The hockey world usually follows a pretty predictable rhythm. July 1st hits, a few massive checks get cut, and we all argue about which general manager just ruined their team’s salary cap for the next decade. But look at the calendar. It is early 2026, and the upcoming off-season feels... weird. Honestly, it’s because the "big fish" keep jumping back into their own ponds before anyone else can even cast a line.
If you were hoping for a bidding war over the best player on the planet, I’ve got some bad news. Connor McDavid already took himself off the board. In October 2025, he signed a two-year extension with the Edmonton Oilers worth $25 million ($12.5 million AAV). It starts in the 2026-27 season. He literally chose winning over a massive raise, leaving 31 other fanbases staring at their "McDavid 2026" jerseys in the closet.
So, where does that leave us?
With the salary cap projected to skyrocket to $104 million for the 2026-27 season, teams have more "stupid money" than ever before. But with McDavid and Kirill Kaprizov (who signed a monster $136 million deal with Minnesota) locked up, the 2026 NHL free agency predictions have shifted from "Who gets the superstars?" to "Who overpays for the veterans?"
The Artemi Panarin Dilemma in New York
The biggest story right now is coming out of Manhattan. It’s no secret anymore. Chris Drury basically sent a "Dear John" letter to the Rangers faithful, signaling a retool. Artemi Panarin is 34. He’s still elite, but he's also entering the final months of an $11.6 million cap hit.
The rumor mill is spinning fast on this one. Reports from the New York Post suggest the Rangers won’t even offer him an extension. They want to get younger, faster, and presumably, cheaper.
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But here is the catch: Panarin has a full no-movement clause.
He holds all the cards. If he doesn't want to leave Broadway before the March trade deadline, he doesn't have to. However, playing as a lame-duck star on a team that’s openly trying to move you is a tough vibe. Expect a contender with cap space—maybe a team like Detroit or even Utah—to make a massive push if Panarin decides he’s ready for one last big adventure.
The $100 Million Cap and the "Middle Class" Gold Mine
We’ve spent years complaining about the flat cap. It sucked. It killed trades. It forced good players into one-year "show me" deals. Well, that era is dead. With the cap hitting $104 million, we are entering a "player empowerment" phase that looks more like the NBA every day.
Look at the names still on the UFA list:
- Jack Eichel: Still the centerpiece in Vegas, but they are always one shiny new toy away from a trade.
- Kyle Connor: One of the most underrated snipers in the game. Winnipeg will fight to keep him, but 40-goal scorers don't grow on trees.
- Alex Tuch: He loves Buffalo. He’s said it publicly. But if the Sabres don't show real progress, does he stay?
- Adrian Kempe: The Kings are in a weird spot, and Kempe is going to command a massive raise from his current $5.5 million AAV.
Teams like San Jose, Chicago, and Detroit are sitting on mountains of cap space. San Jose specifically has over $15 million right now and that's before the jump. They need culture setters. Expect them to be the ones throwing 7-year deals at guys in their late 20s just to get some gravity in that locker room.
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The Goalie Carousel: Is Anyone Safe?
Goaltending is the ultimate "I can fix him" project for NHL GMs. This summer, the names are fascinating. Sergei Bobrovsky is 37 and coming off a $10 million AAV deal. Florida has a decision to make. Do you run it back with a legend, or do you let the age curve finally win?
Then there's the Igor Shesterkin situation. While he's technically a 2025 story in terms of the initial drama, the ripple effects on the 2026 market are huge. If the Rangers are retooling, does Igor want to stay for a rebuild? Every goalie contract signed this summer—from Stuart Skinner in Edmonton to Filip Gustavsson in Minnesota—will be measured against the bar Shesterkin and Bobrovsky set.
Why Cale Makar is the Ghost of Free Agency Future
Cale Makar isn't a free agent until 2027. So why am I talking about him now? Because 2026 is the year he becomes eligible for an extension.
The Avalanche are currently tight against the cap. They always are. With Makar likely looking at a deal north of $12 million (honestly, probably more like $14 million in this new economy), Colorado has to start clearing the deck this summer. You might see them move a piece you didn't expect just to ensure they can hand Makar a blank check the second they're allowed to.
Predicting the Big Moves
I'll be honest. I think we see a lot of "trade and sign" deals this year. Teams are terrified of the open market because of how high the floor has risen.
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- Artemi Panarin to a "Rising" Team: If the Rangers eat some salary, a team like Chicago could pair Panarin with Connor Bedard. Imagine that power play. It’s the kind of move that accelerates a rebuild by three years.
- The Predators Go Fishing (Again): Barry Trotz isn't afraid of big swings. If Kyle Connor hits the market, Nashville will be the first phone call.
- Vegas Does Vegas Things: Jack Eichel is a UFA in 2026. Do they keep him? Or do they trade him for the next disgruntled superstar? Never bet against the Golden Knights making a move that makes everyone else's head hurt.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Off-season
If you’re a fan trying to make sense of the madness, keep these three things in mind:
- Watch the "Internal" Cap: Just because the NHL says a team can spend $104 million doesn't mean the owner will. Look for teams with high revenue growth—like Utah and Seattle—to be more aggressive than traditional small-market clubs.
- The RFA "Squeeze": Young stars like Connor Bedard and Jason Robertson are up for new deals. With the cap rising 9% year-over-year, look for these guys to take "bridge" deals. Why sign for 8 years now when you can sign for 3 and then demand $20 million a year in 2029?
- The Trade Deadline is the Real Free Agency: Because so many stars (McDavid, Kaprizov) are re-signing early, the "Free Agency" period actually starts in March at the trade deadline. That’s when the true landscape of July 1st is decided.
The 2026 market is going to be defined by the "Haves" and the "Have-Nots." If your team has cap space, it’s going to be a fun, expensive summer. If they don't, prepare for some painful "salary dump" trades that will make you miss the old days of the $80 million cap.
Stay tuned to the waiver wires and the rumor mills. Things are about to get very expensive, very fast.
Next Steps for Hockey Fans:
Check your favorite team's current commitments on CapWages or Spotrac. Look specifically at the 2026-27 column. If they have more than 10 roster spots to fill and less than $30 million in space, they are in for a long summer of bargain hunting. If they have $40 million+ like the Sharks or Blackhawks, start dreaming big.