Week 4 is usually when the "September mirage" starts to evaporate. You know the one. That 3-0 team that everyone thinks is a juggernaut suddenly looks human, and that 0-3 squad playing for their lives starts to look like a desperate animal in a corner. Vegas knows this. The books have spent three weeks adjusting their models, and the nfl week 4 vegas odds for the 2025 season are reflecting a massive shift in how we should view these teams.
If you're looking at the board right now, some of these spreads feel like bait. They probably are.
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Take the Buffalo Bills hosting the New Orleans Saints, for instance. The Bills opened as massive 14.5-point favorites, and in some spots, that number even touched 16.5. That is a gargantuan spread for a professional football game. While Buffalo has been humming, New Orleans is sitting at 0-3 and basically fighting for their season's survival. History tells us that double-digit favorites in the NFL are a risky proposition, especially when a team is as desperate as the Saints are right now.
Why the NFL Week 4 Vegas Odds Are Shifting So Fast
Injuries are the obvious culprit for the early-week line movement we've seen. The Arizona Cardinals took a massive hit with James Conner's season-ending injury. That’s why we saw their game against the Seattle Seahawks move from Cardinals -2.5 all the way down to Seahawks -1.5. Kyler Murray is going to have to do it all himself now.
Without a reliable run game to keep the defense honest, the Seahawks' pass rush is likely to pin its ears back.
Then you have the "International Factor." The Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Dublin, Ireland. Betting on neutral-site games is basically like betting on a coin flip with jet lag. Minnesota opened as 2.5-point favorites, but the total is sitting at a low 40.5 or 41.5 depending on where you shop. These overseas games often start slow as players find their legs in a different time zone. Honestly, if you're betting the over in Dublin, you're a braver soul than most.
The Big Games Everyone Is Watching
The matchup everyone has circled is the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Arrowhead to face the Kansas City Chiefs. This isn't just a regular-season game; it’s a heavyweight fight for AFC supremacy. Interestingly, the Ravens opened as 3-point road favorites. Let that sink in. Vegas is actually giving the edge to the visitors in one of the toughest environments in sports.
- Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs: Ravens -2.5 (O/U 48.5)
- Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: Packers -7 (O/U 47.5)
- Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Eagles -3.5 (O/U 43.5)
The Packers being 7-point favorites in Big D is another eye-popper. Dallas has historically been a fortress, but the 2025 version of the Cowboys looks shaky. Meanwhile, Green Bay is playing like a well-oiled machine. When the nfl week 4 vegas odds came out, sharps pounced on that -7, believing the Packers' offense is simply too much for a Dallas secondary that has struggled with explosive plays.
The Rookie QB Trap in New York
Over at MetLife, the Giants are making a massive change. Russell Wilson is out, and Jaxson Dart is in. The rookie is getting his first start against a Los Angeles Chargers defense that is absolutely flying around right now. The Chargers are 6-point road favorites, up from an opener of 3.5.
Usually, a rookie quarterback's first start brings some juice to the stadium, but the Chargers' pass rush, led by a revitalized Justin Herbert on the other side of the ball, is a nightmare matchup. Most experts like Geoff Schwartz are pointing toward the under (43.5) here. Why? Because the Giants' offensive line is a sieve, and the Chargers' defense hasn't allowed much of anything through three weeks.
Spotting Value in the Totals
Everyone loves to talk about the spreads, but the real money is often made in the totals. The Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans are looking at a total of 39.5. That is remarkably low for 2025. It tells you exactly what the books think of those offenses.
On the flip side, the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Rams have a total of 49.5. The Rams are coming off a frustrating loss to the Eagles and are expected to "bounce back" in a big way. The Colts have been a surprise at 3-0, but they've played a relatively soft schedule. This is the "prove it" game for Indy. If they can keep up with the Rams' scoring pace, they might actually be for real.
Actionable Betting Insights for Week 4
If you're looking to actually use these nfl week 4 vegas odds to your advantage, here’s how to approach the board.
- Watch the "Dublin Under": History shows that teams playing in Europe often struggle to find offensive rhythm in the first half. The 41.5 total for Vikings-Steelers feels like it could go even lower if the weather in Ireland gets "Irish."
- Respect the Ravens as Road Favorites: When Vegas makes a team a road favorite against a powerhouse like the Chiefs, they aren't doing it for fun. They want you to take the Chiefs and the points. Don't fall for the trap.
- The "Desperation Dog" Rule: The Saints (+14.5) and the Jets (+2.5) are both 0-3. In the NFL, 0-4 is a death sentence for the playoffs. Expect these teams to play with a level of aggression and "fake punt" energy that you don't see in Week 1.
- Monitor the Mike Evans Injury: The Eagles are 3.5-point favorites in Tampa, but if Mike Evans can't go with that hamstring issue, that line could jump to 4.5 or 5.0 quickly.
The most important thing to remember about Week 4 is that the "public" is usually overreacting to what they saw in Week 3. The Raiders are 1.5-point favorites over the Bears, but that line feels fishy given how inconsistent Las Vegas has been. Trust the numbers, but more importantly, trust the situational spots. A team coming off a blowout loss is almost always a better bet than a team coming off a blowout win.
Check your local sportsbooks for the latest movements, as these lines will continue to wiggle until the 1:00 PM ET kickoffs on Sunday. Betting against the grain is uncomfortable, but in Week 4, uncomfortable is usually where the profit lives.