Everyone thinks they know exactly how the season is going to go in early September. You’ve seen the charts. You’ve read the glossy magazines. But honestly, nfl week 1 rankings are usually just a giant exercise in collective delusion based on what happened eight months ago.
Take 2025.
We all sat there looking at the Philadelphia Eagles and the Baltimore Ravens as the undisputed kings of the hill. PFF had the Ravens at number one. The consensus was that Lamar Jackson, freshly bolstered by Jaire Alexander in the secondary, was basically untouchable. Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks were sitting way down at number 22 on some major lists. Fast forward to now, and we’re looking at a Seahawks team that just finished 14-3 with a defense that basically physically bullied the rest of the NFC.
Predicting the NFL is a mess. It's beautiful, but it's a mess.
The Fallacy of the Returning Champion
It’s easy to just put the Super Bowl winner at the top and call it a day. Last September, the Eagles took that spot. They had the roster, the momentum, and Saquon Barkley coming off a year where he touched the ball nearly 500 times. But the "king of the hill" effect is real. Every team they played treated it like a playoff game.
By the time the actual playoffs rolled around, the landscape looked completely different. The Los Angeles Rams, who started in the middle of the pack, ended the regular season with a 96.2 PFF grade—the best in the league. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua didn't just meet expectations; they shattered them.
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Why do we miss this every year?
The Coaching Ripple Effect
We undervalue coaching changes until they hit us in the face. Ben Johnson moving to the Chicago Bears was a massive story, yet the rankings were hesitant because of Caleb Williams’ uneven rookie year. Then the season starts, and suddenly that offense is a juggernaut because Johnson brought that Detroit "grit and creativity" to the Midway.
Mike Macdonald in Seattle is the other prime example. In his second year, he took a unit that was "fine" and turned them into the 2020s version of the Legion of Boom. They allowed 275 points all season. That’s the lowest for that franchise since 2015.
How the Offseason Trades Broke the 2025 Rankings
If you want to know why your nfl week 1 rankings looked like trash by October, look at the trades.
- DK Metcalf to the Steelers: This move was a shocker. Seattle "dumped" him for a second-round pick. Most analysts thought Seattle was waving the white flag. Instead, the Seahawks got more efficient, and Metcalf became a nightmare for the AFC North.
- Laremy Tunsil to the Commanders: Adam Peters pulled a Trent Williams-style heist. Getting a franchise left tackle for Jayden Daniels changed Washington’s entire trajectory, even if they were the "oldest roster in the league" on paper.
- Micah Parsons to the Packers: This was the nuclear bomb of the offseason. It jumped Green Bay up an entire tier instantly.
We tend to rank teams based on their "average" outcome. But the NFL is a league of outliers. One trade, one ACL tear, or one coordinator hire can swing a team's power rating by 10 spots in a single weekend.
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The Quarterback "Recency Bias" Trap
We are obsessed with who won the MVP last. Josh Allen won it in 2024, so the Bills were a permanent fixture in the top three of every nfl week 1 rankings list. Don't get me wrong, Allen is a human cheat code. But the Bills had massive questions on defense and a receiving corps that felt like a "wait and see" situation.
Contrast that with the Denver Broncos. Bo Nix in year two. A defense that was statistically top five in almost every metric. Yet, people were "mild doubters" until they actually saw Denver win 14 games.
The market always overvalues the superstar QB and undervalues the elite unit.
Real Talk on the "Sleepers"
Everyone loves a sleeper, but most people pick the wrong ones. They pick the flashy rookie wideout.
The real sleepers of 2025 were the grinders.
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- Sam Darnold in Seattle: Nobody had "Darnold leads an elite passing attack" on their bingo card. But he found a rhythm with Jaxon Smith-Njigba that resulted in a league-leading 1,793 yards for JSN.
- The New England Defense: Under interim coordinator Zak Kuhr, they were the "feel-good story" of the year. They weren't flashy. They just didn't let you score.
Actionable Insights for Evaluating Rankings
If you’re looking at rankings and trying to figure out who is actually good, stop looking at the record from last year.
Watch the trenches. The Bears overhauled their line with Joe Thuney and suddenly Caleb Williams looked like a Pro Bowler.
Check the "Brain Drain." Teams that lose both coordinators usually take a massive hit in September.
Ignore the ADP. In fantasy and in power rankings, people get attached to names. Names don't win games; scheme and health do.
The biggest mistake is thinking the NFL is static. It’s not. It’s a weekly survival gauntlet. The team that is number one in September is almost never the team holding the trophy in February.
To get a real edge in evaluating the league, you have to look for the teams that made "boring" improvements. A better left guard is worth more than a flashy WR3. A defensive coordinator who knows how to disguise a blitz is worth more than a veteran QB on his last legs.
Stop trusting the consensus. The consensus is usually just a mirror of what happened last year, and in the NFL, last year is ancient history.
Next Steps for Your Football Analysis:
- Analyze Offensive Line Continuity: Check how many starts your favorite team's front five had together last season. If they are all returning with a new elite guard (like the Bears did), expect a massive jump in QB efficiency.
- Track Defensive EPA per Play: Ignore "total yards allowed." Look at Expected Points Added (EPA) to see which defenses actually stop scoring threats in the red zone.
- Evaluate Year 2 Quarterbacks: Focus on the "Year 2 Leap" for guys like Bo Nix or Jayden Daniels rather than overpaying for aging veterans in your projections.