It is mid-January, and if you haven’t looked at the bracket in the last 48 hours, honestly, everything has changed. Wild Card weekend just wrapped up, and it was a total bloodbath for the "old guard." We saw legends like Aaron Rodgers potentially play their final snaps, while a new crop of quarterbacks—Caleb Williams and Bo Nix among them—have effectively taken over the conversation about nfl who is making the playoffs.
Usually, the playoffs feel like a slow burn. Not this year. The 2025-26 postseason has been a sprint through a minefield.
The Remaining Field: Who Survived Wild Card Weekend?
Right now, we are down to the "Elite Eight." Eight teams are still breathing, and the rest are already booking tee times in Cabo. The hierarchy is basically split between the heavy hitters who earned a bye and the gritty wild-card teams that just went on the road and pulled off upsets.
In the AFC, it’s a collision course of efficiency. The Denver Broncos (14-3) and New England Patriots (14-3) spent the weekend watching from their couches. They were the class of the conference all year. But the teams coming to visit them aren't exactly "easy outs."
The Houston Texans (12-5) looked absolutely terrifying on Monday night. They didn't just beat the Pittsburgh Steelers; they dismantled them 30-6. C.J. Stroud is playing with a level of poise that makes you forget he’s still so young, and that defense just scored two touchdowns on its own. They have won ten straight games.
Then you have the Buffalo Bills (12-5). They went into Jacksonville and escaped with a 27-24 win. Josh Allen is doing Josh Allen things—running over linebackers and throwing darts into windows the size of a mailbox.
Over in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks (14-3) are the team to beat. Mike Macdonald has that defense playing like the Legion of Boom 2.0. They held San Francisco to three points in their regular-season finale, which is just insane.
The Chicago Bears (11-6) are the surprise of the year for many. Caleb Williams led a massive comeback against Green Bay to win 31-27. Seeing the Bears as a No. 2 seed feels weird, doesn't it? But they're legit.
Rounding out the NFC are the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) and the San Francisco 49ers (12-5). Both won physical, ugly games on the road. The 49ers knocked out the defending champ Eagles, 23-19. No repeat winner this year.
The Divisional Round Matchups
- AFC: Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (Saturday, Jan 17)
- NFC: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Saturday, Jan 17)
- AFC: Houston Texans at New England Patriots (Sunday, Jan 18)
- NFC: Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (Sunday, Jan 18)
Why the "Better Record" Myth is Real
There is a huge misconception every year about nfl who is making the playoffs and how they’ll perform once they get there. We always assume the home team with the higher seed has this massive advantage.
Look at the Wild Card round we just finished. The Rams (12-5) were the "underdog" seed traveling to Carolina (8-9). Of course, the Rams won. The Texans (12-5) had to go to Pittsburgh (10-7) because the Steelers won their division. The Texans won by 24 points.
Records don't always tell the story, but this year, the wild-card teams are actually statistically better than some of the division winners they faced. It’s a quirk of the seeding system that had fans and owners grumbling all week. If you’re a 12-win team playing on the road against an 8-win team, you’re probably going to feel a little slighted.
The Quarterback Changing of the Guard
If you look at the names left on the list, the era of the "Big Three" or "Big Four" is officially over. No Mahomes. No Rodgers. No Dak.
Instead, we have Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye leading high-seeded teams. It’s a rookie and sophomore showcase. Drake Maye has the Patriots at 14-3, playing mistake-free football and letting that New England defense suffocate people.
People keep waiting for these young guys to "hit the wall."
They haven't.
In fact, Caleb Williams looked more comfortable in the fourth quarter against the Packers than he did in September. He threw two touchdowns in the final seven minutes. That’s not a "rookie" performance. That’s a franchise-altering performance.
What to Watch For in the Divisional Round
The altitude in Denver is going to be a massive factor for Buffalo. The Bills just played a humid, physical game in Florida and now they have to fly to Colorado on a short week to face a rested Broncos team.
Denver is 8-1 at home. Bo Nix doesn't turn the ball over.
On the other side, the 49ers vs. Seahawks game is basically a civil war. These teams know each other's laundry. San Francisco’s defense is the only unit that matches up well with Seattle’s speed, but playing at Lumen Field in January is a nightmare.
Actionable Next Steps for Fans:
👉 See also: Dolphins and Bills Score: Why This Rivalry Keeps Flipping the Script
- Check the Injury Reports: Watch New England’s defensive front; if Milton Williams or Will Campbell are limited, the Texans' run game could exploit them.
- Monitor the Weather: Soldier Field for Rams-Bears could be a "snow globe" game, which heavily favors the Bears' ground attack over Stafford's passing.
- Update Your Brackets: The "re-seeding" is done. The lowest remaining seed always travels to the highest remaining seed.
The road to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara is narrowing. It’s no longer about who can make it; it’s about who can survive one more weekend of physical, high-altitude, or freezing-cold football.