The NFL mid-season grind is officially here. It’s that weird stretch where "any given Sunday" stops being a cliché and starts being a bankroll killer. If you’ve been following the 2025 season, you already know the script has been flipped. Heavy favorites are stumbling, and backup quarterbacks are playing like they’ve got something to prove.
Finding the right week seven nfl picks isn't just about looking at the standings anymore. It’s about navigating an injury report that looks more like a hospital census. We have teams like the Jets sitting at 0-6 while "bridge" quarterbacks are keeping squads like the Vikings and Giants surprisingly competitive.
Let’s get into the weeds of this slate.
The London Hangover and the Wembley Trap
The international series wraps up its London stint this week with the Los Angeles Rams facing the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium. Most people look at the travel and assume the "home" team in London has an edge.
Honestly? It’s usually a mess.
The Rams are favorites here, but they’re likely doing it without Puka Nacua, who has been sidelined with an ankle issue. When Nacua is out, Matthew Stafford’s options get thin fast. On the flip side, the Jaguars have basically become London's adopted team. They’ve played there enough to know the routine. While the Rams are dealing with the jet lag of a West Coast flight, the Jags are already settled.
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The total for this game is sitting around 44.5. With two defenses that have actually played decent ball lately—both ranking in the top five for opponent EPA (Expected Points Added) per play—the Under feels like the smart move. International games are notorious for sluggish starts and sloppy red-zone trips.
Why the Divisional Rivalries Feel Different This Week
Thursday night kicked things off with a classic AFC North scrap between the Steelers and the Bengals. Mike Tomlin has the Steelers sitting at 4-1, but they’ve been living on the edge.
Statistically, Pittsburgh has been incredibly lucky. They’ve recovered about 83% of all fumbles this season. That’s not sustainable. Eventually, the ball bounces the other way. The Bengals, even with Joe Flacco under center while Joe Burrow deals with his own recovery, have stayed feisty. Taking Cincinnati +5.5 at home was a popular play for those who think the Steelers' luck is about to run out.
The NFC East Clash: Commanders vs. Cowboys
The Cowboys are hosting the Commanders in a game that has "trap" written all over it. Dallas is a slight home underdog (+1.5), which tells you everything you need to know about how the Vegas oddsmakers view Mike McCarthy’s squad right now.
Washington is missing big pieces. Terry McLaurin (quad) and Deebo Samuel (heel) are both out. You’d think that would make Dallas a lock. But the Cowboys have their own issues, specifically a defense that can't seem to stop a nosebleed in the second half. This game has the highest total of the week at 54.5. Expect a shootout where defense is optional.
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Betting Against the Bottom: Titans and Jets
If you’re looking for the most depressing game on the schedule, look no further than the New York Jets vs. the Carolina Panthers. The Jets are winless. Their chemistry is non-existent. Justin Fields is averaging a meager 159 passing yards per game, and there’s already talk of Tyrod Taylor taking over if things go south early.
Carolina isn't exactly a powerhouse, but they’re no longer the league’s punching bag. They actually outrank the Jets in DVOA and Net Yards per Play. Taking the Panthers as a pick'em or slight favorite isn't just a bet on Carolina; it's a bet against the absolute chaos happening in the Jets' locker room.
Similarly, the New England Patriots are heavy 7-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans recently moved on from Brian Callahan, and while the "interim coach bump" is a real phenomenon, it’s hard to see it happening here. Drake Maye has been playing at an MVP level for New England. Tennessee is currently dead last in the league in EPA per play. It’s a mismatch on paper and likely on the field too.
The Monday Night Doubleheader Chaos
We get two games again this Monday, and they couldn’t be more different.
First, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Detroit to take on the Lions. This is a 5-1 Bucs team vs. a 4-2 Lions team. Baker Mayfield has been playing "barnstorming" football, but he’s doing it with a depleted receiving corps. Mike Evans is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury, and Chris Godwin is already out with a fibula fracture.
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Jared Goff, meanwhile, is absolute money at Ford Field. He leads the league in completion percentage (75.9%) and has a 137.1 passer rating against the blitz. Since the Bucs love to blitz under Todd Bowles, Goff is likely going to carve them up.
The second game features the Houston Texans at the Seattle Seahawks. This one comes down to one matchup: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Derek Stingley Jr.
JSN has been the entire Seahawks offense lately, accounting for nearly 45% of their team's air yards. But Derek Stingley Jr. is a first-team All-Pro corner who holds opposing QBs to a 51.6 passer rating. If Stingley can erase JSN, Seattle has no Plan B. Houston +3.5 as a road underdog feels like the sharp play here.
Making Sense of the Week Seven NFL Picks
When you’re finalizing your week seven nfl picks, you have to look past the record.
Look at the Vikings. They’re 1.5-point underdogs at home against the Eagles, yet Minnesota is coming off a bye and getting healthy. The Eagles have lost two straight and their offense is ranked 28th in yards per play. This is a classic "perception vs. reality" game where the public still thinks the Eagles are the 2023 version of themselves.
Actionable Betting Insights
- Fade the Steelers' Fumble Luck: Pittsburgh is due for a regression. If you can still get a division rival at +5 or more against them, take it.
- The "Under" in London: Stick to the trend. Travel, time zones, and elite defenses (Rams/Jags) usually lead to low-scoring affairs.
- Target the Titans' Collapse: Until Tennessee shows they can move the ball, laying points with their opponents (New England) is the most consistent strategy in the AFC.
- Watch the Goff-Blitz Splits: If you’re betting the Lions, check the defensive pressure rates. Goff thrives when he knows where the pressure is coming from.
Stay disciplined with your bankroll. This week is about identifying which "bad" teams are actually improving and which "good" teams are just lucky.
Next Steps for Your Strategy
- Check the final inactive list for the 4:25 PM ET games, specifically the status of CeeDee Lamb and Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Monitor the weather in Cleveland; heavy winds are expected, which could crater the passing yards for Dillon Gabriel and the Dolphins.
- Review the Saturday night injury updates for the Monday Night Football doubleheader to see if Mike Evans officially clears protocol.