Fantasy football is a brutal game of "what have you done for me lately." We're heading into the double digits of the season, and honestly, your bench probably looks like a MASH unit. Week 10 is notoriously tricky because the "obvious" stars start hitting that mid-season wall, and the guys you've been stashing for two months are finally either breaking out or breaking your heart.
By now, the bye week gauntlet is in full swing. If you're a Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes manager, you’re already scrambling because the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and Tennessee Titans are all taking the week off. It’s a massive hole to fill. You've got to be smart, not just reactive.
The Quarterback Conundrum: Why Matchups Beat Names
Most people just look at the projection number and hit "start." That's a mistake. Specifically, if you’re looking at Geno Smith. He’s been solid, but the matchup against the Denver Broncos is basically a nightmare. Denver's defense is leading the league in sacks and they’re fourth-best in pressure rate. Geno is currently ranked 31st in fantasy points per dropback when he’s under duress.
Basically, unless you want to see your QB horizontal for four quarters, find another option.
Who to trust instead?
Take a look at Daniel Jones. I know, I know—the "Danny Dimes" jokes never end. But the reality is that the Atlanta Falcons run a ton of zone coverage (9th highest in the league), and Jones actually has the 13th highest QB rating against zone this year. Plus, they’re playing in Germany. For some weird reason, tight ends and mobile-ish QBs tend to overperform in these international games.
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If you're desperate, even Jaxson Dart of the Giants (if he clears the concussion protocol) or Justin Fields are better bets. Fields specifically matches up well against the Cleveland Browns because they run man coverage 37% of the time, and Fields is currently 8th in the league against man.
Running Backs: Volume is King, but Health is Queen
The J.K. Dobbins news is a gut punch. A midfoot sprain is no joke, and he’s likely out until at least Week 13. If you were leaning on him, the Denver backfield becomes a messy committee. On the flip side, we have to talk about Jonathan Taylor.
The stats don't lie: in the Colts' seven wins this season, Taylor is averaging a ridiculous 28.6 fantasy points. In their losses? Just 11.2. The Colts are currently favorites against the Falcons, so history says Taylor is going to eat.
Start 'Em:
- James Cook (Bills): He’s the rushing leader for a reason. Miami’s defense has been giving up the 6th most fantasy points to RBs lately.
- Rico Dowdle (Panthers): He’s quietly becoming a PPR monster. Against a Saints defense that’s basically given up on the season, he’s a lock.
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): With Terrell Jennings dealing with a knee issue, Henderson is the guy. He just put up 147 yards and two scores. Ride the hot hand.
Sit 'Em:
- Alvin Kamara: It feels like sacrilege to sit him, but the Saints offense is a ghost town. Unless you're in a deep 14-team league, the floor is terrifyingly low right now.
- Breece Hall: He’s still a "must-start" based on talent, but the Jets offense is so stagnant that his ceiling is capped. If you have a high-end RB2 with a better matchup, don't be afraid to make the pivot.
The Wide Receiver Landscape: Targets vs. Reality
Garrett Wilson is the biggest "what if" of the week. He reinjured that knee against the Browns, and with the Jets on a short week, it’s highly unlikely he’s 100%. If he’s out, Adonai Mitchell becomes a very interesting stash, but I wouldn't start him just yet.
One guy you absolutely should be starting is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He’s currently the receiving yards leader (1,793 yards) and the Seahawks are force-feeding him the ball. Even in a tough matchup against Arizona, the volume alone makes him a WR1.
The Sutton/Franklin Debate in Denver
Here’s a nuanced take: Troy Franklin is actually out-targeting Courtland Sutton in their last four games. Franklin has been earning a 20-28% target share recently. However, Sutton is 6th in the league in win rate against zone coverage, and the Raiders run more zone than anyone (83.6%).
This is one of those rare weeks where both are actually viable. Sutton has the higher floor, while Franklin has the "rookie breakout" ceiling.
Tight Ends: The Only Position That Makes No Sense
Tight end has been a wasteland this year, but Week 10 offers some glimmer of hope. Oronde Gadsden II was on a tear before the knee injury, so keep an eye on that MRI. If he’s out, the Chargers might lean more on their running game.
Dalton Kincaid is likely out with a hamstring strain, which is a massive blow to Bills managers. If you're looking for a replacement, Kyle Pitts is actually a solid play. I know we've been burned before, but he’s led the Falcons in targets over the last three games. The Colts secondary is giving up nearly 75 yards per game to tight ends.
NFL Week 10 Start Em Sit Em Quick Reference
| Position | Start | Sit |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Daniel Jones, Justin Fields | Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa |
| RB | Jonathan Taylor, Rico Dowdle | Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Courtland Sutton | Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle |
| TE | Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz | Tyler Warren (tough matchup) |
| D/ST | Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos | Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings |
Defensive Streamers: Exploiting the Sacks
If you’re streaming defenses, the Cleveland Browns are the play. They generate sacks at the second-highest rate in the league, and they're facing a Jets team that allows sacks at the fourth-highest rate. It’s a math problem that ends in fantasy points.
The Denver Broncos are also a must-start. They lead the league in sacks and face a Raiders team that is essentially a turnover machine. Honestly, the Denver D might outscore your WR2 this week.
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Actionable Next Steps for Your Roster
- Check the Concussion Protocol: Monitor Jaxson Dart and C.J. Stroud closely. If they don't go, your pivot options (Daniel Jones/Davis Mills) need to be rostered by Thursday.
- Scour the Waiver Wire for Handcuffs: With Dobbins and Kincaid likely out, guys like Jackson Hawes (TE, Bills) and Audric Estime (RB, Broncos) are immediate adds.
- Watch the Injury Reports: Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams are the big names to track. If Adams is limited with that back injury, Puka Nacua's ceiling goes through the roof.
- Mind the Bye Weeks: Don't wait until Sunday morning to realize you have three starters on a bye. Make your moves now while the "desperation" hasn't set in for the rest of your league.
Fantasy seasons are won and lost in these middle weeks. Don't be the manager who loses because they played a "name" over a "matchup." Take the points where you can get them, even if it means starting a New York Giant.