jan 22 snow system arrives.
- Monitor Sussex/Warren advisories: If you commute through North Jersey, check the NWS updates specifically for "slippery travel" notices between 1 a.m. and 4 p.m. this Saturday.
- Seal the drafts: With multiple nights forecasted in the mid-teens next week, a quick window-sealing session this weekend will save you significantly on heating costs.