NFL Week 11 is where the pretenders usually start to fade into the background. Honestly, by this point in the season, your office pool is probably down to the three people who actually pay attention and that one person who picks teams based on which mascot would win in a street fight. If you’re looking at an nfl week 11 pick sheet and feeling a bit of a headache coming on, you aren't alone. Between the international travel to Madrid and the brutal divisional rematches, this week is a total minefield.
November football isn't about who has the best jersey; it’s about who is still healthy. You’ve got teams like the Patriots looking surprisingly competent with Drake Maye, while the Jets are... well, they're the Jets. Let's break down how to actually fill out your sheet without losing your mind or your entry fee.
The Games That Will Mess Up Your NFL Week 11 Pick Sheet
Most people look at a massive spread and think "easy win." That is exactly how you lose your pool by Sunday afternoon. Take the New England Patriots laying 11.5 points against the New York Jets. On paper, New England is the better team—they've won seven straight and look like AFC powerhouses. But 11.5 points in a divisional game on a short week? That’s a lot of points. The Jets are basically playing for pride at this point, but they’ve been known to cover spreads just by being annoying.
Then you have the Madrid game. The Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins are flying all the way to Spain to play at the Santiago Bernabéu. International games are weird. The jet lag hits everyone differently. While the Dolphins have speed, Washington’s defensive line has been a nightmare for quarterbacks lately. If you’re filling out your nfl week 11 pick sheet, don't just click the favorite here. Consider how a team that relies on precision timing, like Miami, might struggle on a pitch that was meant for soccer just a few days ago.
✨ Don't miss: Why Your 1 Arm Pull Up Progression Isn't Working (And How to Fix It)
Divisional Grudge Matches to Watch
Divisional games are where the "stats" usually go out the window. You’ve got:
- Bengals at Steelers: Pittsburgh is favored by about 6.5, mostly because Joe Burrow is dealing with a toe injury and might not even play. Without Burrow, the Bengals' offense is a shell of itself.
- Ravens at Browns: Baltimore is a massive 9-point favorite. Lamar Jackson is back and playing like an MVP again, but Cleveland always plays the Ravens tough at home. If Myles Garrett gets home a few times, that 9-point spread starts looking very large.
- Bears at Vikings: This is a classic "trap" game. Minnesota is the home favorite, but Caleb Williams has finally found his rhythm. The NFC North is a blender this year; don't be surprised if the underdog Bears take this one straight up.
Why the Bye Week Matters More Than You Think
You've only got two teams on bye this week: the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints. Usually, a light bye week means more choices for your pick sheet, but it also means fewer excuses for a bad performance.
The Colts have been the surprise of the year, leading the AFC South with Jonathan Taylor looking like he’s 22 again. Missing them on the slate sucks if you usually bank on Taylor’s production. On the flip side, the Saints being away gives the rest of the NFC South a chance to breathe. If you're playing in a "Confidence" pool where you rank your picks from 1 to 15, the lack of bye teams means you have to be much more certain about the middle-of-the-road games like Falcons vs. Panthers.
🔗 Read more: El Salvador partido de hoy: Why La Selecta is at a Critical Turning Point
Handling the Injury Report Like a Pro
You cannot—I repeat, cannot—finish an nfl week 11 pick sheet without checking the Saturday afternoon injury updates. This year has been a graveyard for star players.
C.J. Stroud is out with a concussion for the Texans, which makes their game against the Titans a total toss-up. Davis Mills is a fine backup, but he’s not Stroud. Meanwhile, the Giants are a mess. They just fired Brian Daboll, and their breakout QB Jaxson Dart is in concussion protocol. If Jameis Winston starts for them, expect either 400 yards and four touchdowns or four interceptions. There is no in-between with Jameis.
- Check the QB status: If it’s a backup, fade the total (the Under is usually your friend).
- Look at the O-Line: The Broncos lead the league in sacks. If they’re playing a team with a backup tackle, that's a mismatch you have to exploit.
- Watch the weather: It's mid-November. Cleveland and Buffalo are going to be cold. This favors teams that can run the ball, like the Bills with James Cook.
Actionable Strategy for Your Pick Sheet
If you want to actually win your pool this week, stop following the crowd. Most of your friends are going to pick the Chiefs to beat the Broncos because "It's Mahomes." But the Broncos have a top-3 defense and the Chiefs have been struggling to score more than 24 points lately.
💡 You might also like: Meaning of Grand Slam: Why We Use It for Tennis, Baseball, and Breakfast
Risk vs. Reward Picks
If you are behind in your league standings, you need to take a couple of calculated risks. The Browns over the Ravens is a huge "swing" pick. If it hits, you gain massive ground because 90% of your league will pick Baltimore. If you are leading the league, play it safe. Pick the favorites and let the people behind you take the risks.
The Lions at the Eagles on Sunday Night Football is the game of the week. Philadelphia is a slight 2.5-point favorite at home, but Detroit’s offense is putting up over 31 points per game. This is a game where the winner likely determines the #1 seed in the NFC. I’d lean Lions here—their offensive line is just too physical for the Eagles' front four right now.
Finalizing Your Selections
Before you lock in your nfl week 11 pick sheet, do a final sweep. Check the kicker situation—the Texans are missing Ka’imi Fairbairn, which is huge in a close game. Check the London/Madrid travel schedules. And for the love of football, don't forget the Monday Night game. The Cowboys and Raiders could be a shootout because neither team seems to enjoy playing defense this year.
Your Next Steps:
- Download a clean template: Use a Google Sheet or a printable PDF so you can track your changes.
- Verify the Saturday Status: Wait until the final injury reports are released before finalizing your "Confidence" points.
- Look for the "Hook": If a line is -3.5, the oddsmakers are begging you to take the favorite. Be careful; that half-point is a killer.
Good luck. November is where champions are made, or at least where you finally beat your brother-in-law in the family pool.