Man, NFL Week 5 was basically a fever dream. If you were looking at the slate back in October 2024, you probably thought you had a handle on things. You didn't. Nobody did. We saw 500-yard passing performances, London lockdowns, and a Sunday Night Football game in Pittsburgh that didn't even end until most people on the East Coast were hitting their second snooze alarm.
Picking winners in this league is a nightmare. Honestly, it’s why we love it. But when you look back at the nfl week 5 picks 2024 landscape, the "experts" got humbled fast. Everyone was ready to bury the Cowboys. People thought the Vikings were a fluke. Then Monday night happened, and Kareem Hunt looked like he’d stepped out of a time machine from 2017.
Let's get into the weeds of what actually happened and why the betting lines were such a mess.
The London Fog and the Rodgers Reality Check
The Jets and Vikings kicked things off across the pond, and it was ugly. Not "charming defensive struggle" ugly. Just... wet and sloppy. Most people making their nfl week 5 picks 2024 liked the Vikings to cover the 2.5-point spread, but the way it happened was a grind.
Minnesota moved to 5-0, but Sam Darnold finally looked mortal. He only hit 14 of 31 passes. That’s not great. However, the Vikings' defense is the real deal. Andrew Van Ginkel took an Aaron Rodgers pass 63 yards to the house early on, and that basically set the tone.
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The Jets tried to make a late push—Garrett Wilson is a beast, catching 10 balls for 101 yards—but Rodgers throwing three picks is a death sentence. Stephon Gilmore eventually iced it with an interception in the final minute. If you picked the Vikings, you won, but you probably chewed your fingernails off watching it.
That Ravens-Bengals Shootout Was Pure Insanity
If you like defense, this game was offensive. If you like offense, it was heaven.
Baltimore and Cincinnati put up 79 points combined. Joe Burrow played the game of his life—5 touchdowns, 392 yards—and he still lost. Think about that. You put up 38 points and your quarterback is throwing dimes to Ja'Marr Chase (who had 193 yards and two scores, by the way), and you still walk away 1-4.
The turning point was wild. Justin Tucker, who had been struggling by his standards, nailed a 56-yarder to send it to overtime. Then, chaos.
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- Lamar Jackson fumbled a snap in OT.
- The Bengals had the ball in FG range.
- Cincinnati botched the hold on a 53-yard attempt.
- Derrick Henry (The King) ripped off a 51-yard run on the very next play.
Tucker eventually chipped in a 24-yarder to win it 41-38. It was the kind of game that makes you realize why the Ravens are never out of it as long as #8 is under center.
Sunday Night Lightning and the Dallas Resilience
The Cowboys and Steelers didn't even start until almost 10:00 PM ET because of a massive weather delay. Rain. Lightning. Mud. It had all the vibes of a classic 10-7 slog.
But Dak Prescott had other ideas. Despite throwing two interceptions and fumbling, he finished with 352 yards. The Cowboys’ run game actually showed signs of life too, with Rico Dowdle putting up 114 total yards.
Pittsburgh’s offense is just... clunky. Justin Fields threw two touchdowns, but the Steelers couldn't move the chains consistently. The game ended on a 4th-and-goal with 20 seconds left. Dak found Jalen Tolbert for a 4-yard score to win 20-17. If you had the Steelers as home favorites in your nfl week 5 picks 2024, that one hurt. It felt like Pittsburgh had ten chances to put it away and just... didn't.
Monday Night: The Kareem Hunt Revenge Tour
Nobody expected the Chiefs-Saints game to be a masterclass in "old school" football. With Rashee Rice out, everyone wondered where Patrick Mahomes would go. The answer? Everywhere.
JuJu Smith-Schuster turned back the clock for 130 yards. Travis Kelce finally looked like himself again with 9 catches. But the story was Kareem Hunt. The guy was on his couch a few weeks prior, then he comes out and carries the rock 27 times for 102 yards and a score.
The Chiefs won 26-13, but the score doesn't tell you how much they dominated the clock. They held the ball for nearly 40 minutes. New Orleans lost Derek Carr to an oblique injury late, which basically ended any hope of a comeback.
What We Learned for the Rest of the Season
Looking back at these nfl week 5 picks 2024, there are a few things that seem obvious now but weren't then.
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- The Bengals' defense is a liability. You can't ask Burrow to score 40 every week just to have a chance.
- The Vikings' defense is the floor, not the ceiling. Even when Darnold struggles, Brian Flores' scheme keeps them in games.
- Don't bet against the Chiefs' depth. Andy Reid will find a way to make a practice squad player look like an All-Pro.
- The Commanders are for real. Jayden Daniels dismantled the Browns 34-13. If you weren't buying the hype then, you had to after Week 5.
If you're still looking at these trends, pay attention to the "ugly" wins. Teams like the Cowboys and Vikings winning games where they didn't play their best is usually a sign of a playoff contender. On the flip side, teams like the Seahawks losing at home to the Giants (29-20) should have been a massive red flag.
To stay ahead of the curve, stop looking at just the box scores. Look at the "Success Rate" and "EPA per play" (Expected Points Added). In Week 5, the Jaguars actually had a massive 9.3 yards per play against the Colts. That’s why they finally got their first win.
Go back and watch the condensed replays of the Ravens-Bengals and Cowboys-Steelers games. Pay attention to how the offensive lines held up in the fourth quarter—it’s the best indicator of who will cover the spread in the following weeks.
Next Steps for Your Strategy:
- Analyze the turnover margins from these games; teams like the Vikings and Packers are baiting veteran QBs into mistakes that lines don't always account for.
- Watch the injury reports for the Saints and Jets, as the fallout from Week 5 (Carr's injury, Rodgers' high ankle sprain) will dictate their value for the next month of the season.