Vegas had a monster Sunday. Honestly, if you were betting favorites in late October, your bankroll probably took a massive hit. NFL week 8 picks against the spread 2024 turned out to be a graveyard for "safe" parlays and heavy public favorites. We saw double-digit underdogs win outright and a Hail Mary that quite literally shifted millions of dollars in the final second of a game.
It’s the kind of week that reminds you why the desert has all those shiny buildings.
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The Cleveland Shock: Jameis Winston and the 8-Point Upset
Most people looked at the Baltimore Ravens and saw a juggernaut. They had won five straight. Lamar Jackson was playing like a back-to-back MVP. On the other side? The Cleveland Browns were 1-6 and starting Jameis Winston after Deshaun Watson’s season ended. The Ravens opened as 10.5-point favorites and settled around -7.5 at kickoff.
Nobody told Jameis he was supposed to lose.
Winston threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns, including a go-ahead 38-yard strike to Cedric Tillman with under a minute left. The Browns won 29-24, winning outright as heavy underdogs. If you took the Ravens on the spread, you weren't just disappointed—you were shocked. Kyle Hamilton dropped a potential game-sealing interception, and that was that. Cleveland covered easily, and the "dog" barked loud.
The Hail Mary That Broke Chicago
Let’s talk about the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears. This was the battle of the top two rookie picks, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. For about 59 minutes, it was a defensive slog. Washington led 12-0, then 12-7. When Chicago scored to go up 15-12 with 25 seconds left, Bears bettors who had them at +1.5 or +2.5 were feeling like geniuses.
Then the miracle happened.
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Jayden Daniels scrambled for what felt like an eternity—about 12.8 seconds, to be exact—and launched a ball 52 yards into a crowd. Tyrique Stevenson, who was busy taunting the crowd before the snap, tipped the ball right into the hands of Noah Brown. Washington won 18-15.
Because the Commanders were roughly 1.5-point favorites, that touchdown didn't just win the game; it covered the spread. It was a "bad beat" for the ages. One second you're cashing a ticket on a gritty road underdog win, and the next, a tipped ball turns your winner into a loss.
The Detroit Buzzsaw and the "Fake" Blowout
The Detroit Lions were 12.5-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans. Usually, when a spread is that high, bettors get nervous about a "backdoor cover"—that annoying moment when a bad team scores a meaningless touchdown late to lose by 10 instead of 14.
Not here.
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Detroit put up 52 points. The weird part? Jared Goff only threw for 85 yards. You'd think a team scoring 50+ would have a 400-yard passing day, but the Lions' special teams and defense were so dominant that the offense barely had to work. Kalif Raymond had a 90-yard punt return touchdown. The Titans turned it over four times. If you laid the points with Detroit, you were relaxed by the middle of the second quarter.
Why the Eagles Finally Looked Like Themselves
The Philadelphia Eagles traveled to Cincinnati as 2.5-point underdogs. The Bengals were supposed to be turning a corner, and Joe Burrow at home is usually a tough out. Instead, Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley absolutely gutted them.
The Eagles won 37-17.
They didn't just cover the +2.5; they blew the doors off the place. Philadelphia’s defense held the Bengals scoreless in the fourth quarter while Hurts ran for three scores. This game was a prime example of the "dogs" dominating the week. When you look at the NFL week 8 picks against the spread 2024, the trend was clear: road underdogs and divisional home dogs were the way to go.
Week 8 Betting Results at a Glance
- Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at Miami Dolphins: Cardinals win 28-27 (Cover)
- New England Patriots (+7) vs. NY Jets: Patriots win 25-22 (Cover)
- Buffalo Bills (-3) at Seattle Seahawks: Bills win 31-10 (Cover)
- Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Falcons win 31-26 (Cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) at Las Vegas Raiders: Chiefs win 27-20 (Raiders Cover)
The Jets losing outright to the Patriots as 7-point favorites was another massive blow to the public. New York was the "trendy" pick after acquiring Davante Adams, but they looked disjointed. Betting against the Jets became a profitable strategy in 2024, and Week 8 was the peak of that frustration.
Lessons from the Week 8 Chaos
If you want to survive the NFL betting season, you've gotta realize that "momentum" is often an illusion. The Ravens had all the momentum in the world, and they lost to a backup QB. The Bears had the game won, and they lost on a prayer.
- Stop chasing the "hot" team. Everyone wanted the Ravens because they looked unstoppable. In the NFL, "unstoppable" usually lasts about three weeks before a divisional rival humbles you.
- Respect the 7-point home dog. Both the Browns and the Patriots were home underdogs of a touchdown or more. Both won outright. In the NFL, the gap between the "best" and "worst" teams is much smaller than the betting lines suggest.
- Watch the injury reports, but don't overreact. Jayden Daniels was a "game-time decision" with a rib injury. People hammered the Bears' line thinking he’d be limited. He ended up throwing for 326 yards.
The 2024 season taught us that the NFC North was the strongest division in football, but even they weren't immune to the Week 8 weirdness. Whether it was the Lions covering a massive number or the Vikings failing to cover as favorites against the Rams on Thursday night (losing 30-20 as 2.5-point favorites), the favorites had a rough go.
Next time you're looking at a slate like this, look for the games where "everyone" agrees on a winner. That’s usually exactly where the upset is hiding.
Your Next Steps: Check the current injury reports for any lingering rib or soft-tissue issues that popped up during these Week 8 matchups before placing bets on next week's slate. Specifically, monitor the New York Jets' offensive line health, as their inability to protect the passer cost them dearly as favorites.