Week 4 was a complete fever dream. Seriously. If you told me at the start of the season that the Baltimore Ravens would be sitting at 1-4 heading into October, I’d have asked to see your temperature. But here we are. Lamar Jackson is nursing a hamstring injury, Cooper Rush is likely taking snaps for the flock, and the entire AFC North looks like it’s been turned upside down.
NFL week 5 picks aren't just about who has the better jersey; they’re about surviving the absolute chaos of the early-season injury bug.
Tyreek Hill is out for the year. CeeDee Lamb is sidelined. It feels like every fantasy roster in America is currently held together by duct tape and prayers. But for those of us looking to actually win some money—or at least win the office pool—this is where the real value hides. When the public panics over a missing superstar, the lines move in ways that smart bettors can exploit.
The London Trap: Vikings vs. Browns
Football at 9:30 a.m. is always a vibe, even if your nervous system isn't ready for it. The Minnesota Vikings are heading to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to face a Cleveland Browns team that looks, frankly, a bit lost.
Minnesota is favored by 3.5 points, and honestly? That feels low.
Even with J.J. McCarthy sidelined with that ankle issue, the Vikings' system under Kevin O'Connell is humming. Dillon Gabriel is stepping into the fire, and while he’s a rookie, he’s got weapons that make life easy. Meanwhile, Cleveland is struggling to find an identity. Their defense is still elite, but you can’t win games if you can’t score more than 13 points.
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- The Play: Vikings -3.5.
- Why: Traveling to London is a logistical nightmare. The team that's more stable at the coaching level usually handles the jet lag better. Minnesota has the culture; Cleveland has a lot of questions.
Why the Jets Might Actually Stun the Cowboys
I know, I know. Betting on the Jets feels like volunteering for a headache. But look at the context. Dallas is coming off a weird tie/loss stretch and they just lost CeeDee Lamb to an ankle injury. That is a massive hole in their offensive soul.
The Jets defense is still one of the most suffocating units in the league. Without Lamb to stretch the field, Dak Prescott is going to have to rely on Jalen Tolbert and a rotating cast of "who's that?" receivers.
The line has Dallas as a slim 1.5-point favorite.
If the Jets can just get "average" play from the quarterback position, their defense can win this game 17-13. It won't be pretty. It’ll probably be the kind of game that makes you want to turn off the TV by the third quarter. But ugly wins count the same as 50-point blowouts.
Heavyweight Fight: Lions at Bengals
Detroit is currently a massive 10.5-point favorite on the road in Cincinnati. That is a wild number for an NFL game. It tells you everything you need to know about the state of the Bengals right now.
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Joe Burrow is fighting for his life behind an offensive line that seems to be made of paper mache. On the other side, the Lions are a buzzsaw. They’re physical, they’re loud, and they’re clinical.
"We don't care about the spread. We care about the hit." — This sounds like something Dan Campbell would say, and his team plays like it.
However, 10.5 points is a lot to give a professional team at home. I’d stay away from the spread here and look at the Over (49.5). Both these teams can put up points in bunches, even if the Bengals are doing it in garbage time.
Quick Hits for the Rest of the Slate
- Chiefs at Jaguars: Kansas City is favored by 3.5 on Monday Night. Patrick Mahomes in primetime? Don't overthink it. Even with Xavier Worthy being a game-time decision, the Chiefs find a way.
- Texans at Ravens: Baltimore is 1-4. The vibes are bad. Houston is coming in hot. Taking the Texans -1.5 feels like the "square" play, but sometimes the public is right.
- Patriots at Bills: Buffalo is looking for their fifth straight home win against New England. The spread is 8.5. The Patriots looked good last week, but Orchard Park in October is a different beast altogether.
What Most People Get Wrong About Week 5
The biggest mistake people make with their NFL week 5 picks is overreacting to Week 4. In the NFL, "regression to the mean" is a real thing. A team that looked like a powerhouse last Sunday might have just benefited from a +3 turnover margin that isn't sustainable.
Look for the "buy low" spots. The Saints are 1.5-point favorites against the Giants. New Orleans has been running the ball effectively—189 yards last week—and the Giants are reeling from injuries to Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton.
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Don't chase the points from last week. Chase the matchups for this week.
Actionable Steps for Your Betting Card
To get the most out of this weekend, you need to be disciplined. Don't parlay eight games together and expect to buy a boat.
- Monitor the Hamstrings: Lamar Jackson and Jaxson Dart are the two biggest names to watch. If they don't go, the lines for the Ravens and Saints will shift significantly.
- Check the London Weather: It sounds nerdy, but the wind at Tottenham can ruin a kicking game. If it’s gusty, take the Under on the Vikings/Browns game.
- Trust the Home Dogs: In games with a spread of 2.5 or less, the home underdog (like the Panthers or the Jets) often has the emotional edge.
Keep your units small and your eyes on the injury reports. The NFL is a marathon, and Week 5 is usually where the pretenders start to fade away while the real contenders find their second wind.
Verify the final inactive lists 90 minutes before kickoff. If a key offensive lineman is out, that 3.5-point favorite suddenly becomes a very risky play. Focus on the trenches, watch the weather in Buffalo, and don't let a bad Week 4 loss scare you off a good team.