If you’re staring at your nfl week 3 pick sheet right now feeling like you don’t know a single thing about football, join the club. Seriously. Two weeks of data in the NFL is just enough to make us feel smart, but usually, it's just enough to get us into trouble. We see a team like the Indianapolis Colts start 2-0 with Daniel Jones and suddenly we're ready to crown them the new kings of the AFC South. Then we see the Ravens at 0-2 and assume the sky is falling in Baltimore.
It’s a trap. Every single year.
Week 3 is where the "great" teams that started slow finally wake up and the "miracle" 2-0 teams hit a brick wall. If you want to actually win your office pool or beat the spread this weekend, you have to stop picking based on what happened last Sunday and start picking based on what’s actually sustainable. Let’s get into the weeds of this week's slate, because honestly, some of these lines are bait.
The Trap Games and the "Must-Wins"
We have a weird one on Sunday night. The Kansas City Chiefs are headed to MetLife to face the New York Giants. Normally, you'd just circle the Chiefs and move on. But Kansas City is sitting at 0-2. Let that sink in. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid haven't won a game yet in 2025. On the other side, the Giants are also 0-2. It’s the only matchup of winless teams on the entire schedule.
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Most people are going to hammer the Chiefs because, well, they're the Chiefs. And they're probably right. But a 6-point spread on the road for a team that has looked out of sync is risky. If you're filling out a confidence-based nfl week 3 pick sheet, maybe don't put this one at the very top.
Then you've got the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Detroit Lions on Monday night. This is a heavyweight fight. The Ravens are favored by 4.5, and honestly, Baltimore at home in prime time is one of the safest bets in sports. Lamar Jackson is 7-2 on Monday nights with 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Zero! That's a stat that feels fake, but it's 100% real. If the Lions' secondary plays like they did last week, Lamar is going to have a field day.
Quick Hits for the Sunday 1 PM Window
- Packers at Browns: Green Bay is favored by 7.5. The Browns' defense is legit, but their offense is a mess. Expect a low-scoring grind where the Packers cover late.
- Texans at Jaguars: This is the slimmest spread of the week at Jaguars -1.5. Jacksonville probably should have won last week, and the "law of averages" says the Texans are due for a reality check.
- Bears at Cowboys: Dallas is a 1.5-point favorite. Both of these defenses have been porous. If you’re looking at a total score tiebreaker, go high here. This could easily be a 31-28 type of game.
Injuries are Ruining Everything (Again)
You can't talk about a nfl week 3 pick sheet without looking at the training room. It is a literal graveyard out there.
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Joe Burrow is out with turf toe. J.J. McCarthy is sidelined. Even the "iron man" types like CeeDee Lamb and Nick Bosa are dealing with ankle and knee issues. When you're making your picks, you have to look at the backup quarterback situations. Jake Browning is stepping in for the Bengals against a Vikings team that is also down a starter. That game is basically a "Who can suck less?" contest.
The Saints vs. Seahawks game at 4:05 PM is another one affected by the injury bug. Seattle is a 7.5-point favorite, but their secondary is banged up. Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love are both doubtful. If Derek Carr can actually protect the ball for four quarters, the Saints might not just cover—they might win straight up.
How to Actually Strategy Your Way to a Win
Look, there are two ways to fill out a pick sheet. You can go with your gut, or you can play the numbers.
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If you're in a confidence pool, you have to rank your games from 16 (most confident) down to 1 (least confident). My advice? Put the Buffalo Bills over the Miami Dolphins at the top. The Bills are 10-point favorites for a reason. Miami's offense has looked stagnant, and Buffalo at home in September is a nightmare for opposing teams.
On the flip side, put the Raiders at Commanders or the Steelers at Patriots near the bottom. Those games are total coin flips. The Steelers are 1.5-point road favorites, but their offense is about as consistent as a dial-up internet connection. One week they look like world-beaters, the next they can't find the end zone with a map.
What Most People Get Wrong
- Chasing Points: Don't pick an underdog just because the spread is big. A 10-point underdog is usually a 10-point underdog for a reason.
- Overvaluing Home Field: In the modern NFL, home-field advantage is worth maybe 1.5 to 2 points, not 3 like it used to be.
- Ignoring the Weather: It’s late September. It's still hot in some places and starting to get windy in others. Keep an eye on the forecast for that Chicago/Dallas game.
Making the Final Call
When you finally sit down to lock in your nfl week 3 pick sheet, take a deep breath. Don't let the Week 2 highlights cloud your judgment. The 2-0 Colts are a fun story, but are they really going to stay perfect? Probably not. The 0-2 Chiefs are a disaster, but are they really going to go 0-3? Highly unlikely.
Focus on the matchups in the trenches. The Chargers' defensive line against a struggling Denver offense is a mismatch. The Buccaneers' pass rush against a Jets team with offensive line issues is another one to watch.
The best thing you can do right now is check the final injury reports on Friday afternoon. A lot of these "Questionable" tags turn into "Out" very quickly, and that half-point move in the spread can tell you exactly what the Vegas sharps are thinking.
- Verify the status of Jayden Daniels for the Commanders before picking that Raiders game.
- Check if CeeDee Lamb actually practices on Friday; if he's out, that Cowboys line will flip.
- Look at the weather in Seattle; if it’s windy, lean toward the under.
- Download a clean, printable sheet and mark your "locks" first to clear your head for the tough calls.