The dust has finally settled on the Granite State, but if you're just looking at the top-line numbers, you’re kinda missing the real story. New Hampshire has this reputation for being "swingy" and unpredictable, and honestly, the nh presidential election results from 2024 proved that both everything and nothing has changed in the Northeast.
You’ve probably heard that Kamala Harris took the state’s four electoral votes. That’s true. She ended up with 418,488 votes, which is about 50.9% of the total. Donald Trump pulled in 395,523 votes, landing him at 48.1%. On paper, a 2.8% gap looks like a standard Democratic win for a state that hasn't gone red since 2000. But look closer. This was actually Harris’ narrowest victory in any state she won. In a year where Trump flipped the Blue Wall, New Hampshire almost became the "one that got away" for the Democrats.
Why the nh presidential election results were closer than expected
Most pundits expected a blowout. Joe Biden won here by seven points in 2020. Seeing that margin shrink to less than three points is a massive shift. Basically, the "red wave" that people kept talking about didn't quite crash over the White Mountains, but it definitely eroded the shore.
If you look at the town-by-town data, the divide is stark. You have the "college towns" and the coastal cities like Portsmouth and Durham—where Harris absolutely crushed it with 70% and 72% of the vote respectively—acting as a firewall. Then you have places like Pelham, where Trump secured 62.2% of the vote. It's a tale of two states. The rural-urban divide isn't just a catchy phrase; it's the literal architecture of the New Hampshire political landscape.
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The Primary Precursor
We can't talk about the general election without looking at the primary back in January. It was weird. It was chaotic. And it set the stage for everything.
- The Democratic Write-In: Joe Biden wasn't even on the ballot because of a feud between the DNC and New Hampshire over the "First-in-the-Nation" status. Supporters had to literally write his name in. He still won with 63.8% (79,100 votes), but Dean Phillips grabbed nearly 20%. That was an early signal of some "meh" energy within the party.
- Trump’s Record Breaking Turnout: On the GOP side, Trump didn't just win; he shattered records. Nearly 330,000 people showed up for the Republican primary. Trump took 176,391 of those votes.
- The Nikki Haley Factor: Haley was the last woman standing against Trump. She pulled 43.3% of the GOP primary vote, largely fueled by undeclared voters. The fact that she won 73% of self-described moderates in the primary was a huge red flag for the Trump campaign that they later had to address in the general election.
Voter Turnout: A New High Water Mark
New Hampshire residents take voting seriously. Like, really seriously. We saw a record-breaking 834,651 ballots cast in the general election. That beats the 2020 record by about 20,000 votes. When more than 76% of your eligible population shows up, the nh presidential election results become a very accurate mirror of the people’s mood.
The Surprise in the South
The southern border of the state, particularly the towns that bleed into the Boston suburbs, usually leans blue or at least moderate. This time, places like Salem and Derry went hard for Trump. Salem gave him 59%. Derry gave him 55.5%.
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Why? It’s mostly about the economy. New Hampshire doesn't have a sales or income tax, so people there are hyper-sensitive to federal policy and inflation. Trump’s message on the "cost of living" hit differently in the suburbs than it did in the academic halls of Hanover (where Harris won 85% of the vote).
Third Party Impact
Usually, third-party candidates are just a footnote. In 2024, they were almost invisible, but in a race decided by 2.8%, every bit counts. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green) combined for about 1% of the vote. In a world where 23,000 votes separate the winner and the loser, those small percentages keep campaign managers awake at night.
What this means for the future of NH politics
New Hampshire isn't a "safe" blue state anymore. It’s "blue-ish." If the GOP can find a way to maintain the rural enthusiasm while clawing back just 5% of the suburban "Haley voters," the 2028 nh presidential election results could look very different.
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The biggest takeaway for anyone following this is that the "independent" voter in New Hampshire is king. With nearly 40% of the state registered as undeclared, you can't rely on party loyalty. You have to actually show up. Trump did better than expected because he energized a base that feels ignored by the "Gold Coast" elites. Harris won because the Democratic machine in the cities is incredibly efficient at getting the vote out.
Actionable Insights for the Next Cycle
If you’re a political junkie or just a curious resident, here’s how to read the tea leaves for the next few years:
- Watch the Townships: Forget the county-wide maps. Watch the townships like Merrimack and Bedford. These are the true "bellwethers." Harris won Bedford by just 3% (51.1% to 47.9%). If that flips, the state flips.
- The "Sununu" Effect: Outgoing Governor Chris Sununu (who didn't run for re-election) has always been a bridge for moderates. With Kelly Ayotte winning the Governor's seat with 53.7% of the vote, there's a clear appetite for Republican leadership at the state level that hasn't fully translated to the Presidential level yet.
- Primary Reform: Expect the Democratic party to spend the next two years trying to fix the primary calendar mess. They can't afford another "write-in" debacle that leaves voters feeling disenfranchised.
The reality of the nh presidential election results is that the state is more divided than it has been in decades. It’s a purple state wearing a blue coat, and that coat is getting thinner every year.
Next Steps for You: To get a deeper feel for how your specific neighborhood voted, you should check the official New Hampshire Secretary of State website for the "Statement of the Vote" PDF. It breaks down every single town and ward. If you're interested in the "why" behind the shift, looking at the exit poll data from the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center provides a great breakdown of how different age groups and education levels moved since 2020.