It’s January 15, 2026, and if you’re looking at the Divisional Round bracket thinking something feels off, you aren’t alone. The vibe is different. Usually, this is the week where we talk about "survive and advance," but this year, it's more like "who has enough healthy bodies to actually field a special teams unit?"
Injuries haven't just hampered teams this season; they’ve fundamentally rewritten the power rankings. Honestly, the NFL update on injuries heading into this weekend is less of a report and more of a medical journal. We’re seeing legitimate Super Bowl contenders leaning on guys who were on practice squads in November.
Take the Buffalo Bills, for instance. Sean McDermott is basically playing a game of defensive Tetris right now.
The Buffalo Defensive Crisis: Who is Actually Left?
The Bills are heading to Denver on Saturday, and the defensive huddle is going to look a little sparse. Head coach Sean McDermott officially ruled out safety Jordan Poyer (hamstring) and cornerback Maxwell Hairston (ankle) on Thursday. That hurts. But the real headache is the linebacker spot. Terrel Bernard is sitting there with a "questionable" tag due to a calf issue that has been nagging him since the Wild Card round.
If Bernard can’t go, or if he’s limited, the middle of that Buffalo defense is a massive target for Bo Nix and the Broncos' short-passing game.
There is a tiny silver lining for Bills Mafia, though. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver (bicep) and wide receiver Curtis Samuel (elbow) have been practicing. Oliver was limited on Wednesday and Thursday, so he’s likely a game-time decision. You’ve gotta think he plays, given the stakes, but how much can he actually push with a bicep tear?
San Francisco’s Trent Williams Dilemma
If you want to know why the 49ers looked a bit shaky in the Wild Card win over Philly, look no further than the left side of the line. Trent Williams is the heart of that offense. When he’s not there, Brock Purdy’s internal clock has to speed up by about half a second.
Williams missed the regular-season finale with a hamstring strain. He came back for the Wild Card game, but he’s still showing up as a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice. The team moved him to "full" on Thursday, which is a massive sigh of relief for Niners fans. But hamstrings are liars. They feel great until you have to kick out against a speed rusher in the third quarter.
The Niners are also monitoring:
- Ricky Pearsall (WR): Dealing with a knee issue. He's been limited all week.
- Ji'Ayir Brown (S): He’s missed practice time with a hamstring of his own.
- Fred Warner (LB): He’s been the big story all month. He’s technically "designated to return" from his ankle injury, but he hasn't been activated yet.
Seeing Warner practicing off to the side is encouraging, but Eric Kendricks is still the man in the middle for now. Honestly, playing a Divisional game without Fred Warner feels like trying to win a shootout with a water pistol.
The Texans and Patriots: A War of Attrition
The New England Patriots hosting the Houston Texans on Sunday is the "Injured Reserve Bowl."
Houston is hurting in the worst possible places. Nico Collins and Justin Watson are both in concussion protocol. If C.J. Stroud is missing his top targets, he’s going to have to rely heavily on Joe Mixon, who is only recently back from his own foot injury.
On the flip side, New England’s offensive line is a mess. T-Morgan Moses (knee) and Thayer Munford Jr. (knee) both missed practice on Wednesday. You cannot protect a young quarterback with two backup tackles against a DeMeco Ryans defense. It’s just not going to happen.
Patrick Mahomes and the Long Road Back
We can't talk about the NFL update on injuries without mentioning the biggest star in the league. Patrick Mahomes isn't playing this weekend, and it still feels weird.
Mahomes gave an update on Wednesday regarding his recovery from a torn ACL and LCL. He’s aiming for Week 1 of the 2026 season. "I want to be ready for Week 1," he told reporters. He’s maximizing his rehab goals, but the Chiefs' absence from this round of the playoffs is a direct result of that injury. It’s a stark reminder that in the NFL, your entire season can vanish in one awkward landing.
Why the "Next Man Up" Mantra is Mostly a Lie
Coaches love to say "next man up." It sounds gritty. It sounds tough.
But let’s be real: there is no "next man up" for a Micah Parsons or a Trent Williams. When the Packers lost Parsons to an ACL tear back in December, their season essentially evaporated. They didn't win another game.
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The drop-off from an All-Pro to a backup isn't just a slight dip in talent; it's a structural failure. It changes the play-calling. It changes how the safeties have to cheat toward one side of the field. It changes the rhythm of the quarterback.
Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
If you’re betting on these games or just trying to win your playoff fantasy challenge, here is what you need to do:
- Watch the Saturday Morning Activations: Most of the "questionable" guys (like Terrel Bernard or Fred Warner) won't have their status confirmed until the very last minute. If a player isn't activated from IR by Saturday afternoon, they aren't playing.
- Fade Offensive Lines with Multiple Injuries: If both starting tackles are out (like the Patriots' situation), expect the "Under" on total points. The offense will be stagnant.
- Monitor the Surface: The Bears and Rams are playing at Soldier Field. That grass is notoriously tough even in good weather. In mid-January, it’s a minefield for guys with existing ankle or knee issues.
The reality of the NFL in 2026 is that the healthiest team usually holds the Lombardi Trophy, not necessarily the most talented one. Keep your eyes on the practice reports Friday afternoon—that's where the real games are won.