NFL Week 4 is usually when the "imposter" teams start to crumble and the real contenders show their teeth. It’s that weird sweet spot in the season. You've seen enough to think you know who’s good, but you're still regularly getting slapped in the face by reality.
Honestly, looking at the slate for the 2025-2026 season, there are some matchups that feel like absolute traps. You've got rookie quarterbacks hitting their first real "pro wall" and veteran defenses starting to figure out the new offensive wrinkles. If you’re looking for a safe week, this isn’t it.
The AFC East Chaos: Bills vs. Dolphins
People keep waiting for Buffalo to take a step back, but Josh Allen seems to have other plans. The predictions week 4 nfl pundits are mostly leaning toward the Bills here, and for good reason. They just look more physical.
The Dolphins are still fast—scary fast—but if the weather in Orchard Park or even the humidity in Miami starts to play a factor, the Bills' ability to grind out drives usually wins. Most analysts are calling for a 31-21 Buffalo victory. It’s hard to argue with that when Tua is facing a Matt Milano-led defense that specializes in taking away those quick-slant intermediate routes.
Why the "Safe" Bets Feel Dangerous
Take the Green Bay Packers heading into Dallas. On paper, Jordan Love and that explosive young receiving corps should handle a Cowboys team that’s been, well, inconsistent. But AT&T Stadium does weird things to visiting teams.
Some models are projecting a 40-40 tie or a razor-thin margin. That’s insane. But it also speaks to how much the Dallas offense, led by George Pickens now, can explode when they aren't tripping over their own feet.
Then you have the Chicago Bears and Caleb Williams. Everyone is high on them after a decent start, but they’re facing a Raiders team that thrives on making games ugly. You think it's a blowout? Think again. The Raiders' secondary, featuring guys like Eric Stokes, is specifically built to frustrate rookie QBs who hold the ball too long.
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Under the Radar: Vikings vs. Steelers in Dublin
Yeah, you read that right. We're going to Ireland.
- Venue: Croke Park, Dublin.
- The Vibe: High energy, low scoring.
- The Matchup: Sam Darnold’s resurgence vs. the Steel Curtain.
Most experts are taking the Under 40.5 here. It’s a travel game. Bodies are heavy. The grass is different. Pittsburgh’s defense is beginning to look like the vintage 2000s version, and they might just feast on a Vikings team that relies heavily on timing.
NFL Week 4: The Games Nobody Is Talking About
The Jaguars vs. 49ers matchup is a total sleeper. Everyone assumes San Francisco just rolls because, well, they're the Niners. But Jacksonville has been weirdly resilient.
If Trevor Lawrence can avoid the two-turnover games that haunted his early season, they have the athletes to match the Niners' pace. Still, Brock Purdy’s "never-say-die" attitude makes it hard to bet against them at Levi’s Stadium. Expect a one-score game that comes down to a Jake Moody field goal.
Real Insights for Your Pick’em Pool
Stop betting on the Jets. Seriously.
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They’re facing the Dolphins or the Bucs depending on the flex, and it doesn't matter. Until they prove they can protect the quarterback—whether it’s a veteran or a backup—they are a "fade" every single week.
On the flip side, keep an eye on the Denver Broncos. Bo Nix is starting to run more, and Sean Payton is finally opening up the playbook. They might not win every game, but they are covering spreads at a rate that should make Vegas nervous.
Actionable Next Steps
- Check the Injury Report: Specifically look for "Limited Participation" on Thursday. If a star offensive lineman is still limited by Friday, the underdog cover is much more likely.
- Monitor Line Movement: If the Bills move from -3 to -6 suddenly, the "sharps" know something about the Dolphins' secondary that you don't.
- Focus on the Trenches: In Week 4, fatigue sets in. The team with the better O-line DVOA (Football Outsiders is great for this) usually wins the fourth quarter.
Look at the matchups, ignore the helmet logos, and focus on who is actually winning the line of scrimmage. That’s how you win Week 4.