Nike is currently in a weird spot. If you’ve looked at your brokerage app lately, you probably saw the ticker $NKE hovering around $64. That’s a far cry from the triple-digit glory days of 2021. Honestly, it’s been a brutal few years for the Oregon giant. We’re talking about a stock that’s dropped over 50% from its all-time high.
So, everyone is asking the same thing: is nike stock buy or sell at these levels?
The answer isn't a simple yes or no. It depends on whether you believe Elliott Hill—the veteran who came out of retirement to save the company—can actually fix the internal plumbing before the brand loses its cool for good. There’s a lot of "turnaround" talk in the air. But as any seasoned investor knows, turnarounds are often just expensive ways to watch a stock go sideways.
The Mess Hill Inherited (and Why It Matters)
To understand the current bull and bear cases, you have to look at the wreckage of the last three years. The previous regime basically tried to turn Nike into a tech company. They cut off mom-and-pop sneaker shops and big partners like Foot Locker to go "Direct-to-Consumer" (DTC).
It backfired.
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By pulling shoes off the shelves where people actually shop, Nike handed market share to HOKA and On Holding on a silver platter. Suddenly, your local running store was full of Cloudsurfers and Bondis instead of Pegasus. On top of that, the innovation pipeline dried up. Nike started relying way too much on "lifestyle" shoes—think Dunks and Air Force 1s—which eventually flooded the market.
Now, the company is stuck in a heavy promotional cycle. They’re discounting the old stuff to make room for the new stuff. In the most recent Q2 2026 earnings, gross margins took a 300-basis-point hit, landing at 40.6%. That’s a fancy way of saying they’re making a lot less profit on every shoe they sell because they have to put them on the clearance rack.
Why Some People Are Quietly Buying
Despite the gloom, there’s a reason Nike isn't a "sell" for everyone. For one, the insiders are putting their money where their mouths are. In late 2024 and throughout 2025, we saw significant buying from the C-suite. CEO Elliott Hill picked up over $1 million worth of stock recently. Apple CEO Tim Cook, who sits on Nike’s board, also made a massive $3 million purchase.
When people who see the internal spreadsheets start buying, the market notices.
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Then there’s the "Nike Mind" platform. Launching in January 2026, this is Nike’s attempt to get its mojo back. It’s a neuroscience-based footwear line designed to stimulate sensory receptors in the feet. It sounds a bit sci-fi, but it’s the kind of high-performance innovation that made Nike famous in the first place. If they can move the needle with "Project Amplify" (their powered footwear system) or the "Aero-FIT" tech coming for the 2026 World Cup, the narrative could shift fast.
The Numbers You Can't Ignore
- Current Yield: 2.55% (They’ve raised the dividend for 24 years straight).
- Forward P/E: Roughly 33x to 37x depending on which analyst you ask.
- Revenue: $12.4 billion in the latest quarter (which actually beat expectations).
- The China Problem: Sales in Greater China are still a disaster, down double digits recently.
The Bear Case: Is the Price Still Too High?
Here’s the kicker. Even though the stock price is down, Nike is still expensive.
Most luxury or consumer discretionary stocks trade at a lower multiple than Nike’s current P/E. If you look at the S&P 500 average, it’s around 22x. Nike is sitting way above that. You’re essentially paying a premium for a "maybe." Maybe the turnaround works. Maybe China stops buying local brands like Li-Ning and goes back to the Swoosh. Maybe the new shoes are actually good.
If those "maybes" don't happen, there’s plenty of room for the stock to drop into the $50s. Analyst Tom Nikic over at Needham has been vocal about the bearish outlook, and he’s not alone. The new U.S. tariff regimes are also a massive headache. Analysts estimate these could add $1.5 billion in costs. Nike is trying to diversify out of China, but you don't move a global supply chain overnight.
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Verdict on Nike Stock Buy or Sell
So, where does that leave you?
If you are a dividend-focused investor, Nike is becoming a "Dividend Aristocrat" candidate. They have the cash to keep paying you to wait. But if you’re looking for a quick "V-shaped" recovery, you might be disappointed. The company themselves said 2026 would be "incredibly choppy."
Buy if: You have a 3-5 year horizon, believe in Elliott Hill’s "Win Now" strategy, and want a 2.5% yield while the brand rebuilds its wholesale relationships.
Sell/Avoid if: You’re worried about the premium valuation relative to zero growth, or if you think HOKA and On have permanently stolen the "cool" factor from Nike’s running division.
Actionable Steps for Investors
Don't just jump in because the logo is iconic. If you're looking to play the nike stock buy or sell game, start by watching the inventory levels in the next quarterly report. If inventory keeps falling (it was down 3% recently), it means they are finally clearing the "lifestyle" junk. Also, keep a close eye on the 2026 World Cup apparel launches. If the Aero-FIT technology doesn't land with athletes, it’s a sign that the innovation engine is still stalled. For most, a "Wait and See" approach until the $60 support level is tested again is likely the safest move in this volatile market.