The wait for football is always agonizingly long, but there’s nothing quite like that first Thursday in September. Honestly, Week 1 is a mess. It's the only time of year when we’re all operating on nothing but vibes, preseason rumors, and the lingering trauma of last year’s bad beats. Everyone thinks they know what's going to happen based on who "won" the offseason, but the field usually has other plans.
Looking back at the NFL week 1 picks 2025, the narrative was dominated by one massive, franchise-altering move: the Micah Parsons trade. Seeing him in a Green Bay jersey still feels wrong to some, but it set the stage for a Week 1 slate that was as chaotic as it was profitable for those who looked past the headlines.
The Kickoff Nightmare: Why the Eagles Were a Trap
The season started with a heavyweight bout: the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Philadelphia Eagles. If you’ve followed the NFL for more than five minutes, you know the defending Super Bowl champ—which the Eagles were in this scenario—usually gets a massive "bump" from the public.
Most casual bettors saw a 7-point spread and thought, "Easy money for Philly." But the Cowboys, even without Parsons, came out with a chip on their shoulder. George Pickens made his Dallas debut and immediately looked like the WR1 they desperately needed to take the heat off CeeDee Lamb. The final score was 28-24 in favor of Philly, but Dallas covered that spread with ease. It’s a classic Week 1 lesson: talent doesn't always equal chemistry in week one.
Brazil and the Global Chaos
Then we had the Friday night special in São Paulo. The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil. Talk about a travel nightmare. Everyone was picking Mahomes because, well, he’s Mahomes. But playing in a different hemisphere changes things. The turf was slick, the atmosphere was soccer-esque, and the Chargers' defense—now under Mike Vrabel—looked disciplined for the first time in years.
📖 Related: LA Rams Home Game Schedule: What Most People Get Wrong
The Chargers pulled off a 21-17 upset. If you picked Kansas City to cover -3.5, you learned a hard lesson about international travel and "neutral" sites.
The Rookie QB Mirage
Week 1 is always the time when people over-hype rookie quarterbacks. In 2025, all eyes were on Cam Ward in Tennessee. The Titans were 8.5-point underdogs against a Denver defense that basically looked like a brick wall during the preseason.
People love a Cinderella story, but the reality of the NFL is that rookies usually get "welcomed" to the league with a lot of dirt in their facemasks. Denver’s defense didn't just win; they smothered Ward.
Why the "Home Dog" is Still King
If you want to win at NFL week 1 picks 2025, you have to embrace the ugly.
👉 See also: Kurt Warner Height: What Most People Get Wrong About the QB Legend
- The Raiders at Patriots: Drake Maye was the talk of Foxborough, but the Raiders brought a nasty defensive line.
- The Jets and Steelers: It was the "Justin Fields Revenge Tour" vs. a Jets defense that was supposed to be elite.
- The Browns vs. Bengals: Cincinnati has a history of starting slow. They actually bucked the trend this year, but the public was terrified of them.
Honestly, the Bengals at -5.5 was one of the few "chalk" picks that actually landed comfortably. Joe Burrow looked healthy, and for once, the Bengals didn't treat September like it was still the preseason.
The Most Underrated Game: Ravens at Bills
Sunday Night Football gave us the rematch everyone wanted. Baltimore at Buffalo. This wasn't just a game; it was a physical war. Derrick Henry in a Ravens uniform is a terrifying sight for any linebacker.
The Bills were slight home favorites, but the Ravens’ run game is just too much to handle in the humid early-September heat. Baltimore ground them down, winning 24-21. This was a "sharp" play—smart bettors knew that while Josh Allen can win a game on his own, the Ravens' ball control is a Week 1 cheat code.
The Mistake You’re Probably Making
Most people look at the "Star Power" and forget about the "Trench Power." Take the Falcons vs. Buccaneers game. Everyone was talking about Kirk Cousins and Kyle Pitts. Nobody was talking about the Falcons’ offensive line depth after Kaleb McGary went down.
✨ Don't miss: Juan Carlos Gabriel de Anda: Why the Controversial Sportscaster Still Matters
Tampa Bay’s pass rush ate them alive. The Bucs were 2.5-point underdogs and won outright. It wasn't because Baker Mayfield is better than Cousins; it was because the guys in the dirt won the battle.
Actionable Strategy for Future Weeks
Don't let one week of data ruin your season. Here is how you should handle the fallout from your week one picks:
- Stop Overreacting to Blowouts: If a team won by 30 in Week 1, they are almost certainly going to be overvalued in Week 2. Sell high.
- Trust the Injury Report, Not the Name: If a star receiver is "active" but didn't practice all week, he’s a decoy. Fade the hype.
- The "Second Year Leap" is Real: Look at guys like Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels. By Week 3 or 4, they'll be better, but Week 1 is almost always a struggle against veteran defensive coordinators.
- Weather Matters Early: Early September in places like Miami or New Orleans (even with the dome, the humidity outside is brutal) affects the "big" guys more than the skill players.
Week 1 is about survival. If you came out even, you did better than most. The goal isn't to be right about everything; it's to be less wrong than the guy setting the lines. Keep your eyes on the injury reports and don't fall in love with the preseason highlights.
Now, go look at the Week 2 lines. They’re already moving because of what happened on Sunday.