Everyone thinks they know exactly how the NHL Entry Draft results will shake out the second the lottery balls stop bouncing. We see a kid lighting up the OHL or tearing through the Swedish leagues and assume he’s a lock for 40 goals by age twenty. Honestly, it’s never that simple. The gap between a "can't-miss" prospect and a career AHLer is thinner than a puck, and history is littered with teams that thought they found a savior but ended up with a project that never quite panned out.
Look at the 2024 NHL Entry Draft at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Macklin Celebrini going first overall to San Jose was the easiest bet in the world. He’s got the pedigree. But look further down. Look at the trades. Look at the late-round fliers. That’s where the real story of the draft happens. It’s not just about who goes number one; it’s about the scouting departments that find a Brayden Point in the third round or a Kirill Kaprizov in the fifth.
The Chaos of Recent NHL Entry Draft Results
If you look back at the last few years, the draft has become increasingly volatile. Teams are no longer just drafting for the highest ceiling; they are drafting for specific organizational needs, often ignoring the "Best Player Available" (BPA) mantra that scouts used to treat like gospel.
Take the Montreal Canadiens’ decision to pass on Shane Wright for Juraj Slafkovský in 2022. At the time, social media went into a complete meltdown. Wright had been the consensus number one for years. He was the safe bet. Montreal saw something else—size, a specific kind of motor, and a ceiling they felt was higher. Fast forward a couple of seasons, and while Slafkovský had a slow start, he’s blossomed into a top-line force, while Wright has had to grind for every minute of ice time in the Seattle Kraken organization.
It’s a gamble. Every single pick is a coin flip weighted by a million dollars' worth of data.
Scouting in the Age of Analytics
We used to rely on "the eye test." An old scout in a wool coat sitting in a freezing rink in Moose Jaw with a notebook. Now? It’s all about Corsi, Fenwick, and micro-stats that track how many times a kid successfully enters the zone under pressure.
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But analytics can be deceiving when you're looking at seventeen-year-olds. Their bodies haven't finished growing. Some kids are manhandled in the corners but have the hockey IQ of a ten-year veteran. Others are physical freaks who dominate because they hit puberty at thirteen, only to find out that everyone else catches up to them by the time they hit the pros.
The NHL Entry Draft results often reflect this developmental "noise." A team like the Detroit Red Wings under Steve Yzerman has become famous for "off-the-board" picks. They took Moritz Seider at sixth overall in 2019 when most mock drafts had him in the teens. People laughed. Then Seider won the Calder Trophy. Yzerman basically told the hockey world that the public consensus doesn't mean a thing compared to internal scouting.
The Myth of the "Safe" Pick
There is no such thing as a safe pick. Even a generational talent like Connor McDavid or Connor Bedard comes with the massive weight of expectation that can crush a franchise if the surrounding pieces aren't right.
The Buffalo Sabres have had high draft picks for a decade. Their NHL Entry Draft results look like a dream on paper—Dahlin, Power, Quinn. Yet, the playoffs remained a distant memory for years. It proves that you can win the draft and still lose the season. Drafting the player is only 20% of the battle; the other 80% is development, coaching, and making sure you don't ruin their confidence by throwing them into the fire too early.
Why Teams Trade Down
You see it every year. A team is on the clock, and suddenly the trade alert pops up. Usually, a GM realizes that the three players they have ranked similarly are all going to be available five spots later.
By trading down, they pick up an extra second-rounder. In the long run, having two swings at the plate in the top fifty is often better than one swing at number fifteen. The math says the "bust rate" for mid-first-rounders is surprisingly high. If you can get two chances to hit a middle-six forward instead of one chance at a potential star who might never make it, many GMs will take the volume play.
Small Markets vs. Big Markets
The draft is the only way small-market teams like Columbus, Winnipeg, or Ottawa can truly compete. They aren't landing the massive unrestricted free agents (UFAs) in July. Nobody is choosing to go to Winnipeg for the weather. They have to build through the draft.
This creates a different kind of pressure. If the New York Rangers miss on a first-round pick, they can go out and sign an Artemi Panarin to fix the hole. If the Winnipeg Jets miss on a first-round pick, it sets the franchise back five years. You see this reflected in how these teams approach their NHL Entry Draft results. Small-market teams tend to be more conservative, prioritizing "high-floor" players who are guaranteed to play in the NHL, even if they aren't superstars.
The Russian Factor
We have to talk about the "Russian Factor." It’s a real thing that GMs discuss behind closed doors. With the current geopolitical climate and the lack of a formal transfer agreement between the NHL and the KHL, drafting a Russian prospect is a high-risk, high-reward move.
Matvei Michkov is the perfect example. Skill-wise, he was arguably the second-best player in his draft class. But he fell to the Philadelphia Flyers at seventh. Why? Because of his KHL contract and the uncertainty of when—or if—he’d ever come to North America. The Flyers took the swing. Other teams were too scared of the empty-handed scenario. This kind of drama makes the draft results unpredictable in a way that the NFL or NBA drafts just aren't.
Late Round Gems and Why They Happen
How does a guy like Joe Pavelski go in the seventh round? Or Henrik Lundqvist in the seventh?
Sometimes, players are just "late bloomers." They might be small. In the early 2000s, if you were under 6'0", you were almost invisible to scouts. The game has changed now, and speed is king, but size bias still exists. Teams still fall in love with "heavy" players who can't skate, and they let the small, shifty playmakers slide.
Also, some kids are just bad at testing. They don't look good at the Scouting Combine. They can't do a pull-up to save their lives (remember Sam Bennett?). But then you put them on the ice, and they are the most competitive person in the building. NHL Entry Draft results often overlook the "dog" in a player because it's hard to quantify on a spreadsheet.
The Goalie Problem
Drafting goalies is basically witchcraft. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
A goalie can look like the next Patrick Roy in the OHL and then completely fall apart when they face pro-level shooters who can pick corners from the blue line. Most teams have stopped drafting goalies in the first round entirely. The value just isn't there. You’re better off taking a flyer in the fourth round and hoping your goalie coach can work some magic. For every Carey Price (5th overall), there are ten guys like Pekka Rinne (258th overall) or Connor Hellebuyck (130th overall).
How to Evaluate Draft Success
You can't grade a draft the day it happens. You can't even grade it two years later. You need at least five years to see the NHL Entry Draft results clearly.
A "good" draft for a team is generally considered to be two players who play more than 200 NHL games. That sounds like a low bar, right? It’s not. Many teams come away with zero. If you get a star and a depth piece, you’ve had a massive win.
- Check the GP (Games Played): If a draft class hasn't hit the 100-game mark collectively after four years, the scouting department needs an overhaul.
- Value vs. Position: Did you take a third-line grinder at 10th overall? That’s a fail, even if he plays 800 games. You need elite talent in the top ten.
- Draft Capital Management: Did the team trade away picks for rentals? Looking at the results of teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning is fascinating because they rarely have first-rounders, yet they keep finding contributors in the middle rounds to stay competitive.
Actionable Steps for Following the Draft
If you want to actually understand what’s happening during the next cycle, stop looking at mock drafts three days before the event. Start earlier.
Follow independent scouts like Kyle Bukauskas or the crew at EliteProspects. They aren't beholden to team PR. Look at the "Transition Stats"—how well does a kid move the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone? That's the most transferable skill to the modern NHL.
Also, keep an eye on the "Overagers." These are players who were passed over in their first year of eligibility but dominated their league the following year. They are often more mature and closer to being NHL-ready than the seventeen-year-olds everyone is drooling over. Tanner Pearson and Andrew Mangiapane were overagers. They turned out just fine.
The NHL Entry Draft results are a snapshot in time of a team's hopes and fears. Some GMs draft to save their jobs, looking for a quick fix. Others draft for a window that is five years away. Understanding which one your team is doing will save you a lot of heartbreak when they pass on the flashy winger for a steady defenseman.
Check the rosters of the Stanley Cup finalists. You'll see a mix of high-pedigree top picks and absolute draft-floor bargains. That's the secret sauce. You need both. If your team only has one, they aren't winning anything anytime soon. Keep an eye on the kids playing in the NCAA and Europe; the "non-traditional" paths are becoming the new gold mines for NHL talent.
The draft is a long game. Don't get too high on a "A+" draft grade in June. Real life starts in October, and for most of these kids, the real test is three years down the road in a sweaty training camp where nobody cares where they were picked.