Hockey in January is basically a war of attrition. You’ve got guys playing through broken ribs, goalies seeing ghosts, and coaches pacing behind the bench like they’re waiting for a jury verdict. If the postseason started right this second, on January 18, 2026, the bracket would look like a total nightmare for about half the league.
Colorado is just... unfair. Honestly, the Avalanche are playing a different sport than everyone else right now. They’ve got 74 points and a goal differential that looks like a typo. When you’re +75 in the middle of January, you aren’t just winning; you’re demoralizing people.
But the real chaos? That’s happening in the Eastern Conference. The Atlantic Division is a literal knife fight. One night you're in second place, the next you're staring at the Wild Card curb. It’s tight. It’s messy. And it’s exactly why we love this game.
Eastern Conference: The Atlantic Meat Grinder
If we’re looking at nhl playoff matchups as of today, the East is where the heart attacks are happening. The Tampa Bay Lightning have somehow surged back to the top of the Atlantic with 62 points. They just beat Dallas 3-1 today, showing that they still know how to suffocate a lead.
The Detroit Red Wings are right there with them, also sitting at 62 points. It’s weird seeing Detroit this relevant again, isn’t it? They’ve got this gritty, "we won't go away" energy that has to be annoying to play against. Then you have the Montreal Canadiens with 61 points. If the season ended now, we’d be getting a Lightning vs. Bruins opening round because Boston is currently the first Wild Card.
Can you imagine the TV ratings for that?
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Here is how the East shakes out if the puck dropped for Game 1 tonight:
The Carolina Hurricanes are the kings of the Metro right now. They’ve got 64 points and that relentless Rod Brind'Amour system that just wears teams down until they quit. They’d be slated to face the Buffalo Sabres, who are holding onto that second Wild Card spot by the skin of their teeth with 57 points.
The other Metro matchup is a classic: New York Islanders (57 points) against the Pittsburgh Penguins (55 points). Sidney Crosby is still doing Crosby things in 2026, which is both impressive and slightly terrifying for anyone who has to defend him in a seven-game series.
Western Conference: Colorado and Everyone Else
In the West, it’s the Colorado Avalanche’s world. We’re just living in it. They’d be lining up against the San Jose Sharks, who have clawed their way into the final Wild Card spot. On paper? It’s a sweep. In reality? Well, it's hockey. Anything can happen, but I wouldn't bet my car on the Sharks there.
The Central Division is a fascinating mess behind Colorado. The Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild are tied at 63 points. Because of tiebreakers, they’d be playing each other in the first round. That is a heavyweight bout. Dallas has that balanced scoring, but Minnesota has been different since the Quinn Hughes trade. He’s transformed their blue line. Watching him and Kirill Kaprizov on the same ice in the playoffs would be worth the price of admission alone.
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Over in the Pacific, the Vegas Golden Knights are leading the charge with 60 points. They’ve been a bit "meh" lately, going 5-3-2 in their last ten, but they always seem to find another gear when the lights get bright. They’d be facing the Utah Mammoth, who are currently the first Wild Card in the West.
The other Pacific battle? Edmonton Oilers vs. Seattle Kraken.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are doing their usual 100-plus point pace stuff. The Oilers’ power play is clicking at over 33%. That’s basically a guaranteed goal every three times you trip someone. Seattle is a tough out, though. They play that heavy, puck-pursuit game that can frustrate even the best superstars.
Why These Matchups Probably Won't Last
Look, the "if the playoffs started today" game is fun, but it's also a lie.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are currently sitting just outside the bubble. They’ve won their last few games, including a big overtime win against Winnipeg yesterday. They’re only one point back from a playoff spot. You know the narrative—Toronto either makes a miraculous run or collapses in spectacular fashion. There is no middle ground.
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The Florida Panthers are also lurking. They beat Washington 5-2 today. They’re veteran, they’re mean, and they have that "been there, done that" swagger from their recent Cup runs. Nobody in the Atlantic wants to see them jump into a top-three spot in the final weeks.
Injuries are the other X-factor. The Panthers are waiting on Matthew Tkachuk and Brad Marchand to get back to 100%. If those two are healthy by April, Florida becomes a completely different animal.
Actionable Insights for the Second Half
If you’re tracking these nhl playoff matchups as of today, here is what you need to keep an eye on to see who actually makes the cut:
- The Metro Goaltending: The Islanders and Penguins are leaning heavily on their starters. If Sorokin or Jarry gets a "tweak" in February, those spots are wide open for Washington or even a surging New Jersey team.
- Colorado's Health: The Avs are so far ahead they might start resting guys early. That could lead to some weird losses in March that shift the seeding for the bottom of the West.
- The Atlantic Tiebreakers: With Tampa, Detroit, and Montreal separated by a single point, regulation wins (RW) are going to be everything. Watch those "four-point" games between divisional rivals; they're essentially playoff games in January.
- Power Play Efficiency: Keep an eye on Edmonton. If their PP stays above 30%, they can overcome almost any defensive lapses. But if it goes cold, they are vulnerable to a team like Seattle that plays disciplined hockey.
The playoff race is a marathon, not a sprint. But right now, the marathon is entering the stage where everyone’s legs are burning and the finish line is finally visible. It’s going to be a wild ride to April.
Check the standings every morning, because in this league, twenty-four hours is an eternity. One bad bounce off a defenseman's skate can be the difference between a home-ice advantage and a tee time at the local golf course.
The best way to stay ahead is to watch the goal differential and the strength of schedule for these bubble teams. Buffalo has a brutal February coming up, while the Rangers have a lot of home games against sub-.500 teams. That’s where the movement will happen. Keep your eyes on the "Games in Hand" column—it’s the most underrated stat in hockey.