Vegas hates a runaway train. By the time Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season rolled around, the betting public was convinced they had the league figured out. The Buffalo Bills looked like an unstoppable juggernaut, the Vikings were a "cute" story that was supposed to end at Lambeau, and everyone assumed the Jets would finally steamroll a rookie quarterback in the rain.
They were wrong.
NFL week 4 picks against the spread 2024 became a graveyard for "safe" parlays. If you bet on the heavy favorites, you probably finished the weekend with a lighter wallet and a lot of questions about why you trust Aaron Rodgers in a monsoon.
The Week 4 Reality Check: Favorites Falter
Look, betting the NFL is basically trying to predict the weather while standing in a wind tunnel. Week 4 was the perfect example of why the "eye test" often fails against the spread (ATS).
One of the biggest shocks—and honestly, one of the funniest if you weren't holding a Jets -8 ticket—was the Denver Broncos heading into New Jersey. The Jets were nearly double-digit favorites. Bo Nix had looked, well, like a rookie struggling to find his footing. But the Denver defense decided to turn MetLife Stadium into a swampy nightmare for Rodgers.
The final score was 10-9. Denver won outright. If you took the +8, you didn't just cover; you coasted. This is the first thing people get wrong about NFL week 4 picks against the spread 2024: they overvalue home-field advantage for teams that haven't proven they can score consistently.
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That Vikings-Packers Rollercoaster
Minnesota at Green Bay was the game of the week for anyone who loves chaos. The Vikings were 2.5-point underdogs. Sam Darnold—yes, that Sam Darnold—came out and turned the first half into a clinic.
- The Blitz: Brian Flores sent heat that Jordan Love wasn't ready for in his first game back.
- The Lead: Minnesota went up 28-0. Twenty-eight to nothing!
- The Sweat: If you had the Vikings +2.5, you felt like a genius. Then the second half happened.
Green Bay clawed back to make it 31-29. The Vikings won, and they covered, but it was a heart-stopper for anyone who bet the spread rather than the moneyline. It showed that divisional games are almost always tighter than the record suggests, especially when a star QB is returning from injury.
Why the "Lock" of the Week Failed
Everyone and their mother was on the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football. They were 3-0. Josh Allen was the MVP frontrunner. They were facing a Baltimore Ravens team that had looked shaky and was only a 2.5-point favorite at home.
It was a trap.
Derrick Henry took the first handoff 87 yards for a touchdown. The Ravens didn't just win; they dismantled Buffalo 35-10. This is a classic case where the "sharp" money stayed on the home favorite despite the "public" money pouring in on the underdog. When a line feels "too small" for a team as good as Buffalo, it’s usually because the books know something you don't. In this case, it was that Baltimore’s run game was about to delete the Bills' defense from the server.
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The Jayden Daniels Ascendance
If there was one "reliable" bet in NFL week 4 picks against the spread 2024, it was the Washington Commanders. They were 3.5-point underdogs against the Arizona Cardinals.
People were still skeptical of Jayden Daniels. "He's a rookie," they said. "The defense is bad," they claimed.
Washington put up 42 points.
The Commanders' 42-14 blowout was a reminder that momentum is a real thing in betting. Arizona was coming off a hard-fought game and looked gassed, while Washington was playing with house money. Taking a red-hot rookie against a mediocre defense is a move that sharps love, and it paid out big in Glendale.
Common Misconceptions About Week 4 Betting
A lot of folks think that by Week 4, we have enough data to know who teams really are. That's a myth.
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The Philadelphia Eagles went into Tampa Bay as 1-point favorites. They got bullied. Final score: 33-16 Buccaneers. The "misconception" here was that the Eagles' talent would overcome their coaching inconsistencies and injuries (missing A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith). In the NFL, missing your top two receivers is almost always an automatic "fade" regardless of the spread.
| Game | Spread | Result | ATS Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos @ Jets | Jets -8 | 10-9 DEN | Broncos |
| Vikings @ Packers | Packers -2.5 | 31-29 MIN | Vikings |
| Bills @ Ravens | Ravens -2.5 | 35-10 BAL | Ravens |
| Commanders @ Cardinals | Cardinals -3.5 | 42-14 WAS | Commanders |
What We Learned for Future Slates
Honestly, the biggest takeaway from the NFL week 4 picks against the spread 2024 is that the "middle class" of the NFL is much larger than we think.
The gap between a "bad" team like the 2024 Broncos and a "good" team like the Jets was non-existent on a rainy Sunday. The Raiders, as 2.5-point underdogs at home against the Browns, pulled off a 20-16 win. It wasn't pretty. It was ugly, grind-it-out football. But for bettors, "ugly" pays the same as "beautiful."
Key Actionable Insights:
- Watch the Weather: The Denver/NYJ game was ruined by rain, which always favors the underdog and the "Under" on total points.
- Injuries Matter More Than Names: The Eagles without their WRs were a shell of themselves. Never bet a favorite that is missing its primary playmakers.
- Divisional Dogs: In Week 4, divisional underdogs (like the Vikings and Broncos) performed exceptionally well. The familiarity between teams keeps scores closer than the talent gap suggests.
- Don't Chase the Hype: Buffalo was the most hyped team in the league heading into Sunday night. Fade the hype, follow the trenches.
If you’re looking to improve your hit rate, stop looking at the standings and start looking at the matchups. A great quarterback against a high-pressure blitz (like Love vs. Flores) is a recipe for a cover by the underdog.
For your next betting slate, check the injury report specifically for offensive line changes. The Bengals managed to beat the Panthers 34-24 and cover the 4.5 points mostly because their line finally gave Joe Burrow a clean pocket. When the protection holds, the favorites usually cover. When it doesn't, chaos reigns.
Take a look at the upcoming Week 5 lines and see if any favorites are being overvalued after a big Week 4 win. That’s usually where the value hides.