Honestly, if you've been tracking the sneaker world lately, you know things feel different. The air in the local Foot Locker is a little less "Jumpman" and a lot more "Dad shoe." This isn't just a vibe or a hunch from some hypebeasts on Reddit. Stifel, the big-time investment firm, just dropped their latest footwear survey data, and the numbers for Nike are—to put it bluntly—kinda terrifying for investors.
For decades, the Nike mentions in Stifel survey reports were basically a victory lap. You’d see the "Swoosh" dominating every category from middle school basketball courts to high-fashion runways. Not anymore. The 2025 and early 2026 data shows Nike hitting an all-time low for brand popularity since the survey started way back in 2008.
Basically, the king is losing its crown, and it's happening faster than most people realized.
The Shocking Numbers Behind the Stifel Survey
Let's look at the cold, hard stats. In Stifel's most recent "Back-to-School" (BTS) checks, Nike (including the Jordan Brand) was cited as the "most popular" brand in only about 38.2% of store checks.
Now, you might think, "Hey, 38% is still a big chunk!" Sure. But context is everything here. Just a couple of years ago, that number was hovering over 60%. We are talking about a 23-percentage-point drop in a single year. That is a massive cliff.
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What makes this even weirder? The Jordan Brand—usually the untouchable icon of cool—didn't even crack the Top 10 most popular styles in several of the recent retail checks. That sort of thing was unthinkable in 2021. Stifel analyst Jim Duffy and his team visited over 110 stores, including heavy hitters like Dick’s Sporting Goods and JD Sports, and the feedback was remarkably consistent: people are moving on.
Why the "Hoops Classic" Era is Dying
So, what’s actually happening? Why are the Nike mentions in Stifel survey notes sounding so gloomy? It boils down to a shift in what we actually want on our feet. For the last five years, everyone and their mother was wearing Nike Dunks, Air Force 1s, or Jordan 1s. Stifel refers to these as "Hoops Classics."
The problem? We’re all bored.
- Saturation: You can only see so many "Pandas" (those black and white Dunks) in the wild before they stop feeling special.
- The Comfort Pivot: We’ve entered the era of the "Retro Runner."
- The Challenger Brands: While Nike was busy resting on its retro laurels, brands like New Balance, Hoka, and Adidas started eating their lunch.
Adidas has been on a tear with "Terrace" styles—think the Samba or Gazelle. Meanwhile, the "Dad shoe" aesthetic is thriving. If you look at the Stifel data, the Nike Vomero 5 is one of the few bright spots. It’s a "Retro Runner" style that actually saw growth in mentions. But one shoe can't carry a $100 billion company.
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The Disconnect Between Digital and Physical
Here is a weird nuance from the Stifel report that nobody is talking about: Nike is actually still doing "okay" online.
On retailer websites, Nike and Jordan products still represent about 46% of the top 20 styles. But in the physical stores—where you can actually touch the leather and try the things on—they are losing ground.
Jim Duffy’s team noted that this suggests Nike is the "default" choice. If you're just clicking "buy" for a kid's school shoes, you pick Nike. But when consumers are in a store looking at all the options side-by-side, they are increasingly reaching for a pair of New Balance 2002Rs or Asics Gels. The "tangibility of choice" is hurting the Swoosh.
Can Elliott Hill Save the Ship?
Nike recently brought back industry veteran Elliott Hill as CEO to try and fix this. The Stifel survey mentions basically serve as his "to-do" list.
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- Stop over-relying on the 1980s: You can't just release the Jordan 1 in a different shade of blue and expect the world to stop.
- Fix the wholesale relationships: Nike spent years trying to sell "Direct to Consumer" (DTC), which annoyed retailers like Foot Locker. Now, they're crawling back, but those retailers have already filled their shelves with Hoka and On Running.
- Innovation is MIA: Where is the next "Air" or "Flyknit"? The survey shows consumers feel the innovation pipeline has gone dry.
The 2026 Outlook: Is it a Buy?
Despite the depressing survey results, Stifel (and many other firms) haven't totally given up. Most analysts have a "Hold" or "Moderate Buy" on the stock. Why? Because the inventory is finally clean. In late 2025 and heading into 2026, Nike's inventory levels normalized. They aren't sitting on piles of unsold shoes anymore, which means they don't have to slash prices.
But "not losing money" isn't the same as "winning."
Stifel’s price targets for Nike have been bouncing around the $65 to $75 range. They think a turnaround is "inevitable" because of the sheer scale of the brand, but it might take until 2027 to actually see Nike regain its market share dominance.
What You Should Do Now
If you’re an investor or just a sneakerhead trying to read the tea leaves, here are the real-world takeaways from the Nike mentions in Stifel survey data:
- Watch the "Retro Runner" trend: If Nike can successfully launch more shoes like the Vomero 5 or the Pegasus 2K5, they might capture the current vibe.
- Monitor the discount racks: If you start seeing Jordans sitting at 40% off in retail stores, the "scarcity" model is officially dead.
- Keep an eye on New Balance: Stifel’s data shows New Balance is the primary beneficiary of Nike's decline. If New Balance starts hitting 20%+ share in these surveys, the landscape has fundamentally shifted.
The bottom line? Nike isn't going anywhere, but the era of "easy growth" through retro sneakers is over. They have to actually innovate again. If they don't, the next Stifel survey might look even worse.
Your next move: Check your own rotation. Are you still reaching for those Jordans, or is there a pair of "Dad shoes" creeping into your closet? If you're looking to play the market, keep a close eye on Nike's F3Q26 earnings—that's where we'll see if Elliott Hill's "Great Reset" is actually working or just more corporate talk.