Getting your week 7 nfl picks sheet ready is usually where the season starts to feel real. By now, we aren't guessing. We know who is actually good and who just had a lucky September. But honestly, this specific slate is a complete mess for anyone trying to play it safe.
The "chalk" picks look too easy. That usually means a trap is waiting.
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We have a massive spread in Kansas City, a weird London game that could go either way, and two Monday night matchups that might break your pool before the week is over. If you're looking for the safe road, you won't find it here. You've gotta look at the injuries and the rest cycles.
The London Factor: Rams vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars are practically residents of Wembley Stadium at this point. They’re facing a Los Angeles Rams team that has been efficient but is currently sweating the health of Puka Nacua. If Nacua can't go, Matthew Stafford is basically throwing into a void against a Jacksonville defense that, while not elite, knows how to play in the UK humidity.
Sean McVay is 2-0 in London, but those were different rosters.
Jacksonville has flipped the script after a miserable 2024. Nate Landman and Jared Verse are playing like men possessed. Most people will see the Rams' 4-2 record and think it's a lock. Don't be that person. The Jags are +3 for a reason, and they might just win this straight up.
Why the Giants are the Sneaky Play in Denver
The Broncos are laying 7 points. Seven!
Denver just got back from London. If you've ever flown across eight time zones, you know that the "jet lag hangover" is a real thing for pro athletes. Meanwhile, the New York Giants have been sitting at home, resting up since their Thursday night win over the Eagles.
Jaxson Dart has been a revelation. He’s the third QB in the modern era to rush for 50+ yards in his first three starts. Pairing him with Cam Skattebo has given the Giants an actual identity. Denver’s defense is legit, especially with Nik Bonitto leading the league in sacks, but seven points is a massive cushion for an upstart Giants team with a massive rest advantage.
Sorting Through the Week 7 NFL Picks Sheet
If you’re filling out a confidence pool, you need to be careful where you put your high numbers.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders: This is the biggest spread on the week 7 nfl picks sheet. The Raiders have kept the last three meetings within one score. Still, Rashee Rice is back for KC, and the Raiders' defense is missing Maxx Crosby (knee). It’s a classic divisional "dog" spot, but the talent gap is widening.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are struggling. Joe Burrow's absence has exposed a bottom-tier offensive line. The Steelers are 4-1 and have had incredible "fumble luck," which usually regresses, but they should still handle a Bengals defense giving up 30 points a game.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings: The Eagles are 28th in yards per play. That is terrifying for a defending Super Bowl champ. The Vikings are coming off a bye and getting Blake Cashman back. If J.J. McCarthy plays, the Vikings are a live dog.
The Monday Night Doubleheader Chaos
The week ends with two games on Monday.
First, the Buccaneers visit the Lions. Detroit is a 5.5-point favorite, but they just lost safety Brian Branch to a suspension-worthy fight. Tampa Bay is 5-1, though losing Mike Evans to a broken collarbone is a gut-punch. Baker Mayfield is playing like an MVP candidate, so expect a shootout.
Then you have Houston at Seattle. The Texans are coming off a bye and rank 4th in defensive DVOA. Seattle is 3rd in offensive DVOA. It’s a "strength vs. strength" matchup. Most experts are leaning toward the Under 42 here because Houston’s pass rush (3rd in the league) is going to eat Sam Darnold alive.
Injury Reports That Actually Matter
You can't just look at the names; you have to look at the positions.
The Chargers are missing RT Trey Pipkins, and LT Joe Alt is doubtful. If you're picking the Chargers to cover -1.5 against the Colts, you're betting on Justin Herbert surviving without his bookend tackles. That’s a risky bet.
In Washington, Terry McLaurin is out. That takes the top off the Commanders' offense and makes the Cowboys' defense look a lot better than it actually is. Dallas is an enigma—they score 40 one week and disappear the next—but with McLaurin out, the Commanders might not have the firepower to keep up.
Actionable Strategy for Your Pool
- Take the Giants +7. The rest disparity between a team coming back from London and a team coming off a "mini-bye" is statistically significant.
- Avoid the Chiefs as a 10-point confidence pick. They’ll win, but they rarely blow out the Raiders.
- Trust the Under in Cleveland. Heavy winds are expected for Dolphins vs. Browns. With Tua and Dillon Gabriel both dealing with weather, this will be a ground-and-pound game.
- Lean toward the Bengals +5.5. Division games are usually ugly. Pittsburgh is due for some turnover regression.
Keep an eye on the Saturday injury updates. Specifically, check the status of Josh Jacobs in Green Bay. If he's out, that Green Bay -6.5 line against the Cardinals becomes a lot more dangerous. Arizona is 2-0 as a prime-time underdog this year.
Finalize your week 7 nfl picks sheet by prioritizing teams with health on the offensive line. In a season defined by defensive dominance, the teams that can actually protect their QB are the ones that cover.
Check the weather in Cleveland and Chicago before locking in your totals. High winds are the ultimate equalizer for bad offenses. If the flags are blowing hard, take the points and the under.