Look, let’s be real for a second. Every year around this time, the "experts" start hyping up the next draft class like it’s the second coming of the 1979 haul. But honestly? The 2025 cycle is weird. It’s not the 2024 Macklin Celebrini sweepstakes where the #1 spot felt locked in from the jump.
If you’ve been following the nhl draft 2025 mock draft chatter lately, you’ve probably noticed the vibe is shifting. We’re moving away from the "James Hagens or bust" narrative and into a much more chaotic reality. Scouts are basically tearing their hair out trying to figure out if they should value a high-ceiling defenseman who barely played or a center who put up numbers that would make Patrick Kane blush.
It’s messy. It’s loud. And frankly, it’s exactly why this draft is going to be a blast.
The Matthew Schaefer Gamble: Why the Islanders Jumped at #1
The 2025 Draft Lottery handed the New York Islanders the first overall pick despite them having only a 3.5% chance. Most people thought they’d play it safe. They didn't. They went with Matthew Schaefer.
Schaefer is the ultimate "projection" pick. He only played 17 regular-season games for the Erie Otters this year. Between a nasty bout of mono and a broken clavicle at the World Juniors, the kid spent more time in the press box than on the ice. Yet, every single mock draft you see has him at or near the top. Why?
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- The Mobility: He is, without question, the best skater in the class. It’s not just speed; it’s the four-way agility. He closes gaps before forwards even realize they’re in trouble.
- The IQ: Even in those limited 17 games, he put up 22 points. That’s a 1.29 points-per-game pace as a defenseman.
- The Frame: At 6-foot-2, he has the size that NHL GMs drool over.
People compare him to a blend of Noah Dobson’s offensive instincts and Miro Heiskanen’s efficiency. If he stays healthy, the Islanders just landed a franchise cornerstone. If those injuries linger? Well, that’s where the "mock" part of mock drafts gets scary.
Michael Misa and the "Exceptional Status" Weight
Then there’s Michael Misa. He went #2 to San Jose, and honestly, the Sharks might have gotten the better player for right now.
Misa carried the "Exceptional Status" tag into the OHL, which is basically a giant target on your back. He didn't just meet expectations this year; he nuked them. He led the entire CHL in scoring with 134 points. He’s the first Saginaw Spirit player to ever do that.
What's wild is how he changed his game. He moved from left wing to center and didn't miss a beat. He tied John Tavares for the most points by an under-18 OHL player since 2000. Think about that. San Jose now has Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, and Michael Misa down the middle. That’s basically a cheat code for a rebuild.
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Why Isn't Misa Consensus #1?
It comes down to "NHL ceiling." Some scouts worry Misa is a "maxed-out" prospect—someone who is dominant in junior because he’s smarter and more polished, but might not have that extra gear of elite athleticism that Schaefer or James Hagens possesses. I think that's overthinking it. You don't stumble into 62 goals by accident.
The Top 10 Breakdown: Where the Value Lies
If we look at how the board is actually shaking out, the talent drop-off after the top seven is significant. Here is how the high-end of the nhl draft 2025 mock draft looks in practice:
- New York Islanders: Matthew Schaefer (D, Erie): The elite transition monster.
- San Jose Sharks: Michael Misa (C, Saginaw): The statistical juggernaut.
- Chicago Blackhawks: Anton Frondell (C, Djurgårdens): A powerhouse Swede. He’s 6-foot-1, 205 lbs, and plays like a tank. Chicago is clearly building a "hard to play against" identity around Bedard.
- Utah Mammoth: Caleb Desnoyers (C, Moncton): A 200-foot center who won the QMJHL Playoff MVP. He’s the "pro's pro" of this draft.
- Nashville Predators: Brady Martin (C, Soo Greyhounds): Pure grit and high-end skill. Think a more offensive-minded version of Bo Horvat.
- Philadelphia Flyers: Porter Martone (RW, Brampton): He’s 6-foot-3 and put up 98 points. The Flyers love big, mean wingers, and Martone fits the Broad Street Bullies vibe perfectly, even if his skating is just "okay."
- Boston Bruins: James Hagens (C, Boston College): The faller. Early in the year, he was the locked-in #1. He’s a dynamic playmaker, but teams at the top seemed to favor size and defensive impact this cycle.
The Goalies: Why Joshua Ravensbergen is a First Rounder
Let’s talk about the mask-wearers. Usually, taking a goalie in the first round is a great way for a GM to get fired. But Joshua Ravensbergen is different.
He’s been a wall for the Prince George Cougars. In a draft that lacks "sure thing" superstars, a 6-foot-5 goalie with elite lateral movement starts looking like a very safe bet. Most mocks have him going in the late 20s—San Jose at #30 or Calgary at #32 are popular spots. If your team needs a successor to an aging vet, Ravensbergen is the only goalie in this class worth the "reach."
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What Most Mock Drafts Get Wrong
The biggest mistake I see in every nhl draft 2025 mock draft is ignoring the "European Risers."
Everyone focuses on the OHL and USHL because the highlights are easier to find on Twitter. But keep an eye on Victor Eklund. He’s been tearing up the HockeyAllsvenskan (Sweden’s second tier). He’s got that "dog" in him—relentless on the forecheck and has a wicked release. He’s likely going to jump into the top 15 by the time the actual draft starts in Los Angeles.
Also, don't sleep on the defensemen after Schaefer. Radim Mrtka is 6-foot-6 and can actually move. In a league that just saw the Florida Panthers win a Cup with a massive, mobile D-core, guys like Mrtka and Jackson Smith (Tri-City) are going to go much higher than people think.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Dynasty Managers
If you’re trying to make sense of all this for your fantasy league or just to impress your buddies at the bar, here’s what you actually need to know:
- Target the "Fallers": If James Hagens slips to your team at 5 or 6, it’s a massive win. His playmaking floor is incredibly high.
- Watch the "Big D" Trend: Teams are over-valuing size this year. If a team reaches for a 6-foot-4 defenseman with 15 points over a skilled winger with 70, don't be surprised. It's the "Vegas/Florida effect."
- The 2026 Factor: Honestly? A lot of GMs are looking at the 2026 class (Gavin McKenna territory) and might be willing to trade down out of this first round to stockpile assets for next year.
The 2025 NHL Draft isn't about finding the next McDavid. It’s about finding the elite "supporting cast" that wins championships. Whether it's Schaefer's skating or Misa's brain, the teams that win this draft will be the ones that didn't overthink the small samples.
Keep a close eye on the late-season international tournaments. The U18 Worlds usually flip the top 10 on its head, and with guys like Frondell and Eklund playing for Sweden, we could see a lot of movement before the names are called in June.