Everyone thinks they have the NFL figured out by November. You’ve looked at the standings. You’ve seen the highlights. But then Sunday hits, and your nfl week 9 pick em sheet looks like a disaster zone because a backup tackle got beat once or a kicker caught a case of the yips. Honestly, Week 9 is the ultimate "prove it" week. It’s where the pretenders start to fade into the background, and the real contenders show their teeth.
Looking at the 2025 slate, it was a weird one.
The Heavyweights and the Heartbreak
The game everyone circled was the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. These two teams have been the kings of the AFC for what feels like a decade. Going into that game, the Chiefs were slight favorites, around -1.5 or -2.5 depending on when you locked in your picks. Most casual players just took Patrick Mahomes because, well, he’s Mahomes. But if you were paying attention to the regular season trends, the Bills had actually taken the last four regular-season meetings.
Buffalo kept that streak alive with a 28-21 win. It wasn't just about Josh Allen being a superhero, either. The Chiefs' offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor went down with an ankle injury, and that changed everything for their protection. If you didn't account for the trench battle, you lost that pick.
Then you had the Ravens. They kicked things off on Thursday Night against the Dolphins. Baltimore was a massive 7.5-point favorite. Most pick em players slammed the Ravens without thinking twice. It made sense; Lamar Jackson was returning, and the Dolphins' defense has been hit or miss. The final was 28-6. A total blowout. But here is the thing: the "Under" hit easily. In a confidence pool, this was a 10-point lock for most, and it actually paid off for once.
Don't Fall for the Home Dog Trap
Cincinnati hosted the Chicago Bears, and the line was all over the place. Some books had the Bears as 3-point favorites on the road. That feels wrong, right? A rookie-led Chicago team going into Paycor Stadium? But the Bengals were a mess. They had just melted down against the Jets the week prior.
- Bengals' Defense: They were giving up over 180 rushing yards a game.
- Bears' Strategy: Ben Johnson leaned into the run game, and it worked.
- Final Score: Chicago 27, Cincinnati 25.
If you picked the Bengals just because they were at home, you got burned. The "get-right" game for Cincinnati never happened because their secondary was too banged up to handle the pressure.
Navigating the Week 9 Minefield
Let’s talk about the Green Bay Packers. They were 13.5-point favorites against the Carolina Panthers. In any nfl week 9 pick em contest, this is your "free square." You put your highest confidence points here and move on.
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Except the Panthers actually kept it close for three quarters. The final was 16-13, a shocking result that saw Carolina actually win the game straight up according to some scoreboards, or at least cover the massive spread. The Packers' offense looked stagnant. Tucker Kraft, their star tight end, suffered a serious knee injury during the game, and the vibe at Lambeau shifted instantly. It’s a reminder that even the "sure things" aren't sure.
Survival and Strategy
If you're playing in a straight-up pick em, you probably survived the Packers' scare, but if you’re in a point spread league, that game was a nightmare. Here's a look at how some of the other favorites fared:
The Detroit Lions were 8.5-point favorites over the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions are just a different beast at Ford Field. They covered easily with a 33-16 win. J.J. McCarthy was back for the Vikings, but he looked like a rookie against that Detroit pass rush. He threw three picks in the first three quarters. If you stayed away from the Vikings' "uplift" narrative, you stayed in the green.
The Rams absolutely demolished the Saints, 34-10. New Orleans has been in a freefall, and L.A. is finally healthy. When you see a spread like -14, it usually screams "stay away," but the Saints offered zero resistance.
What Really Matters in the Second Half of the Season
By Week 9, injuries are the only thing that should dictate your picks. Forget the logos on the helmets.
Look at the Washington Commanders vs. the Seattle Seahawks. This was a Sunday Night Football game that many expected to be a shootout. But Jayden Daniels, the Commanders' spark plug, went down with a left arm injury late in the game. Seattle won 38-14. If you didn't have a contingency for a mid-game injury, or if you ignored the fact that Seattle was 3-0 on the road leading into that game, you probably picked the home team and regretted it by halftime.
Expert Nuance vs. Public Perception
Most people pick based on who they want to win. Don't do that.
The Dallas Cowboys hosted the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night. The Cowboys' defense was statistically one of the worst in the league, ranking 31st in points allowed. Yet, they were 3-point favorites. Why? Because they score 40 points a game at home. It was a classic "strength vs. weakness" matchup. Kyler Murray returned for Arizona and put up 27 points, leading the Cardinals to a 27-17 upset.
The public loved Dallas. The experts saw a "sieve" defense and a returning dual-threat QB and took the points.
Actionable Steps for Your Next Pick Em
To actually win your pool, you have to stop following the herd. Here is how you should approach the next slate:
- Check the Trench Report: If a team is missing a starting Left Tackle (like the Chiefs were) or a key Interior Defensive Lineman, fade them. Passing stats are flashy, but line play wins in November.
- Ignore the "Home Field" Myth: Home field advantage isn't what it used to be. In Week 9, several road teams (Arizona, Seattle, Chicago) either won or kept it much closer than the Vegas line suggested.
- Monitor the "Mini-Bye": Teams coming off a Thursday night game or a bye week (like the Raiders and Jaguars) often have a massive edge in preparation. Use that to break ties in your head.
- Confidence Points Strategy: Never put your top 3 confidence picks on divisional games. They are too unpredictable. Save those for the non-conference blowouts where the talent gap is undeniable.
You've got to be cold-blooded with these selections. The moment you start picking with your heart is the moment you fall to the bottom of the leaderboard. Look at the injury reports on Friday afternoon before you finalize anything. A "Questionable" tag for a star receiver might not seem like much, but in a game decided by three points, it's the difference between a win and a loss.