Everyone thought they had it figured out. Back in October, the conversation around the NHL rookie of the year felt like a one-man show. Macklin Celebrini was supposed to just walk into the league, drop 80 points for the San Jose Sharks, and collect his hardware at the end of the night. Easy, right?
Hockey never works that way.
We are currently witnessing one of the most chaotic, defense-heavy Calder Trophy races in recent memory. If you’ve been watching the New York Islanders lately, you know exactly why. Matthew Schaefer, the 18-year-old kid from the 2025 draft, isn't just "playing well." He is rewriting the rules for what a teenage defenseman is allowed to do in the pros.
The Matthew Schaefer Surge and the Blue Line Revolution
It’s actually kinda wild. Usually, young defensemen spend their first year getting shoved into the boards and learning how not to turn the puck over. Schaefer? He’s playing nearly 24 minutes a night.
As of mid-January 2026, Schaefer leads all rookies in a category that usually belongs to 25-year-old veterans: Time on Ice. He’s sitting at an average of 23:50 per game. For a kid who was playing junior hockey last year, that’s basically unheard of. Patrick Roy, who knows a thing or two about high-pressure environments, has been leaning on him like a seasoned pro.
Basically, the Islanders found a unicorn. Schaefer has 28 points through 42 games, with 12 of those being goals. Think about that for a second. An 18-year-old defenseman on pace for 20+ goals. He’s already broken records for the youngest blueliner to reach the 25-point mark, a record previously held by legends who didn't even face the kind of speed we see in today’s game.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Calder Trophy
There is a huge misconception that the NHL rookie of the year is just a "most points" award. It’s not. It’s "most proficient." That distinction matters because it opens the door for goalies and lockdown defenders who don’t always light up the scoresheet.
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The Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) handles the voting. These are people who watch the games, not just the highlights. They look at:
- Impact on team success: Is the player dragging their team into a playoff spot?
- Context of usage: Is a forward getting easy minutes, or are they killing penalties?
- Consistency: Did they have one hot month, or are they a 82-game rock?
Take a look at Jesper Wallstedt in Minnesota. Goalies almost never win the Calder—the last one was Steve Mason nearly two decades ago. But Wallstedt has been keeping the Wild alive with a save percentage north of .915. If the season ended today, he’d likely be a finalist.
Honestly, the "points only" mentality is why people were shocked when Lane Hutson ran away with the award in 2025. Hutson wasn't just a scorer; he was a transition machine for Montreal. He played over 1,800 minutes last season, which was 500 more than any other rookie. That’s how you win over the voters. You make yourself indispensable.
The Forward Pack: Demidov and the Underdogs
While the defensemen are grabbing the headlines, the forward crop this year is deep, even if there isn't a Connor Bedard-level superstar running away with it. Ivan Demidov has been the bright spot in Montreal. He’s leading all rookie forwards with 39 points.
He plays with that Nikita Kucherov-style deception. You think he’s out of the play, and then suddenly he’s threaded a pass through three sticks for a backdoor tap-in.
Then you have Beckett Sennecke in Anaheim. He’s got 35 points and provides that "grit plus skill" combo that GMs drool over. It’s a different vibe than the pure skill of Demidov, but in terms of value to his team, Sennecke is right there.
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Why We Should Stop Comparing Everyone to McDavid
Every time a new #1 pick like Macklin Celebrini shows up, the media tries to find the next generational talent. It puts an unfair weight on these kids. Celebrini had a massive 2024-25 season with 63 points in 70 games, but he finished third in the NHL rookie of the year voting.
Why? Because the 2024-25 race was a bloodbath.
Matvei Michkov was doing "The Magic Man" things in Philly, scoring 26 goals and carrying the Flyers' power play. Logan Stankoven was being a Swiss Army Knife in Carolina. When the talent pool is that deep, being "great" isn't enough. You have to be "transformative."
Schaefer is being transformative for the Islanders in 2026. That’s the difference.
The 2025-26 Rookie Scoring Race (Mid-Season)
- Ivan Demidov (MTL): 39 Points
- Beckett Sennecke (ANA): 35 Points
- Matthew Schaefer (NYI): 30 Points (Defenseman)
- Ryan Leonard (WSH): 28 Points
- Oliver Kapanen (MTL): 27 Points
The fact that Schaefer is third in total points while being a defenseman is just stupidly impressive. He’s not just "good for a rookie." He’s one of the most effective skaters in the Metropolitan Division, period.
The "Wall" and the Fatigue Factor
You’ve probably heard of the "rookie wall." It’s real. Most of these kids come from college or European leagues where they play 40 or 50 games. The NHL is a 82-game grind.
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John Tortorella talked about this a lot with Michkov last year. Michkov started with 27 points in 27 games—a point-per-game pace! Then he hit February and the tank went empty. He only had nine points in a 28-game stretch.
That’s what voters watch for in the second half of the season. Can Matthew Schaefer keep playing 24 minutes a night when it’s March and he’s played more hockey than ever before? Can Wallstedt keep his focus when the travel schedule gets brutal?
Actionable Insights for the Rest of the Season
If you're tracking the NHL rookie of the year race for a fantasy league or just to look smart at the bar, keep your eyes on these three things:
- Watch the Power Play Usage: Players like Demidov and Schaefer get massive "stat pads" on the man advantage. If a coach moves them to the second unit, their Calder chances tank.
- Check the "Games Played" Column: Voters love durability. A player with 60 points in 80 games often beats a player with 55 points in 60 games because "availability is the best ability."
- Identify the "Narrative": If the Islanders make the playoffs because of Schaefer’s defense, he wins. If Montreal misses but Demidov hits 75 points, it’s a toss-up.
This race is far from over. Last year taught us that a late-season surge (like Michkov’s 10 goals in his final 25 games) can change everything. But right now, the kid on Long Island is the one to beat.
To stay ahead of the curve, keep a close eye on the weekly NHL EDGE stats. Specifically, look at max skating speed and zone time. Players like Lane Hutson and Matthew Schaefer dominate because they keep the puck in the offensive zone far longer than the league average, which eventually leads to the "counting stats" that voters crave. Pay attention to how these rookies handle the "Three-in-Four" nights—consecutive games in different cities—as that's where the true Calder contenders separate themselves from the ones who just had a lucky October.