If you’ve spent any time looking at the NHL standings lately, you know the vibe. It’s messy. As of mid-January 2026, the Eastern Conference basically looks like a crowded subway car where everyone is fighting for the last seat. You’ve got teams like the Philadelphia Flyers and Detroit Red Wings hanging onto wild card spots by their fingernails, while "preseason locks" like the New Jersey Devils are wondering how they ended up in a hole this deep.
But here’s the thing: looking at the points column is only giving you half the story. The NHL remaining strength of schedule is the invisible hand that’s about to wreck some seasons and save others.
Most fans look at a three-point lead and think their team is safe. They aren't. Not when you realize one team has twelve games left against the bottom-feeders while another is about to run a gauntlet of Cup contenders. If you're trying to figure out who’s actually going to be playing in late April, you have to look at the "math behind the math."
The Brutal Reality of the Atlantic Division
Honestly, the Atlantic is a bloodbath this year. If you look at the recent data from Tankathon, the teams with the hardest roads ahead are almost all clustered in this division.
Ottawa and Detroit are currently sitting at the top of the "hardest remaining" list. The Senators, specifically, are staring down a remaining opponent winning percentage of roughly .585. That is astronomical. It’s not just that they have to play good teams; it’s that they have to play them while fighting through the densest part of their calendar.
Detroit is in a similar spot. They’ve had some decent injury luck so far—basically staying healthier than almost anyone in the East—but that luck is being tested by a schedule that ranks as the second-toughest in the league. When you’re relying on a mix of veterans and young guys to hold a playoff spot, a February stretch against the likes of Colorado and Carolina can turn a "shaky" position into a "vacation in April" real fast.
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Contrast that with a team like the Buffalo Sabres. They’ve actually been playing better than their record suggests—their underlying metrics for puck possession and chance generation are surprisingly high. They’ve also dealt with way more than their fair share of injuries. As they get healthy, they’re moving into a much softer part of the schedule. If you’re looking for a "climber," it’s probably Buffalo.
Who Gets a Free Pass?
On the flip side, some teams are probably laughing at their travel itineraries right now. The Colorado Avalanche, who are currently steamrolling the league with a 33-5-8 record (yeah, Nathan MacKinnon is basically a video game character at this point), have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the Western Conference.
It’s almost unfair.
They already have the best record, and now they get to spend a significant portion of the spring playing teams that are already eyeing the 2026 NHL Draft lottery. It’s a similar story for the New Jersey Devils. Despite their struggles earlier in the season, the math says they have one of the ten easiest paths left. If they’re going to make a run, the door is wide open.
Why "Strength" Isn't Just About the Opponent
We talk about the NHL remaining strength of schedule like it’s just about who you play. It's not. It's also about when and where you play them.
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Take the "Light Nights" factor. In the NHL, most games happen on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays. When a team has a lot of games on "off-nights" like Mondays or Wednesdays, it usually means they are better rested than their opponent, or at least they aren't caught in the "three games in four nights" trap.
- Schedule Density: This is the silent killer. A team might play a "weak" opponent, but if it’s their fifth game in seven days across three time zones, that weak opponent is suddenly a lot more dangerous.
- Home-Ice Loading: Some teams, like the New York Rangers, played a road-heavy first half. Their remaining schedule looks "easy" because they’re sleeping in their own beds for 60% of their remaining games.
- The Olympic Break Factor: Remember, 2026 is an Olympic year. The break in February for the Milano Cortina games changes everything. Some teams are going to send eight or nine players to Italy. Those guys are going to come back exhausted or, worse, injured. A "soft" March schedule doesn't mean much if your top two centers are playing on one leg after a gold-medal game.
The Fraud Alert: Teams overachieving
There are a few teams that the NHL remaining strength of schedule metrics suggest are "frauds"—or at least due for a massive reality check.
The Philadelphia Flyers are the primary suspects here. They’ve stayed remarkably healthy and have benefited from some unsustainable shooting percentages. But look at their schedule: it’s the 10th hardest remaining. When the "puck luck" dries up and they hit a stretch of ten games against top-ten teams, that playoff cushion is going to evaporate.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are in a similar boat. Sidney Crosby is still playing at an MVP level at 38, which is insane, but the roster is thin. Tankathon ranks their remaining schedule as the 7th most difficult. They have almost no margin for error. One bad week in March could be the end of the Crosby/Malkin era in the postseason.
Moving Beyond the SOS Rankings
If you’re a betting person or just a die-hard fan trying to manage your expectations, don’t just look at the SOS percentage. Look at the head-to-head matchups.
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The Western Conference playoff race is being shaped by the "Mammoth." The Utah Mammoth have been the surprise of the season, consistently winning games where the "nerds" (analytics) say they should have lost. They have a middle-of-the-road schedule, but they play a lot of "four-point" games against Vancouver and Calgary in the final month. Those games will basically count double.
Actionable Insights for the Stretch Run
If you want to actually use this information, here is what you should be watching:
- Watch the "Games in Hand" Column: A team might be 4 points out of a spot, but if they’ve played three fewer games than the team they’re chasing, they’re actually in the driver’s seat—assuming their SOS isn't brutal.
- Monitor Post-Olympic Fatigue: Keep an eye on the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning. These teams are loaded with international stars. If they look sluggish in late February, that easy schedule won't save them.
- Identify the "Trap" Games: Look for "rested vs. tired" scenarios. If the Avalanche are playing the second half of a back-to-back against a rested (but bad) Chicago team, that’s where the upsets happen.
- Trust the Underlying Metrics for the Sabres and Devils: Both teams have hard-luck records but "easy" remaining schedules. They are the most likely to go on a 10-2-0 tear.
The standings you see today aren't the standings you’ll see in April. The NHL remaining strength of schedule ensures that. While the Colorado Avalanche look poised to cruise into a top seed, the battle for those final wild card spots in the East is going to be decided by who survives the schedule gauntlet, not just who has the most talent.
Keep an eye on those schedule density charts. They tell a much more honest story than the league leaders page ever will.
Next Steps: Check the latest injury reports for the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings. Their difficult schedules become nearly impossible if they lose even one or two more top-six forwards before the February break. You should also verify the "games in hand" for the New York Islanders, as they currently have a harder schedule but more opportunities to make up ground than their Metropolitan rivals.