Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season isn't just another slate of games. Honestly, it's the moment the "pretender" mask usually slips off. If you’ve been following the script so far, you know the Kansas City Chiefs have been playing with fire for two months, escaping by the skin of their teeth week after week. But the vibes are shifting. People are looking at the Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh Steelers and realizing the AFC might not be a foregone conclusion.
Predictions are tricky because everyone loves a safe bet. You’ll hear "don't bet against Mahomes" or "the Ravens' offense is unstoppable." But let's get real for a second. The data shows some cracks.
The Bills vs. Chiefs Reality Check
Most analysts were leaning toward Kansas City just because they’re the Chiefs. But Buffalo at home is a different animal. Highmark Stadium is basically a fortress in November. The Chiefs came in 9-0, but they were the "worst" undefeated team we’ve seen in years statistically. Seriously. Their point differential was razor-thin.
Josh Allen didn't just play quarterback; he played hero. That 26-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-2? That wasn't just a play. It was a statement. The Bills ended up taking it 30-21, finally handing KC a loss. If you predicted a Chiefs blowout, you weren't paying attention to how much Patrick Mahomes has struggled with a rotating door of receivers this year. Noah Gray had two touchdowns, which is cool, but when your tight end depth is your primary scoring threat, you’ve got issues.
Why the Steelers Own the Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens have the best offense in the league. On paper. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level again, and Derrick Henry is basically a human wrecking ball. So, why did they lose 18-16 to Pittsburgh?
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Because Mike Tomlin is a wizard. It's the only explanation. The Steelers didn't even score a touchdown. Not one. Chris Boswell just went out there and kicked six field goals like it was a light practice.
The Steelers defense makes Lamar Jackson look human. They held him to 16-of-33 passing. That’s under 50%. In a league where everyone throws for 70%, that is insane. If you’re making nfl week 11 predictions 2024 for the rematch later this year, remember this: the Steelers don't care how good your stats are. They will turn the game into a rock fight and win because they’re better at bleeding on you than you are on them.
The NFC Chaos Nobody Is Talking About
Everyone is obsessed with the Lions—and for good reason. They just dropped 52 points on the Jaguars. Jared Goff had a perfect passer rating. It was a bloodbath. But look at the San Francisco 49ers. They just lost to the Seahawks 20-17.
Geno Smith marched down the field and ran it in himself with 12 seconds left. The Niners are 5-5. People keep waiting for them to "flip the switch," but the switch might be broken. Christian McCaffrey is back, but the defense is giving up late leads like it’s a hobby.
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Surprising Stat Leaders from the Weekend
- Bo Nix: The rookie actually looked like a franchise guy. 307 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Falcons. Denver won 38-6.
- Taysom Hill: 138 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s 34 years old. The Saints are weird.
- Matthew Stafford: 295 yards and 4 TDs. The Rams are still lurking in the NFC West hunt after beating the Patriots.
The Jets Are Basically Done
It’s painful to watch at this point. Aaron Rodgers and the Jets lost 28-27 to the Colts. Anthony Richardson, who was literally benched two weeks ago, came back and looked like Cam Newton in his prime during the final drive.
The Jets are 3-8. They have all this talent, a Hall of Fame QB, and they still find ways to lose to a team that didn't know who their starter was on Tuesday. If you had the Jets making a late-season run in your predictions, it's time to let that dream go. They are officially in "look at mock drafts" territory.
What This Means for Your Picks
Moving forward, the biggest takeaway from Week 11 is that the "elite" teams are vulnerable. The Chiefs can be beaten if you force Mahomes to be a check-down king. The Ravens can be smothered if you have the discipline of the Steelers. And the NFC is basically the Lions and then a giant pile of "who knows?"
Stop betting on names. Start betting on trenches. The Lions and Bills are winning because their offensive lines are moving people against their will.
Next Steps for Week 12 and Beyond:
- Watch the Injury Reports: Alex Anzalone (Lions LB) is out with a broken arm. That’s a huge hole in the middle of a top defense.
- Fade the 49ers: Until they prove they can finish a game in the 4th quarter, they are a liability for bettors.
- Respect the Broncos: Bo Nix is settling in. Sean Payton has that defense playing at a top-5 level. They are a legitimate playoff team.
- Monitor the AFC North: The Steelers are 8-2. They have the tiebreaker over Baltimore. The road to the Super Bowl might actually go through Pittsburgh, which is something nobody predicted in August.