Let's be honest: Week 9 was an absolute bloodbath for anyone holding a "sure thing" betting slip. The Packers got stunned at home by a Carolina team that looked dead in the water just a month ago. The Lions—everybody's darling—found a way to drop one to the Vikings in a game where Jared Goff looked human for the first time in forever.
NFL week 10 straight up picks are becoming a nightmare to nail down. The parity in the league right now is almost annoying. You've got the 14-3 juggernauts like the Patriots and Seahawks looking invincible one minute, and then the Saints' offense looking like they’re playing in slow motion the next. It's a weird year.
If you’re trying to navigate the moneyline this week, you have to look past the jersey names. We’re in the "grind" phase of the season. Injuries are piling up. Depth charts are being tested. And quite frankly, some of these spreads are just plain disrespectful to the underdogs.
The Big One in Green Bay: Eagles at Packers
Monday night is going to be a heater. Seriously. We have the 6-2 Eagles traveling to Lambeau to face a 5-2-1 Packers squad that is currently nursing a massive bruised ego after that Carolina upset.
Jordan Love had a decent statistical day last week with 273 yards, but the offense lacked that "it" factor in the red zone. On the other side, the Eagles are a weird 11-6 ATS in their last few outings as road underdogs. They thrive in this "nobody believes in us" role.
The Pick: Honestly? I’m going with the Packers. Dan Campbell and the Lions might have the hype, but Green Bay at home in November is a different beast. Jordan Love usually bounces back well after a dud, and I expect the Packers' pass rush to make Jalen Hurts uncomfortable enough to force a late turnover.
Why Everyone is Wrong About the Texans and Jaguars
This is the "Trap Game of the Century." The Texans are sitting at home as favorites, but they are a shell of themselves. C.J. Stroud is out with a concussion. Will Anderson Jr. has been banged up. It’s the Davis Mills show, and if you watched him last week against Denver, you know that isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for a win.
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Jacksonville, meanwhile, is somehow 13-4 over their last stretch and Trevor Lawrence is finally playing like the guy who was promised. They just added Jakobi Meyers to the mix, and while that doesn't fix everything, it gives Lawrence a reliable chain-mover.
- Texans' struggle: Houston is allowing just 15.1 points per game (best in the league), but they can't score without Stroud.
- Jaguars' momentum: They've won 8 straight. That isn't a fluke.
The Pick: Jaguars. I know, taking a road team in a divisional rivalry feels gross. But until Houston proves they can move the sticks with a backup QB, you can't trust them to win straight up.
The International Wildcard: Falcons at Colts (Berlin)
NFL week 10 straight up picks get even weirder when you ship the teams to Germany. The Colts are 7-1 and looking like legitimate AFC contenders, mostly because Jonathan Taylor is playing like he's back in 2021. He's on pace for over 2,200 scrimmage yards. That is insane.
The Falcons are desperate. They’re 8-9 and fighting for a Wild Card spot, but their offensive line is a mess. Leonard Floyd and Chris Lindstrom have been missing practice time. If you can't block for Kirk Cousins, you aren't winning in Berlin or anywhere else.
The Pick: Colts. Shane Steichen is currently the front-runner for Coach of the Year for a reason. He’s found a way to make Daniel Jones (yes, that Daniel Jones) look efficient. With Taylor running behind that massive Indy line, the Falcons' defense will be gassed by the third quarter.
Are the Seahawks Actually the Best Team in Football?
If you look at the stats, it’s hard to argue against Seattle. They are 14-3. They lead the league in scoring. Their defense under Mike Macdonald is giving up just 4.7 yards per play.
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This week they face an Arizona team that just named Jacoby Brissett the starter. No offense to Jacoby—he’s a pro’s pro—but he’s not walking into Lumen Field and out-dueling Sam Darnold. Darnold has been a revelation this year. He threw for 330 yards last week and seems to have a telepathic connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
"Seattle simply feels like too much, especially at home." — Every analyst with eyes right now.
The Pick: Seahawks. Don't overthink this. It’s the easiest play on the board. Arizona might keep it close for a half because divisional games are inherently chaotic, but Seattle pulls away late.
The Messy Middle: Jets vs. Browns
This is what we call a "Dog Game." Both teams are coming off a bye. Both teams have major QB issues. The Jets just had a literal fire sale, trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. That's essentially surrendering on the season.
The Browns aren't much better, but they still have a defense that can hit. Even without some of their stars, Cleveland plays a physical style of football that the current "looking for a vacation" Jets won't want to deal with.
- Jets: 3-14 record and no defensive identity left.
- Browns: 5-12 but significantly better coached on the defensive side.
The Pick: Browns. It won't be pretty. It might be 16-13. You probably shouldn't even watch it. But Cleveland wins because the Jets have mentally checked out of the 2025 season.
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Avoiding the "Letdown" Trap
A lot of people are jumping on the Panthers' bandwagon after they beat the Packers. Don't do it. That was a classic "Super Bowl" moment for a bad team. Now they have to face a Saints team that is equally bad but might have a slight edge in desperation.
Actually, scratch that. The Saints' offense is pathetic. They’re averaging 18 points a game and look like they’re running through mud.
The Pick: Panthers. Rico Dowdle is the hottest running back in the league you aren't talking about. He’s averaged 173 rushing yards over his last three starts. Against a Saints defense that allows the sixth-most rushing yards in the league? Dowdle is going to feast.
Actionable Insights for Your Straight Up Board
When you're finalizing your nfl week 10 straight up picks, remember that the "Trade Deadline Hangover" is real. Teams that moved major pieces (like the Jets) often come out flat. Teams that stood pat or added depth usually have a locker room morale boost.
- Focus on the O-Line: If a team has two or more starters on the injury report (like the Falcons), fade them.
- Home Field in Primetime: The Broncos and Seahawks have been dominant at home under the lights this year.
- Trust the Bounce Back: Dan Campbell’s Lions are 16-12-1 SU after a loss. They don't stay down for long.
Final Straight Up Logic:
Take the Lions to crush the Commanders (Mariota is starting for an injured Jayden Daniels—no chance). Take the Ravens to beat the Vikings (Lamar Jackson is the ultimate chess piece against Brian Flores' blitz-heavy scheme). And if you're feeling frisky, take the Patriots to upset the Bucs. New England’s net EPA is actually higher than Tampa's right now, and Drake Maye is playing with house money.
To get the most out of these picks, check the final injury reports 90 minutes before kickoff, especially for the 49ers vs. Rams game. With Brock Purdy potentially returning, that line could shift the entire landscape of the NFC West. Focus on teams with a positive net EPA and avoid the "zombie" rosters that traded away their captains at the deadline.