If you were looking for a clear-cut, Connor Bedard-style runaway for the first overall pick this year, I’ve got some bad news. Honestly, the race for the top spot among NHL top prospects 2025 has been a bit of a localized mess. We started the cycle with James Hagens looking like a lock, but then the OHL decided to produce a defensive prodigy and a scoring machine that turned the consensus upside down.
By the time the mid-season rankings hit in January 2026, scouts were basically pulling their hair out trying to figure out if you take the elite puck-moving defenseman or the "exceptional status" forward who just put up video game numbers. It's the kind of year where a team's specific "needs" actually dictate the No. 1 pick, which doesn't happen often.
The Matthew Schaefer Surge
For a long time, the hockey world has been obsessed with finding the next Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes. You know the type: a guy who skates like the ice is optional and handles the puck like it's on a string. Matthew Schaefer from the Erie Otters is that guy.
He didn't have an easy path. The kid dealt with mononucleosis to start the year and then a brutal broken clavicle during the World Juniors that sidelined him for three months. Most prospects would see their stock plummet after missing that much time. Schaefer? He stayed at No. 1 on the Central Scouting midterm list.
Scouts are obsessed with his 6-foot-2 frame and the way he just... disappears from forecheckers. He had 22 points in just 17 games before the injury. That’s a 1.29 point-per-game pace from the blue line. It’s rare. It’s the kind of production that makes GMs overlook a surgical scar on a collarbone.
Michael Misa and the "Exceptional" Tag
Then there’s Michael Misa. Remember that name? He’s the Saginaw Spirit star who got exceptional status to enter the OHL early. For a while, people were actually "prospect-fatigued" with him. We’ve been watching him so long that we started looking for flaws that weren't there.
Misa shut everyone up this past season. He led the entire CHL with 134 points. You read that right. 62 goals. He’s been compared to John Tavares because of that "pro-style" brain. He doesn't just play fast; he thinks fast. If a team like the San Jose Sharks—who already have Celebrini—gets their hands on a playmaker like Misa, it’s basically over for the rest of the Pacific Division.
James Hagens: The Playmaker Under the Microscope
It’s weird to talk about a guy who scored a pivotal goal in a World Junior gold medal game as someone who "slipped," but that’s the reality for James Hagens. He’s been the engine for Boston College, playing between absolute studs like Gabe Perreault and Ryan Leonard.
Scouts still love his vision. His hockey IQ is basically off the charts. But he’s 5-foot-10 and change. In a draft where the other top guys are 6-foot-2 or 6-foot-3, that matters to some old-school front offices.
He put up 37 points in 37 games as a freshman. Solid? Absolutely. Elite? Some scouts wanted more. There was a stretch in the middle of the season where he went cold in big games, and that’s when the "he’s too small" whispers started getting louder. Personally, I think whoever gets him at No. 3 or No. 4 is getting the steal of the decade. His passing is just different.
The Power Forwards: Martone and McQueen
If you like your hockey with a bit of "snarl," the 2025 class has you covered. Porter Martone is basically a unicorn. He’s 6-foot-3, over 200 pounds, and he has the hands of a surgeon. He captained the Brampton Steelheads and put up nearly 100 points while also being the most annoying person on the ice to play against.
- Porter Martone: 98 points in 57 games. A total wrecking ball.
- Roger McQueen: A 6-foot-5 center from the Brandon Wheat Kings. He’s been hampered by injuries (a back issue and then some), but when he’s healthy, he looks like a younger, more mobile version of some of the league's best power centers.
McQueen is a fascinating case. He’s headed to Providence College now, and while some scouts "red-flagged" him because of the injuries, his raw ceiling is arguably higher than anyone’s. You can’t teach 6-foot-5 with a soft touch.
Why the Rankings Keep Flipping
The reason the NHL top prospects 2025 list looks like a revolving door is the lack of a "safe" pick.
Schaefer is a defenseman with an injury history. Misa is an elite scorer whose two-way game needs polish. Hagens is a genius who lacks size. Martone is a physical beast who sometimes plays a bit too close to the edge.
Even the international side is wild. Victor Eklund (yes, William’s brother) is tearing it up in Sweden. Then you have Anton Frondell, who has better U18 production than Filip Forsberg did at the same age, but he’s been inconsistent against his own age group.
Breaking Down the Mid-Season Top 10
If the draft happened tomorrow, here is how the consensus roughly looks, though keep in mind every scout has a different "flavor of the week":
- Matthew Schaefer (D, Erie): The total package. No. 1 D-man potential.
- Michael Misa (C, Saginaw): Pure offensive engine. High-floor, high-ceiling.
- Porter Martone (RW, Brampton): The "heaviness" every playoff team craves.
- Anton Frondell (C, Djurgårdens): Swedish power and finesse.
- James Hagens (C, Boston College): The best pure passer in the class.
- Caleb Desnoyers (C, Moncton): A defensive wizard who actually scores now.
- Jake O’Brien (C, Brantford): High-IQ center who surged late.
- Roger McQueen (C, Brandon): The 6'5 wild card.
- Victor Eklund (RW, Djurgårdens): High motor, high skill.
- Jackson Smith (D, Tri-City): A massive, mobile blueliner.
The "Sleeper" to Watch
Keep an eye on Caleb Desnoyers. He’s the younger brother of Flyers prospect Elliot Desnoyers, but he’s a much different animal. He’s 6-foot-2 and plays a game that scouts call "pro-ready." He’s one of those guys who doesn't wow you with a 100-mph slap shot but just does everything right. He won three gold medals in nine months with Team Canada at various levels. That isn't an accident. He knows how to win.
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What This Means for Your Team
If your team is picking in the top five, you're getting a franchise-altering player. This isn't a "weak" draft; it's just a "flat" one at the top.
If you need a power play quarterback, you pray Schaefer falls. If you need a top-line center, Misa or Hagens are your guys. This class is deep in the first two rounds, but the real value is in that top tier where the talent is essentially interchangeable.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Dynasty Managers
- Watch the Frozen Four: James Hagens’ performance under NCAA pressure will be the final data point scouts use to determine if he’s a Top 3 pick or a Top 5 pick.
- Monitor Schaefer's Recovery: If he returns for the OHL playoffs and looks like his old self, he will likely be the first defenseman taken No. 1 overall since Owen Power in 2021.
- Don't ignore the "Q": Caleb Desnoyers is the real deal. If he slides to the 8-10 range, he’s the best value pick in the entire draft.
- Value the Size: In a playoff-driven league, guys like Martone and McQueen will always get a "bump" on draft day over smaller skill players.
The 2025 draft cycle is going to be a sprint to the finish. With the lottery odds shifting and the rankings in constant flux, the final few months of the season will be the most important stretch of these kids' lives.