Honestly, if you’re looking at nike stock price today, you’re probably seeing a whole lot of red. As of January 16, 2026, the stock closed at $64.39, down about 0.31% for the day. That might not seem like a massive drop, but when you zoom out, the picture gets a bit messier. Over the last year, the stock is down nearly 7%. If you’ve been holding for three to five years? You’re looking at a haircut of almost 50%.
It’s a weird time for the Beaverton giant. One day you hear about "Project Amplify"—shoes with literal motors in them—and the next day you’re reading about double-digit drops in digital sales. Basically, Nike is in the middle of a high-stakes identity crisis, and investors are feeling the pinch.
What’s actually driving the price right now?
The market is currently digesting the aftermath of the fiscal 2026 second-quarter results. Revenue was basically flat at $12.4 billion, but the real gut punch was the net income. It plummeted 32% to $0.8 billion.
Why? Tariffs are a huge part of the headache.
North American tariffs have been eating into gross margins like crazy, which dropped 300 basis points to 40.6%. When it costs more to bring the shoes in and you're forced to offer discounts to keep people buying, your profits just evaporate.
Then there’s the CEO situation. Elliott Hill, a Nike veteran who came back to save the day in late 2024, is calling this the "middle innings" of a comeback. He’s been busy firing executives and flattening the management structure. He recently cut the CTO role and moved the heads of the four major regions (North America, China, etc.) directly onto his senior leadership team. It’s a "Win Now" strategy, but so far, the scoreboard isn't looking great.
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The Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) backfire
For years, the plan was simple: cut out the middleman. Nike stopped selling to a bunch of wholesalers and tried to force everyone to buy through their apps and stores.
It sorta backfired.
In the most recent quarter, NIKE Direct revenues were down 8%. Even worse, digital sales dropped 14%. People just aren't clicking "buy" on the app like they used to. Now, Hill is desperately trying to play nice with retailers again, even putting Nike gear back on Amazon.
Is the stock actually "cheap"?
This is where it gets technical, but stick with me.
Right now, Nike trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of about 38.5x. To put that in perspective:
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- The luxury industry average is around 21x.
- The general peer group average is 29x.
So, even though the price has crashed, the stock is actually more expensive than its rivals relative to what it earns. Simply Wall St recently ran a model suggesting the "intrinsic value" of the stock is closer to $53.15. If that’s true, the current price is actually 23% overvalued.
But wait. There’s a flip side.
Analysts at Guggenheim and RBC still have "Buy" or "Outperform" ratings on it. They’re looking at the innovation pipeline. We’re talking about "Nike Mind"—shoes designed with neuroscience to help athletes get in the zone—and "Aero-FIT" tech that supposedly doubles the airflow of regular clothes. If those hit, the narrative changes overnight.
The China problem and the "Agile" rivals
You can't talk about Nike without talking about China. Revenues there have been slipping, and it’s not just the economy. Local brands like Anta and Li-Ning are getting better, and agile Western challengers like Hoka and On are eating Nike’s lunch in the running category.
For the first time in decades, Nike isn't the "cool" new thing at the local track. They’re the incumbent trying to remember how to innovate.
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What should you actually do?
If you're looking at nike stock price today and wondering if you should buy the dip, you've got to be honest about your timeline.
Short-term outlook (Next 6 months):
It’s likely going to be volatile. Between tariff pressures in North America and a "non-linear" recovery, don't expect a moonshot. Management already said they don't expect the Direct business to grow much in fiscal 2026.
Long-term outlook (2027 and beyond):
This is the "comeback" bet. If Hill’s leadership shakeup works and the new product engine starts firing, fiscal 2027 could see earnings jump by 20% or more. Plus, they’ve increased dividends for 24 years straight. They aren't going broke.
Actionable insights for investors
- Watch the $52 level: That’s the 52-week low. If it breaks that, things could get ugly.
- Monitor the "Win Now" milestones: Specifically, look for any news on the "Project Amplify" launch. If the powered footwear goes mainstream, it could be a "Waffle Trainer" moment for a new generation.
- Check the wholesale numbers: If you see wholesale revenue continue to grow (it was up 8% last quarter), it means the "peace treaty" with retailers is working. That’s a good sign for volume, even if margins stay tight.
- Dividend Reinvestment: If you already own it, the 2.5% yield is a small consolation prize. Reinvesting those dividends while the price is low is a classic way to lower your cost basis while you wait for the turnaround.
Nike is a 60-year-old company that has seen plenty of "innovation crises" before. They usually find a way out, but this time, the competition is faster and the macro environment is harsher. It’s not a "set it and forget it" stock anymore. You’ve gotta keep a close eye on the footwear sales specifically—that’s 60% of their business, and right now, it’s the part that’s dragging them down.
Next Steps for You
- Compare the Valuation: Look at On Holding (ONON) or Deckers (DECK) to see if you'd rather bet on the "disruptors" than the "incumbent."
- Review the Dividend: Check your brokerage to ensure your NKE dividends are set to auto-reinvest if you’re playing the long game.
- Track the 2026 Product Drop: Keep an eye on the release dates for the "Mind 001" and "Aero-FIT" lines; consumer reception to these will be the ultimate leading indicator for the stock's recovery.