Week 6 in the NFL is usually where the "imposter" teams start to crumble. By now, the flukes of September are gone. We've seen enough film to know who’s actually good and who just got lucky with a soft schedule. Honestly, this is the week where the betting lines get sharp, and if you aren't looking at the injury reports or the weather blowing in from the coast, you're basically guessing.
Everyone is talking about the big names, but the real value is hiding in the games people are ignoring. Take a look at the chaos. We have a London game, a Nor'easter threatening the East Coast, and some massive spreads that look like traps. If you're looking for nfl week 6 nfl picks, you have to stop following the public hype and start looking at the matchups that actually favor the underdogs.
The London Trap: Broncos vs. Jets
The flight to London is a brutal seven-hour haul that messes with everyone's internal clock. This year, the Denver Broncos are heading across the pond to face a New York Jets team that looks like a rudderless ship. The Broncos opened as 7.5-point favorites, and frankly, it makes sense. Bo Nix finally started looking like a professional quarterback in the second half of his last outing, and the Jets’ tackling has been, well, optional.
But here’s the thing about London: weird stuff happens. The grass at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is different. The crowd is a mix of fans wearing jerseys from all 32 teams. I’m leaning toward the Broncos winning 26-14, but don't be shocked if the Jets hang around just because of the jet lag factor. Denver is the better team, especially with their defense starting to resemble the elite unit we expected, but seven points is a lot to lay in a different time zone.
Why the Ravens are in Trouble (Again)
If you're eyeing the Baltimore Ravens as one of your nfl week 6 nfl picks, you might want to check the training room first. Lamar Jackson is officially out with that hamstring injury. Cooper Rush is the guy now. That is a massive drop-off, even if Rush has been a "steady hand" in the past.
They’re facing a Los Angeles Rams team that is coming off a frustrating loss to the Niners. Matthew Stafford is probably licking his chops looking at a Ravens secondary that is currently missing Roquan Smith and Chidobe Awuzie. To make matters worse, there is a Nor'easter brewing. We’re talking heavy rain and gusts that could hit 30 mph in Baltimore.
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In a sloppy, windy game, you usually want the better run game. But with Lamar out, the Ravens lose their primary rushing threat. I’m taking the Rams -7.5 here. They have the more experienced QB for these conditions, and Puka Nacua is basically a vacuum in the rain. Expect a score somewhere around 31-17 for Los Angeles.
The Massive Spread: Bengals at Packers
The line for this game is sitting at Packers -14.5. That is the biggest spread of the 2025 season so far.
Is Cincinnati really that bad? Probably. They've been a disaster against the spread (1-4 ATS) and Joe Flacco—bless his heart—is prone to those "what was he thinking?" interceptions. Green Bay at Lambeau is a nightmare for a struggling team. However, 14.5 points is a lot of points in the NFL.
I think the Packers win easily, but a back-door cover by the Bengals is always on the table when you’re giving up two touchdowns. I’d stay away from the spread and look at the Under (44.5). The weather in Green Bay is looking "mild with showers," which usually leads to a lot of running and a clock that doesn't stop.
Smart Plays for the Rest of the Slate
- Cardinals at Colts: Indianapolis is favored by about 6.5 to 8.5 depending on where you shop. Kyler Murray is "questionable" with a foot injury, which usually means he won't be scrambling as much. Without that rushing upside, Arizona's offense is one-dimensional. The Colts just dropped 40 on the Raiders. I like the Colts 27-24, but it’s closer than the line suggests.
- Cowboys at Panthers: No CeeDee Lamb for Dallas. That’s a huge blow. However, Dak Prescott is still rolling, and the Panthers' defense is struggling to stop anything in the air. I’m taking Cowboys -3.5.
- Seahawks at Jaguars: This is a "who do you trust less?" game. Trevor Lawrence finally broke the Jags' losing streak, and they’ve reached 30 points for the first time in forever. Seattle’s defense is good, but they struggle when they don't blitz. If they let Lawrence sit in the pocket, he’ll pick them apart. I'm taking the Jaguars 33-30 in a wild one.
Monday Night Doubleheader: The Future of the QB Position
The week ends with a massive matchup: Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels. This is the #1 vs. #2 pick from the draft. Last time they met in college, it was a Hail Mary finish.
The Commanders are 4-point favorites, and honestly, Jayden Daniels looks like he’s further along in his development. He’s more poised. The Bears are coming off a bye, which usually helps, but Washington’s offense is humming right now. I’m looking at Commanders 31-27.
Actionable Advice for Your Picks
- Monitor the Baltimore Wind: If those 30 mph gusts are real come Sunday morning, hammer the Under in the Rams/Ravens game.
- Avoid the Bengals Spread: Don't lay 14.5 points in the NFL unless the opposing team has literally no one left. It's a trap.
- Trust the Home Dogs: The Dolphins are 4.5-point home underdogs against the Chargers. Miami in the heat is a different animal. A small play on the Dolphins moneyline (+170) isn't the worst idea you'll have this week.
Success with nfl week 6 nfl picks isn't about knowing who is the better team—it's about knowing who is the better team right now under these specific conditions. Don't let the big logos fool you. Look at the injuries, check the clouds, and don't be afraid to take the points when the world is leaning the other way.